Another MVP in the NL Central

Joey Votto won the NL MVP award today, beating out another NL Central first baseman who's won a few MVP awards. Throw in the king-sized Prince of Milwaukee, who's had a couple of MVP-caliber seasons himself and is only 26 years old, and there's quite a collection of first basemen in the NL Central.

Oh, and then there are the Cubs, who have a payroll of over $100 million committed for next year but don't have anything resembling a first baseman on their roster right now. But don't worry, Cubs fans, because we still have Jim Hendry as our GM, and he'll find a way to...what's that? The new ownership is not adding payroll next year? Great, so now the Cubs won't have anything resembling a major league first baseman on their Opening Day roster either. Fifth place, here we come again!

We're Number One (in the State)!

First Southern Illinois, then Northern Illinois, and now the NUrds ("Chicago's Big Ten Team", my a$$). If nothing else, the Illini can lay claim to being the best team in the state of Illinois this year, and as a result we truly deserve the Land of Lincoln Trophy. Just don't let Zook get another contract extension based on it.

And after two losing seasons, it's going to feel good to do this again...

Former Cubs Second Baseman Gets Minor League Manager Job in Phillies Organization

Seriously - after everyone got their underwear in a bunch about this, where's all the outrage over this story?

Illinois Loses at Home to a Team that Lost to South Dakota

Wow, did this one have Ron Zook's fingerprints all over it:

Stupid penalties? Check.

Stupid/gutless play-calling? Check.

Poor use of timeouts? Check.

Letting the worst offense in the Big Ten go 80 yards into the wind in two minutes for the game-winning touchdown? Well, that's a new one, I guess.

Another winnable home game pi$$ed away? Check.

Yet another season without a bowl game? Check, and mate.

'Cause it's a Big...House: Illinois-Michigan Preview and Prediction

With our obligatory Commodores reference out of the way...

It’s a battle for bowl eligibility in Ann Arbor on Saturday. At game’s end, either the 5-3 Illini or the 5-3 Michigan Wolverines will have earned a 6th win and the right to play a 13th game this year. Even though both teams have identical records, they are currently going in opposite directions. Imagine the two teams are in a shopping mall: Illinois, with back-to-back blowout wins, would be on the “up” escalator; while Michigan, with three straight losses, would be right next to the Illini, but on the adjacent “down” escalator. As a historical note, the Illini will also be striving for a third consecutive win over Michigan, which hasn’t happened since the Orange and Blue won four straight over the Maize and Blue from 1950 to 1953.
When Michigan has the Football
Two words – Denard Robinson.
OK, that’s not much of a write-up, so I’ll continue. Michigan’s quarterback is leading the Big Ten in total rushing yards and is second in the nation in rushing yards per game (160.88). When he’s not running wild on opposing defenses, he’s also found time to pass for 188.6 yards per game. While Michigan’s three-game losing streak has slowed the “Denard Robinson for Heisman Trophy” bandwagon, he’s still a very dangerous player, and the Illini defense hasn’t encountered a two-way threat of his caliber yet this year. Thanks largely to Robinson, the Michigan offense has been a force, averaging over 35 points per game, good for 19th in the nation. Aside from a 17-point effort against Michigan State, they’ve scored at least 28 points in every game this year. Vic Koenning’s defense enters Saturday ranked 12th in the nation in scoring defense (16.8 points per game), but their run of strong performances will be put to the test.
When Illinois has the Football

