Deep Thoughts on Tonight's NFL Draft

I'd love it if an elderly woman went into Radio City Music Hall tonight, grabbed the microphone from Roger Goodell, and said "shut the door, there's a draft in here!"

Oh, and congrats to former Illini standout defensive lineman Corey Liuget on being drafted in the first round. Best of luck to you in San Diego, except when you're playing against the Bears. Oh, whom am I kidding - you won't need any luck against the Bears' crappy offensive line.

Cubs Lean on Russell for Emergency Start - Again, and Again, and Again....

Tough break for the Cubs, losing starting pitchers Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner to injuries so early in the season, so they'll have to rely on LOOGY James Russell to make an emergency start tonight against...wait a minute, didn't I write about this before? [Checks old blog posts] Yes, I did - two weeks ago; Russell is actually going to be making his third "emergency" start tonight, after allowing 8 earned runs over 5 2/3 innings in his other two "emergency" starts. You mean to tell me, Jim Hendry and Mike Quade, that you've had all this time to fix this hole in the rotation, and in the entire Cubs organization (to say nothing of the entire world of organized baseball) you can't come up with even one pitcher who can give your team a decent chance at a win?

If Hendry or Quade got a flat tire on their car, they would put on the spare tire and then continue driving hundreds of miles on it as if nothing had happened.

The 2011 Chicago Cubs - Now With Even More Injuries!

The Cubs began the 2011 season with a full complement of healthy starters, unlike the Cardinals (sans Adam Wainwright), the Brewers (sans Zack Greinke) and the Reds (sans Johnny Cueto). Well, that advantage over our division rivals lasted all of about a week, with Randy Wells and Andrew Cashner each going on the 15-day disabled list after making only one start. I hear you saying, "fifteen days, that's not so bad. We're still in good shape, right?"

Wrong! Now comes word that Wells will be out 3 1/2 to 4 weeks, and Cashner will be out up to 6 weeks. And just when you thought it couldn't get any worse than throwing away a game against the Astros by having LOOGY James Russell make an emergency start, you see that the Cubs are looking at veteran washouts Doug Davis (career WHIP 1.50) and Ramon Ortiz (career ERA 4.93) as rotation filler to potentially throw away lots of games until Wells and Cashner return. It's almost enough to make you wish Carlos Silva were still around. But he's no longer on the market, having signed a minor league deal with the Yankees, where he's probably laughing his big fat...contract off at the Cubs right now.

Manny Being Ban-nied? No, He'll Retire Instead

Manny Ramirez would rather retire from baseball than serve a 100 game drug-related suspension. And what does this have to do with the Cubs, you ask? Well, in 2008, the Dodgers were limping through the first half of the season and Ramirez was half-assing his way out of the good graces of Red Sox fans' hearts. The Dodgers decided to overlook these shortcomings and trade for Ramirez, who promptly put up an obscene .396/.489/.743 line (that's a 1.232 OPS and a 221 OPS+) in 53 games to lift his new team to an NL West title. And in the NLDS against the Cubs...you know.

In college basketball, if a team uses a player who later turns out to be ineligible, they have to forfeit any games they won with that player in their lineup. So since the Dodgers were using a guy who should have been ineligible (twice caught using PEDs), can MLB make them forfeit those postseason games and award the 2008 NLDS to the Cubs? And while we're at it, can we then have a do-over of the NLCS, Cubs vs. Phillies? And since Phillies pitcher JC Romero was suspended for PEDs too, by the same logic we can put the Cubs retroactively into the 2008 World Series! Of course, even in my made-up scenario, I'm sure the Cubs would still find a way to lose the World Series against Tampa Bay.

Jereme Richmond, ex-Illini: The End of a (Very Short) Era

In November, 2006, less than two months after Eric Gordon stabbed Illini nation in the heart by reneging on his commitment to the Orange and Blue, Bruce Weber secured a commitment from a talented freshman named Jereme Richmond shortly after watching Richmond play his first high school game. It's fair to say that Richmond may have been the most highly anticipated recruit in Illini history. Illini fans waited four years for Richmond to arrive on campus, during which time he never wavered in his commitment. As other recruits, starting with the highly-regarded class of 2009, began to jump on board, Illini fans and the national media could sense something special building in Champaign for the 2010-11 season. Richmond was expected to be a big part of that - a versatile, athletic player with a mean streak that the team's upperclassmen lacked.

Instead of something special, however, we got more of the same from the Illini basketball team. Maddening losses to inferior teams. A .500 record in conference play. The inability to execute in close games. Chemistry problems. It all added up to a 20-14 season which ended in the "third round" (f/k/a "the second round") of the NCAA tournament. And unfortunately, Richmond was a big part in the season, but for all of the wrong reasons. He was as inconsistent as the team, occasionally putting up big numbers (witness his double-double against Ohio State), but often disappearing for long stretches. He was benched for the loss at Wisconsin after leaving the team for a few days, and didn't play in either of the team's NCAA tournament games after being suspended for unspecified rules violations. And today, after several weeks of smoke coming from the Interwebs, came the announcement that the Jereme Richmond era will end after just one season, as Richmond will enter the NBA draft and not return for his sophomore season in college.

I've been pretty rough on Bruce Weber this year and I still think he should be fired, but I'm finding it hard to fault his handling of Richmond. Clearly, Weber had to recruit him and stick with him - fans would not have been pleased if another highly-touted in-state player got away - even though Richmond had several unpleasant incidents during his high school career including getting kicked off his team for, among other transgressions, fighting with a teammate. (Does that count as foreshadowing?) If Weber did anything wrong with Richmond, it was not giving him a starting spot in the lineup right away, as future high-level recruits may wonder if they'll have to sit behind a grinder like Bill Cole if they come to Illinois. But as a short term proposition, giving more minutes to Richmond probably wouldn't have helped us win many more games this year, as Richmond never really played up to his ranking, and it's possible (probable?) that Richmond would have left after this year no matter how Weber had dealt with him.

