Illinois - Penn State II: The Reckoning

[Intoned in deep, movie preview guy voice] In a world turned upside-down, Penn State is rolling and the Illini are staggering. Now, as the Orange and Blue prepare to take up arms against the Nittany Lions on friendly turf, one question remains: can the Illini flip the script and save their season? The day of reckoning is at hand. [Loud orchestral note].

Illinois - Penn State II: The Reckoning. Opens Tuesday night, unless it's postponed by a blizzard. This game is not yet rated because we don't know how much swearing Illini fans do while watching the game until after it starts.

[Back to my not-so-impressive voice] A lot has changed in the 3 weeks since the first Illini-Penn State meeting. The Illini entered that game on a three-game winning streak, but have now lost four of five and are edging into bubbleville. On the other side of the equation, Penn State's conquests of the Illini, Michigan State, and Wisconsin have propelled them into NCAA tournament consideration. So there's quite a bit at stake for both teams when they meet on Tuesday night.

For the Illini, this was supposed to be part of a stretch of "should-win" games before entering the meatier second half of the Big Ten schedule. But with the Illini coughing up Thursday's game at Indiana, this game becomes even more crucial. With five road games left on the docket (including trips to top 25 opponents Purdue, Minnesota, and Ohio State), the Illini can ill afford to lose any of their remaining home games. Of greater concern, given the fragile mental composition of this team, is that a loss to Penn State on Tuesday could send them skidding out of control and out of the NCAA tournament picture completely.

As for the Nittany Lions - first, I guess we can stop calling the Illini's loss to them in January a bad loss, unless you think losing to a team that's ahead of you in the standings constitutes a bad loss. You read that right: Penn State (5-4) is now ahead of Illinois (4-4) in the Big Ten standings. Penn State has won 6 of the last 11 meetings between the teams, and with the Big Ten's second leading scorer (Illini-killer Talor Battle) on their side, they'll certainly enter Tuesday's game brimming with confidence - especially knowing that a sweep of a fellow mid-tier conference mate could go a long way toward putting themselves back into the NCAA tournament for the first time since the Nittany Lions roster was loaded with Crispin brothers.

Prediction: The 2010-11 Illini have made a habit of playing to the level of their competition, good or bad. Call me crazy, but I think this can work in the Illini's favor. Penn State has been playing well of late (four wins in their last six games, with the two losses being a three-point loss at Ohio State and a referee-screw-job special at Purdue), so if the pattern holds it's more likely that they'll bring out the best in the Illini on Tuesday. And unlike Ohio State, Penn State isn't good enough to win at the Assembly Hall if the Illini bring their "A" game. I'm thinking the Illini can win this one, but if they lose, look out below.

Final Score - Illini with more points than Penn State

Thank You, Chicago Bears

Now that we're almost one week removed from the NFC Championship Game, I think it's time for a thank-you note. No sarcasm, no snide comments toward the coaching staff and/or the front office (there'll be plenty of time for that later) - just a few words of thanks to my favorite pro football team.

I had ridiculously low expectations for the Bears this year, and even after their quick start I was only thinking they'd be a way to bridge the gap until Illini basketball started. But they kept overachieving right into a division title and within one game of the Super Bowl. Most importantly, their run into the postseason helped to distract me from Bruce Weber and his Bumbling Illini for an extra month.

So thank you, Chicago Bears, for a fun 2010 season, and let's hope for better things in 2011 (or whenever the lockout ends). And until then...

N-I-T!! N-I-T!!

Wow. Playing a team that just got blown out by Iowa and is missing two starters, and we still find a way to lose. And I just love watching other teams' fans rush the court on us. Great job guys! Great job Coach Weber!!

So will we have to travel for our first round NIT game, or can we start at home this time?

Illini Face Crucial Stretch

The Illini basketball team is about to embark on a crucial three-game stretch, which you already knew since you read the headline of this blog post. Why is it so crucial? The Illini are ranked in the top 25 and sitting at 4-3 in the Big 10, which looks OK for now, but they still have road games against Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan State, and Ohio State on the docket. There's a good chance the Illini will lose all four of those games, which would leave the team with ten losses (and an 11-7 conference record) even if they won every other game. One more loss in any of the other games - and a team that's capable of losing to UIC, which is still winless in the Horizon League, is capable of losing to any Big 10 opponent - could leave the team needing to win at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament to avoid another bubblicious Selection Sunday.

