Remember the glorious 2005-06 offseason? The Cubs were coming off a disappointing 79 win season and were looking for a CF upgrade - Corey Patterson, their primary CF in '05, had posted a "this is not a typo" .602 OPS (and a Koyie Hill-esque 54 OPS+). Jim Hendry's solution? Trade away three pitching prospects, including Ricky Nolasco, for Juan Pierre, who was in the last year of his contract. The acquisition of Pierre spurred the Cubs to a memorable season, as they came achingly close...to finishing ahead of the Pirates and out of last place. After 2006, Pierre left via free agency, while Nolasco has developed into a solid (and relatively inexpensive) starting pitcher, giving the Marlins 10.8 WAR (thanks, FanGraphs) over the last 4 seasons (for comparison's sake, Pierre has compiled 9 WAR since the beginning of the 2006 season).
Why am I rehashing this painful history? Well, it looks as if Jim Hendry hasn't learned from his past mistakes. Again, we have a Cubs team coming off a disappointing season with little hope of contending for a division title in the upcoming year. The solution this time? Trade three of our top 10 prospects, including the organization's minor league pitcher of the year Chris Archer and infielder Hak-Ju Lee, for Rays' starter Matt Garza. On the surface, Garza looks like a pretty good pitcher - in 2010 he won 15 games in the rugged AL East, with a respectable 3.91 ERA. But look a little deeper, and you'll see that he's nothing special:
2010 Randy Wells - 194 1/3 IP, 6.67 K/9, 2.92 BB/9, 4.09 xFIP, 3.3 WAR
2010 Matt Garza - 204 2/3 IP, 6.60 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, 4.51 xFIP, 1.8 WAR
Remember that WAR is context, park, and league neutral, so any gains that Garza might see from not having to face the powerful Yankees and Red Sox lineups as often will likely be offset by the Cubs mediocre defense and by Garza having to work in a less-pitcher-friendly environment (he's moving from the best pitcher's park in baseball in 2010 to one of the worst). In essence, Hendry is mortgaging the Cubs future for a starter who will provide a slight upgrade to the Cubs pitching staff. If the Cubs were anywhere close to being a contender in 2011 (or if this were a trade for a Zack Greinke/Cliff Lee type of pitcher), this might make sense, but Garza is basically another #3 starter, and the Cubs will probably be spending 2011 battling the Astros for 4th place. And by the time the Cubs are in position to be serious contenders again (2012, maybe?), Archer might be a better pitcher (and will be a much cheaper pitcher) than Garza. Holding on to Archer now would also mean that the Cubs could use him as a trading chip later if they are in contention and a bigger prize comes on the market (think 1984 Rick Sutcliffe or 2008 CC Sabathia).
On balance, I've been OK with the Cubs off-season moves so far (signing Pena and Wood), because Hendry hadn't yet done anything to handcuff the Cubs past 2011, leaving open the possibility of big changes next offseason when several big contracts (Fukudome, Silva, Grabow, Ramirez) expire. But this move demonstrates that even after all his years on the job, Hendry still has no idea how to build a winning team (if he needs a lesson, he should look to the team he just traded with). What's worse is that the Ricketts family is in penny-pinching mode, so we're probably stuck with Hendry until his contract expires (after the 2012 season), and until Hendry is gone the Cubs will continue to be the Pirates with a higher payroll.
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