Illini vs. Minnesota Preview: Please Make It Stop

Congratulations, Ron Zook - after a fantastic start to the 2011 season, your team's five game losing streak has completely crushed my spirit.  Of course, I will be rooting for the Illini to beat the Golden Gophers on Saturday, but for me this game will have the same feel as the Illini basketball team's NIT game against Stony Brook in 2010.  If we win, I probably won't be excited as much as relieved that we didn't suffer a humiliating loss.

Fortunately, even though the Illini went from Columbus Day to Thanksgiving without winning a game, we still have a better team than Minnesota.  If the Illini defense could hold Wisconsin's powerful offense in check, they should be able to stop the Golden Gophers' offense.  I think we'll get just enough production from our offense and for a change we won't shoot ourselves in the foot on special teams.  It will add up to a win and a little momentum going into whatever crappy bowl game we get invited to.  Yippee.  But more importantly, it means that the regular season will be over,  so we'll be that much closer to getting an answer from Mike Thomas on whether he wants Zook to be a part of the future of the football program.  And that answer should be something to get excited about.

Predictions
Illinois 24
Minnesota 10
Ron Zook will be fired after the game and will not coach our bowl game

Illini vs. Wisconsin Preview: Ron Zook's Last Stand?

 

But does Mike Thomas agree?

One of the most painful outcomes for Illinois football in recent years came in the 2009 season finale against Fresno State.  Nearly two years later, it's still difficult to believe that our Senior Day was ruined on a last-second, tipped-pass-for-a-two-point-conversion reception by a Bulldogs offensive lineman.  That loss capped off a 3-9 season for the Illini (Ron Zook's second straight losing season), and it seemed all but certain that we would never see Zook on the Illinois sideline at Memorial Stadium again.  But thanks to the generosity, insanity, and/or stupidity of then-AD Ron Guenther, Zook survived, and we've now seen him coach an additional 13 games at Memorial Stadium.  This Saturday's clash against #15/#17 Wisconsin will be his 14th since that Fresno State game.  But unless the Illini can score a victory over the Badgers, it's difficult to believe that current AD Mike Thomas will give Zook the opportunity to extend that number, no matter what Thomas is saying now.  By the way, I've heard that ESPN was planning to bring the blimp to Champaign for Saturday's broadcast, but in a cost-cutting move they've instead decided to get their aerial shots of the game by strapping cameras to the vultures circling over Zook's head.

Given that atmosphere, is there any hope for the Fighting Zookers on Saturday?

Illini Basketball: A 2011-12 Season Preview

It seems like it's been forever since the Illini basketball team played in a game that counted, but on Friday, the Illini will open their season against Loyola, and I'm looking forward to having meaningful basketball games to talk about again.  That certainly beats going over what's happened to our basketball team during the last five seasons.  I've already made my feelings on Bruce Weber known, and I don't want to spend too much time re-hashing that discussion, because I'm tired of it.  I'm tired of not feeling invincible on our home court.  I'm tired of being a bubble team, needing to win games in the Big Ten Tournament just to make the NCAA tournament.  But most of all, I'm tired of our team being completely out of the picture when it comes not only to national championships, but also to Big Ten championships.  So probably the best news about the new season is that one way or the other, by March we should have our answer on the "fire Bruce Weber" question.

OK, now that I'm done talking about the past, it's time to look at the present. 

Bears After the Bye - What to Expect in the Second "Half" of the Season

It's odd how things work out sometimes.  Four weeks ago, the Illini were undefeated, and it looked to me as if the Bears were on the fast track to mediocrity after a Monday night loss to Detroit dropped them to 2-3.  But since then, the Illini have lost three straight games, crushing any hope of New Year's Day football, while the Bears have a two-game winning streak and renewed playoff hopes.  When the Illini were up the Bears were down.  Now, the Bears are up, and the Illini are down.  You know who I am?  Even Steven!