Unfortunately, Richmond's departure leaves the 2011-12 Illini with a huge hole to fill. The team already has to replace four seniors, and now there are only two returning players on the roster (Brandon Paul and DJ Richardson) who have logged significant minutes. With Richmond gone there are no proven inside players on the team, and we'll be relying on a transfer from Bradley who missed last season with an injury (Sam Maniscalco) to help freshman Tracy Abrams run the point. The incoming 2011 class is talented, versatile, and deep but lacks star power - it's not like we're bringing in multiple McDonald's All-Americans next year.

The last time Illinois made wholesale changes to their roster like this was the 2002-03 season, but that year's freshmen (including Dee Brown, James Augustine, and Deron Williams) could lean on seniors Brian Cook (and Sean Harrington). By contrast, the 2011-12 Illini will have only one senior - Maniscalco, who has yet to suit up for the team. To me, the current scenario is more reminiscent of the 1998-99 Illini team, which replaced five senior starters with several talented (but not super-talented) underclassmen. That team, of course, finished in last place in the Big Ten. One saving grace for next year - the 98-99 Big Ten was loaded (seven NCAA tournament teams, 2 final four teams), while the 2011-12 Big Ten will be weak, which might help keep the team from sinking too far in the standings. Still, this doesn't look like the kind of situation in which a coach on the hot seat - and Weber will be on the hot seat next year - would want to find himself. Given all of the uncertainty surrounding the program right now, if the team struggles in 2011-12 it's likely that the end of the Jereme Richmond era will be followed by the end of the Bruce Weber era.

Year Two - A Cubs 2011 Season Preview

"Year Two" of the Ricketts regime will begin on Friday, and whoever scheduled the Cubs season opener for April Fool's Day has a great sense of humor. Thanks to payroll constraints, the Cubs return most of the same cast of characters from "Year One" (which looked like just about every other year I've lived through as a Cubs fan). Jim Hendry was able to bring in a new first baseman, a new/old face to help out in the bullpen, and a middle-of-the-rotation starter, and he deserves praise for biting the bullet on Carlos Silva and removing his bloated contract from our roster, guaranteed money be damned. But will the changes Hendry made be enough to vault the Cubs into serious contention in the competitive NL Central?

The Pitching Staff

The Cubs may lack a true ace, but they have a solid (and healthy) starting rotation, which is more than the Brewers, Reds, and Cardinals can say right now. Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Matt Garza, and Randy Wells should each give the Cubs between 180 and 200 quality innings. Much was made of Garza's poor performance in spring training, but unless he's hiding an injury there's no cause for alarm. Marlon Byrd hit over .400 during spring training, but I haven't seen anyone writing about how he's going to threaten Ted Williams this year. Koyie Hill went 1 for 32 during spring training, but...OK, bad example, but you get my point - spring training is such a small sampling of games that it's hardly predictive of a player's performance for the year. Andrew Cashner is the only unknown in the rotation right now, and you could do a lot worse than having him as your fifth starter (see Silva, Carlos or Estes, Shawn). The Cubs are also strong in the back of the bullpen with Carlos Marmol closing and Kerry Wood and Shawn Marshall setting up. The middle relief crew (Grabow, Samardzija, Russell, Mateo) is a big pile of "meh", but that's true of pretty much any team's middle relievers.

The Offense

Besides Geovany Soto and Starlin Castro, the Cubs don't have any offensive players on the upside of their careers. They do have some aging veterans who have put up big numbers in the past (Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Pena), and the team will need a big bounceback from at least two of those players (and maybe all three) to contend in 2011. I've said it before and I'll say it again - Pena's move from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park makes him a good bet to dramatically improve on last year's numbers. I also think Aramis Ramirez (.271/.321/.526 post-All-Star Break in 2010 - which is similar to his career .282/.340/.499 line) has another big year left in him. But Soriano is getting more and more one-dimensional on offense (he had fewer stolen base attempts than AJ Pierzynski did last year), so he's going to have to top 30 homers (a total he hasn't reached since 2007), for him to be a net positive in the lineup.

As for the projected lineup (at least if the Opening Day lineup is any indication), I like seeing Kosuke Fukudome in the leadoff role, where his patient approach (he finished second on the team in 2010 with a .371 OBP), plays well. But if Mike Quade really plans on using Byrd (.429 SLG in 2010, career .423 SLG) in the number three slot all year when other teams in the NL Central will be using the likes of Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, or Ryan Braun, I'll guarantee that this team will finish no better than they did last year. I'd move Ramirez and Soto up to the 3 and 4 spots and move Byrd down to 6th or 7th in the order, next to Soriano. Everything else looks OK to me, although it would look better if the Cubs had an actual everyday second baseman.

Outlook

The 2011 pitching staff should be able to keep the Cubs in most games, just like last year, when the Cubs led the NL in quality starts. But I can't see the Cubs generating enough offense to be able to push them past all three of the teams that finished ahead of them last year. The Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals each boast at least one MVP candidate in the middle of their lineups, but the Cubs don't. So just like last year, I see between 74 and 78 wins, a 4th place finish, and one more "Wait Till Next Year" for Cubs fans.

Six Years Ago Tonight...

Saturday, March 26, 2005, was the date of one of the greatest moments (if not the greatest moment) in Illini basketball history. I still enjoy watching these highlights of the comeback against Arizona, but now it depresses me when I get to the end because it makes me realize (1) how far we've fallen as a program, and (2) that as long as Bruce Weber is our head coach, we'll never get to see our team cut down the nets again.