It’s a good thing for Michigan that their offense is so good, because their defense is awful. It’s true that the Wolverines have battled injuries this year, especially in the secondary, but even accounting for that they’ve been awful. Michigan is 10th in the Big Ten in scoring defense (30 points per game); last week, Penn State, which looked toothless in scoring only 13 points against the Illini, scored 41 points against Michigan. In other words, this is a bad time for the Wolverines to be facing a red-hot offense. The Illini are coming off their best offensive showing of the year in the win over Purdue, and Michigan may not be the only team in Saturday’s game that boasts a two-way threat at quarterback. Last week, Purdue focused on stopping Mikel Leshoure, and they did hold him to 23 yards rushing. However, Nathan Scheelhaase foiled that strategy by having the best game of his young career, totaling 118 yards rushing and 195 yards (and 4 TDs) passing. You can sense that Scheelhaase, the reigning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week, is growing more and more comfortable running the offense as the season progresses, and that Paul Petrino is showing increased confidence in Scheelhaase by opening up the offense for him. And if UMass was able to hang 37 points on the Wolverine defense in the Big House earlier this year, we might be looking at another banner game for the Illini offense this week.
Prediction
The Wolverines have been installed as 3-point favorites in Saturday’s game. I have a feeling that if the names on the jerseys were erased, the IlIini might be favored (it would certainly help perceptions if our last three-game win streak against Michigan hadn’t started during the Truman administration). A glance at the rest of Michigan’s schedule, with heavyweights Wisconsin and Ohio State looming, shows that Michigan really needs to win on Saturday. While a loss to the Illini wouldn’t be fatal to their bowl hopes – they could still get a 6th win against Purdue next week – a 6-6 record on the heels of last year’s season-ending collapse, coupled with more NCAA troubles, might lead to the end of Rich Rodriguez’s tenure as Michigan coach (on the plus side, with a 6-6 record it would be a short trip for Michigan fans to see their team play in the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl in Detroit). All this is a roundabout way of saying that I think the Wolverines are backed into a corner and will give us everything they have. But looking objectively at the two teams and how they’ve played recently, I also think that the Illini should be able to put enough points on the board to overcome whatever damage Michigan’s offense is able to inflict on the Illini D. Bowl eligibility, here we come!

Illinois 33
Michigan 24

And then there were three....

I started following baseball in 1977. With the Texas Rangers victory in this year's ALCS, there are only three teams that I have not seen reach the World Series: the Seattle Mariners, the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals, and you know the other one.

But hey, if you believe the Ricketts calendar, we've only gone one year without a World Series appearance. That's progress!

Illini Football - Midseason Review

The Illini limped into the midpoint of the 2009 season with a 1-5 record – and the one win was against Illinois State. The big topic of discussion was who would succeed Ron Zook as head coach. Thanks to the generosity (or is it the stinginess?) of Ron Guenther, Zook managed to survive another year, but with new coordinators on both sides of the ball and a freshman quarterback, my expectations weren’t too high for 2010. However, despite facing one of the toughest schedules in the country, the Illini have managed a 3-3 start and have given fans reasons for optimism, both for this year and into the future. We have hit the halfway point of the 2010 regular season (“regular” being the key word, I hope), so it’s a good time to take a look at some of the key first-half numbers to see how the Illini have done and where they can get better.

18.5 – Points per Game Allowed by the Illini Defense

Vic Koenning’s schemes, and the way his players have executed them, have allowed the Illini defense to take a quantum leap forward from last year, when they allowed a conference-worst 30.2 points per game. They’ve accomplished this despite having to cover for several injured players in the defensive backfield. Even when facing superior talent, the defense has helped keep the Illini close in every game so far, and they’ve been the biggest reason for the team’s improved play this year.

8 – Turnovers Forced

Amid the well-deserved accolades for the defense, one area in which they haven’t improved is forcing turnovers. In six games, the Illini have forced only eight turnovers, which puts them on the exact pace of last season, when the Illini forced 16 (in 12 games). While it seems like nitpicking, and while some of this may be attributable to the missing defensive starters, it would be nice to see the defense step things up here, creating shorter fields and easier scoring opportunities for the offense in the season’s second half.

21.3 – Points per Game Scored by the Illini Offense

Unfortunately, so far this year Paul Petrino’s new offensive system has not had the same positive impact as Koenning’s new defense. The Illini rank second-to-last in the Big Ten in points per game. One particular problem has been in the red zone. Yes, the Illini have scored on 18 of their 19 red zone possessions this year (the only time they failed to convert was at the end of the Michigan State game), but 9 of those 18 have been field goals. Of course, some of that can be attributed to playing it safe, thanks to having a freshman quarterback running things (see below), but the offense needs to do a better job of finishing drives and not having to settle for so many “threes”.