With the Bears are coming out of the bye week at 4-3 (the same record they had at the bye week in 2010), the next two games will most likely determine which way the 2011 season breaks.  A win over the Eagles on Monday night would give the Bears the tiebreaker edge over three of their potential competitors (Eagles, Falcons, Bucs) for wild card spots.  While a loss at Philadelphia wouldn't be fatal to a Bears' playoff run, the next game, at home against the Lions (another potential wild card competitor), is the real key to the team's postseason chances.  If the Bears are swept by Detroit there's no way the Bears will catch the Lions, and the Bears would have no way to make the playoffs other than as the NFC's #6 seed.  But a Bears victory would go a long way toward helping them finish ahead of the Lions, especially since Detroit still has to play Green Bay twice.

With the almost-second half of the schedule about to get underway (it would be much cleaner if the bye week fell at the exact midpoint of the season, but what can you do about that?), I figure this is a good time to try to guess if the Bears will return to the postseason.  I originally had the Bears finishing at 8-8, but there's been a slight change in my forecast.  I'm assuming the Bears will follow last year's formula, in which after the bye week, Mike Martz "chose" to go with more conservative, run-oriented game plans instead of the pass-happy, let's-get-Jay-Cutler-killed game plans he prefers.  Based on that assumption, here's how I see things unfolding the rest of the way, game by game:

Illini vs. Penn State Preview: A Valley Doesn't Sound Like a Good Place to Stop a Slide

In the middle of the 1995 Big Ten season, the Illini suffered back-to-back disheartening home losses:  first to Michigan State (a 27-21 loss); and then to Northwestern (17-14).  The next game on the schedule was a road trip to Iowa City. I expected to see a blowout, and that's exactly what happened.  Only the Illini weren't the victims, they were the perpetrators - the good guys routed the Hawkeyes 26-7.  I know everyone's upset about the current state of the Illini football team (rightfully so), and in the wake of the current two-game losing streak Ron Zook's name is starting to appear on "hot seat" lists again.  But if a Lou Tepper-coached team could stop a two-game losing streak as a big underdog in a hostile environment, is it out of the question for a Zook-coached team to do the same thing when the Illini (6-2, 4-4) travel to Happy Valley on Saturday to face Penn State (7-1, 4-0)?

Illini vs. Purdue Preview: Cannon Fodder?

I guess we all knew it was going to end sometime.  And since the Illini aren't going to finish the season undefeated, now we'll find out whether last Saturday's loss to Ohio State was just a bump in the road, or...whatever the opposite of a bump in the road is...the beginning of a giant sinkhole, I guess.  This week, the Illini leave home for just the second time in 2011 as they make the short trip to West Lafayette to face the Purdue Boilermakers (3-3, 1-2).  And for the third straight week, the winner takes home a trophy.  At stake this week - the Purdue Cannon (not pictured, left, but I'd love to win a trophy that looked like that).  Last year, the Illini claimed the Cannon for the first time since 2002 with a 44-10 victory, but that was an injury-riddled Purdue team we knocked around in Champaign.  Will a healthy bunch of Boilermakers be able to turn the tables on the Illini this year?

Illinois vs. Ohio State Preview: Illibuck-ing the Trend?

Imagine how the Illini teams of recent years would have reacted to one of the following scenarios:

• The opposing team returns the opening kickoff for a touchdown.
• While holding a four-point lead, the Illini commit a turnover inside their own five yard line.
• Ron Zook makes one of his patented* boneheaded coaching decisions.

*Actually, I'm not sure if it's patented, but I'm pretty sure he at least has the application on file at the U.S. Patent & Trademark Office.

Now, imagine all three of those things happening in the first half of the same game - no way the Illini win, right?  But this year's version of the Illini was able to overcome all of those mistakes and coast to an easy 41-20 win over Indiana last week.  Granted, the Hoosiers are terrible, but there have been plenty of occasions during the past few seasons where mistakes have cost the Illini wins over terrible teams.  No, I think what we're seeing here is a genuinely good Illinois football team.  With six wins, the Illini are already bowl-eligible, and it's just the fifth time in the last 16 years that the Illini can say that they'll be playing an extra game at the end of the season.  If the Illini can beat Ohio State (3-3, 0-2) on Saturday in Champaign, it would mark just the seventh time in the last 25 years that the Illini have managed a seven-win season.  But that would mean beating the Buckeyes at home - a feat the Illini haven't accomplished in twenty years.  Can the Illini pull it off and capture the Illibuck trophy for the first time since 2007?