My point is that if the Illini want to go into the Big Ten Tournament with an NCAA tournament bid locked up, it would behoove them to win the next three games against Indiana (away), Penn State (home), and Northwestern (away). Let's start with Indiana, which will be without Verdell Jones and Maurice Creek against the Illini on Thursday. The Illini are good at playing to the level of their competition. Sometimes that's helpful, sometimes it's not. But it will be tough for the Illini to play down to Indiana's level (10-10 overall, 1-6 in the Big Ten) if the Hoosiers are missing two starters. For the first time since Kendall Gill, Steven Bardo, and Ervin Small roamed the hardwood (1988-1990), the Illini will win a third straight game in the fake Assembly Hall.

Prediction: Illini 70, Hoosiers 60

What do we want? More Lovie Smith! When do we want it? Soon!

I've been trying to let Sunday's game digest, but it's still sitting in my stomach like unrefrigerated cottage cheese. So you can imagine the elation I felt when I saw this story. Apparently, there are two things you can be sure of: (1) every time a bell rings, an angel gets its wings; and (2) every time the Bears lose a playoff game, Lovie Smith gets a contract extension.

Bottom line - if Jerry Angelo is true to his word, we can look forward to botched replay requests, wasted timeouts, and baffling personnel decisions (Todd Collins as your #2 QB? Really? Did you miss the four-interception game against Carolina, the worst team in the league? It was in all the blogs) for years to come!

Illini-Buckeyes Wrap-up

You'd think that since I picked Illinois to lose to Ohio State today, I wouldn't be too upset - they even came closer than I predicted. But when you factor in the eight point second half lead that got away, this loss represents a major missed opportunity.

So how come Ohio State loses last season's Player of the Year (Evan Turner) and comes back even better this year, while Illinois returns all five starters (and seven of their top nine scorers) from last season and adds three top 100 recruits (including a McDonald's All-American) but looks like they're headed for the NCAA tournament bubble again?

Bruce Weber - making Selection Sunday nerve-wracking since 2007.

Weekend Sports Extravaganzapaloozafest

We've got a big sports weekend cued up.

First, on Saturday, the Illini get a chance to do something they haven't done since the 2004-05 season - beat the #1 team in the country (Ohio State). And because the Buckeyes beat the top-ranked '04-05 Illini team, this would be a nice way (for the fans and for Bruce Weber, at least) to turn the tables. A Buckeyes fan might argue that we've already taken our revenge by beating their #1 ranked football team in 2007, and that the schools are even (and it's not like the Buckeyes will ever have a chance to defeat a #1 ranked Illinois football team). To that hypothetical fan, I'd say that I'd like to see some basketball-specific comeuppance tomorrow. Unfortunately, here are the scores of the last four OSU-Illini games in Champaign:

2007 - 62-44 L

2008 - 74-58 L

2009 - 67-49 W

2010 - 72-53 L

So the Buckeyes have really had our number of late, and Jared Sullinger is exactly the kind of player (highly skilled widebody) that we struggle to control. Even if we do somehow slow him down, Jon Diebler will kill us with a bunch of threes. Sorry, fellow Illini fans, I just don't see it happening. Prediction: Chestnuts 75, Illini 63

As for the other big weekend event - first, I'd like to point out that this is technically not the oldest NFL rivalry. That would be the Bears and Cardinals, who first played on November 28, 1920 (when the Cardinals were Chicago's team and the Bears were Decatur's team). But this is the NFL's "longest standing rivalry," with the teams having met every year (except the strike-shortened 1982 season) since 1921. There's not much I can add to the hype about the game, except to say that the last time one of my teams played a hated rival for a chance to play in the championship game was in the 1989 NCAA tournament. That was probably the worst sports fan experience I've ever had (even worse than the 1984 and 2003 Cubs) - knowing that the Illini were better than Michigan and would have crushed Seton Hall in the Finals, but having to see them lose and not get that chance.

I wish I could be more optimistic about Sunday's game, but even at home, against a team the Bears did hold in check in the two meetings this year, I just have a bad feeling that I'm going to have to live through another round of losing the big game to a team I can't stand. Maybe someday the Cubs will beat the Cardinals in the NLCS on their way to winning the World Series....OK, now that you're done laughing...Prediction: Packers 21, Bears 13.

Bonus Prediction: No way the Steelers lose twice at home to the Jets this year - Steelers 24, Jets 14.