73.7 – Nathan Scheelhaase’s Quarterback Rating in Illini Losses

When Scheelhaase has struggled, the Illini have struggled along with him – he’s thrown seven interceptions and just one touchdown pass in the three losses. Conversely, when he has passed well the Illini offense has been much more effective – in the three Illini wins, Scheelhaase’s rating is a sparkling 159.8. Like any freshman quarterback, Scheelhaase has had his ups and downs this year, but while he doesn’t have to play like Tony Eason or Jeff George for the Illini to win, we can’t afford to have him emulating Mark Hoekstra or Tim Lavery either. As teams continue to pack the line of scrimmage to stop Mikel Leshoure and the Illini’s powerful running attack, Scheelhaase will have to make enough positive plays with his arm to keep opponents honest.

92.3 – Derek Dimke’s Success Rate on Field Goals

The Illini began 2009 with Matt Eller on field goal duties, and the results were disastrous. Eller made only 4 of the 11 kicks he tried, including missing twice inside 30 yards, and didn’t make a kick longer than 38 yards. Dimke took over for Eller toward the end of the season and made all five of his attempts (including kicks of 48 and 44 yards). He has continued his fine work this year – his combination of accuracy (only one miss in 13 attempts) and strength (2 for 2 on kicks of 50 or more yards) has given this team a potent weapon. (Note – in the interest of fairness, I will say that I’m forever grateful to Matt Eller for this moment).

46.7 – Yards per Punt by Anthony Santella

To me, Santella has been one of the biggest surprises on this year’s team and an underrated factor in their success. He’s the leading punter in the Big Ten, and his net punting average this year (41.1 yards per kick) is higher than his career gross punting average (39.4 yards per kick) entering this season. A punter like Santella can help bail the team out when the offense stagnates and give the Illini an edge in field position battles, which is key when you have a solid defense. But Santella (and Dimke) will both have the same challenge in the second half – when the temperatures start dropping late in the season, the winds pick up and kicking becomes more unpredictable. The two kickers have given the Illini a lift in the first six games; whether they can continue their success will be a big story line in the second half.

57.2 – Penalty Yards per Game

In the last two years, the Illini have finished last (2009) and second-to-last (2008) in the Big Ten in penalty yards per game. This year’s team has improved slightly (to 8th), but penalties have still proven costly to the Illini – not just in losses (especially Ohio State) but also in wins (85 yards in Illini penalties made the Northern Illinois game more difficult than it otherwise should have been). Some teams are good enough to overcome penalties – Michigan State is last in the Big Ten with 73 yards per game, for instance – but Illinois is not at that level yet. The Illini will need to show more discipline in the next six games to make things easier on themselves.

Zero – BCS Top-25 Teams Remaining on the Schedule

During the first six games this year, the Illini faced three teams (Missouri, Ohio State, and Michigan State) currently ranked in the top eleven of the BCS standings. Looking forward, none of the last six opponents appear in the BCS top 25. Our toughest remaining game is probably against Michigan in Ann Arbor – you know, in the stadium where UMass scored 37 points this year. Even though the Illini won’t win every game left on the schedule, they will at least have a legitimate chance to win each week from here on out.

13 – The Number of Games We Hope Illinois Plays This Year

Beginning with the 2006 season, the NCAA has allowed teams to play 12 regular season games instead of 11. Since the rule change took effect, the Illini have only played a 13th game (i.e. a bowl game) once. Considering the way the Illini have played so far in 2010, and looking at the games left on the schedule, it would be a major disappointment if the Illini didn’t get a 13th game this year. My prediction – the Illini will go 4-2 in the second half of the season (I won’t say which are the four and which are the two), and we will get to see the Illini in a bowl game.