Cardinals 1, Phillies 0. It's Happening!

OK, so commenting on a Cardinals-Phillies playoff game isn't technically within the jurisdiction of my blog.  Of course, since this is a Cubs blog, commenting on any playoff game isn't going to fall within my jurisdiction.  But with the Cardinals advancing to the NLCS by virtue of Friday night's 1-0 win over the Phillies, I wanted to make sure to call your attention to a prediction I made in a Bleed Cubbie Blue Game Thread last week:

Just watch - The Packers sneaked into the playoffs on the last day of the season and went on to win the Super Bowl. Now the Cardinals are going to sneak into the playoffs on the last day of the season and win the World Series.

Thank you, Cardinals.  You're going to make me look like a supergenius!  And thanks, Phillies and Diamondbacks, for leaving me with a Brewers vs. Cardinals NLCS!

Illini vs. Indiana Preview - We're Leaving Home

Take away the names on the jerseys. If you told most college football fans that a 5-0, top-20 team had a game on Saturday against a team that had lost all four of its games against FBS competition so far this year (including losses to juggernauts Ball State and North Texas), how many would pick against the 5-0 team? Right - no one would; everyone would pick them to win big. But when that 5-0 team is #16 (or #19) ranked Illinois, a team that has left its supporters feeling disappointed so many times over the years, it's somewhat understandable why some people (including people who write for this blog) might feel a little nervous about the Illini's prospects against Indiana on Saturday. While Illini football fans have grown accustomed to nebulous feelings of impending doom, there are actual reasons to feel nervous:

• The trip to the fake Memorial Stadium in Bloomington will mark the first time the Illini have traveled away from Champaign this season, so we don't know how the Illini will react when faced with a "hostile" crowd (hostile being a relative term in this case, since a lot of Indiana fans probably aren't even aware that they have a football team).  
• It's true that the Hoosiers are 1-4 so far this year (the win came against South Carolina State, an FCS school with a losing record).  However, their four losses have been by a combined 19 points.  On the other hand, the Illini have won their last three games by a total of nine points. In other words, the Hoosiers might not be as bad as their record indicates, and the Illini might not be as good as their record indicates. 
• While most of his predecessors have been rather anonymous, first-year Hoosiers Head Coach Kevin Wilson hasn't taken long to show that he's a jackass, but he's a jackass who might have extra motivation to stick it to the Illini. 

So is there legitimate cause for concern regarding Saturday's game?  If the Hoosiers are to spring the upset on Saturday, here are some areas where they might make it happen:

Bears Packers Preview - This Time It Counts...A Lot Less Than Last Time

The NFL's longest-standing rivalry resumes this weekend, as the Bears prepare to host the Packers on Sunday.  Of course, the stakes will be a lot lower than they were the last time these two teams met at Soldier Field, and even a Bears win on Sunday wouldn't erase or make up for what happened last January (just like Illinois beating North Carolina in a 2005-06 regular season game didn't make up for what happened when the two teams met in the 2005 NCAA Championship Game).  But we can't change the past (yet - although I do have one of my best men working on it as we speak), so we'll have to hope for a better future - one that includes the Bears and Packers tied at 2-1 in the standings.  Can the Bears make that happen?  There are some encouraging signs:

Illinois vs. Western Michigan Preview: Is it a Trap?

The Illini are coming off of their biggest non-conference home win since...when?  Louisville in 2001?  Eventual National Champion Colorado in 1990?  Whatever benchmark you choose to compare it to, last Saturday's electrifying 17-14 win over Arizona State propelled the Illini into the top 25 for the first time since 2008.  Now, I don't want to be too much of a Debbie Downer here.  But while Illini fans are excited (and rightfully so) about the results of the Arizona State game itself, it doesn't mean that we should start talking about this as a "special season" just yet.  The offense disappeared for a large chunk of the game, and had it not been for a heroic effort by the defense (including a couple of fortuitous bounces that became turnovers) and a missed 32-yard Arizona State field goal, we might be hearing a different narrative this week.  But fate did smile on the Illini, who are 3-0 for the first time since 2001, and are looking to go to 4-0 for the first time since 1951 this Saturday against Western Michigan.  To put that in perspective, the last time the Illini had a 4-0 start, the Cubs were only six years removed from their last World Series game.

So now that the Illini have overcome one bugaboo (the inability to win a closely played big game on a national stage), they'll have to overcome another one against the Broncos on Saturday:  the let-down game.  During the Ron Zook era, the Illini have displayed a particularly aggravating habit of following a big, emotionally charged win with a flat performance against a lesser opponent:  after ruining Michigan State's Homecoming in 2006, the Illini blew a late lead to lose their own Homecoming game against Indiana; in 2007, the Illini followed back-to-back home wins over Penn State and Wisconsin by laying an egg in Iowa City; and after an exhilarating last second win over Iowa in 2008, the Illini lost their next game at Ford Field against...ahem...Western Michigan.  Oh, and one more thing - this week's game is sandwiched in between a game against a ranked team and a game against Big Ten rival Northwestern, so it also has the makings of a dreaded "trap game".

Where does that leave us against this year's incarnation of Western Michigan?  The Broncos enter this game with a 2-1 record, with big wins over relatively similar competition (Central Michigan) and inferior competition (Nicholls), as well as a 34-10 road loss against Michigan, a team in the same league (literally and figuratively) as the Illini.  A look at the box score from that game at the Big House can give us a good idea of what to expect on Saturday.  In a game shortened by severe weather, the underlying numbers looked pretty even - 288 total yards for Michigan, 279 for Western Michigan.  However, while the Broncos were able to move the ball up and down the field, they committed three costly turnovers - two fumbles and one interception - and Michigan tallied two defensive touchdowns in the game.  That could be bad news for the Broncos, as the Illini defense has already forced eight turnovers this season, including three against Arizona State.  Also of note - in three quarters, Western Michigan allowed 190 yards on the ground against the Wolverines (on only 26 carries, for over seven yards per rushing play).  That could also bode well for the Illini's run-oriented offense.

Prediction
To make my call on this potential trap game, let's turn to the ultimate authority.  What do you think, Admiral Ackbar - is this a trap?

It's NOT a trap!
Illini 27
Broncos 17

Illinois vs. Arizona State; Bears vs. Saints: Buy One Football Game Preview, Get the Second One Free!

Both the Illini and the Bears dominated their opposition last weekend, but both teams will face tougher tests this weekend:  the Illini will be hosting a top-25 team (Arizona State), while the Bears journey to the Superdome, where the Saints of football play.  Rather than write out separate previews (and predictions), I'm just going to combine previews for both games into one huge honkin' post.

Illinois vs. South Dakota State - a Preview of Sorts

We're hunting wabbits!

For the second consecutive year, the Fighting Illini host a Missouri Valley Conference school in their second non-conference game.  Last year, it was Southern Illinois; this year, it's South Dakota State.  But unlike last year, this year's schedule featured a winnable opening game, so a win on Saturday would move the Illini to 2-0, which would be their first 2-0 start since 2005.

I usually like to take a look at each team's statistics in my pregame write-ups as a way to learn about the opponent and to figure out how the match-ups will play out.  But, please - we're talking about South Dakota State here.  They're an FCS team (and not a particularly good FCS team at that).  So here's what I've got for you instead:

• South Dakota State's team nickname is the "Jackrabbits", and their cleverly-named mascot is Jack Rabbit.
• South Dakota State actually has an alum in the Pro Football Hall of Fame - Jim Langer, who played center for the Miami Dolphins' Super Bowl teams during the 1970s.  Colts' kicker Adam Vinatieri also played his college football for the Jackrabbits.  
• In 2010, the Jackrabbits finished with the exact same overall record (5-6) and conference record (4-4) as Southern Illinois did.  You know, the same Southern Illinois team the Illini beat 35-3 last year.
• The Jackrabbits nearly blew a 22-point 4th quarter lead against mighty Southern Utah in their home opener last week.  They managed to hold on for a 29-28 win by breaking up a two-point conversion play with two seconds left in the game.

Prediction
Under Ron Zook, the Illini are 5-0 against FCS teams, and all of those wins have been by at least 21 points.  Unless the two teams decide to not play an actual football game on Saturday, and instead go with an "alumni who currently play in the AFC South" field goal kicking contest between Vinatieri and Neil Rackers, this will be easy.

Illini 38
'rabbits 6

2011 NFL Predictions

One of the best parts of being a sports fan is the way the seasons overlap, so that just as the baseball season winds down, football gets going, and when football ends, basketball takes over and leads right into spring, when baseball begins again.  It's a beautiful "Circle of Life" kind of thing.  True, it didn't work out so well for me this year, seeing as how the Cubs haven't played a meaningful game since, what, Mother's Day?  But that's not important right now.  What is important is that the NFL season kicks off on Thursday night.

In an attempt to predict the 2011 NFL season, I created an elaborate computer simulation that played out every game on the regular season schedule, as well as the postseason.  Unfortunately, since I have no idea how to write a computer program, I ended up with a Cincinnati vs. Carolina Super Bowl matchup.  So I decided to junk that whole set of predictions and just wing it instead.  And without further ado, here are my forecasted 2011 records for every team - and I'm giving out playoff prognostications too, at no extra charge!  Bears fans, I hope you're sitting down for this.

Illini/Arkansas State Preview - Football's Back!

The 2011 Fighting Illini are presenting quite a conundrum to our nation's college football experts.  Some see a team with a soft schedule and a dynamic, dual-threat sophomore QB and expect the Illini to top last year's 7-6 record.  Others see the loss of three key would-be-seniors to the NFL draft and expect the Illini to take a step backwards.  The good news is that we won't have to wait much longer to see who's right, as the 2011 season will kick off on Saturday when the Illini face the Arkansas State Red Wolves at the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium.  I'm excited, because I finally get a chance to write about a real game involving someone other than the craptacular 2011 Chicago Cubs.

Year Two - A Cubs 2011 Season Preview

"Year Two" of the Ricketts regime will begin on Friday, and whoever scheduled the Cubs season opener for April Fool's Day has a great sense of humor. Thanks to payroll constraints, the Cubs return most of the same cast of characters from "Year One" (which looked like just about every other year I've lived through as a Cubs fan). Jim Hendry was able to bring in a new first baseman, a new/old face to help out in the bullpen, and a middle-of-the-rotation starter, and he deserves praise for biting the bullet on Carlos Silva and removing his bloated contract from our roster, guaranteed money be damned. But will the changes Hendry made be enough to vault the Cubs into serious contention in the competitive NL Central?

The Pitching Staff

The Cubs may lack a true ace, but they have a solid (and healthy) starting rotation, which is more than the Brewers, Reds, and Cardinals can say right now. Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Matt Garza, and Randy Wells should each give the Cubs between 180 and 200 quality innings. Much was made of Garza's poor performance in spring training, but unless he's hiding an injury there's no cause for alarm. Marlon Byrd hit over .400 during spring training, but I haven't seen anyone writing about how he's going to threaten Ted Williams this year. Koyie Hill went 1 for 32 during spring training, but...OK, bad example, but you get my point - spring training is such a small sampling of games that it's hardly predictive of a player's performance for the year. Andrew Cashner is the only unknown in the rotation right now, and you could do a lot worse than having him as your fifth starter (see Silva, Carlos or Estes, Shawn). The Cubs are also strong in the back of the bullpen with Carlos Marmol closing and Kerry Wood and Shawn Marshall setting up. The middle relief crew (Grabow, Samardzija, Russell, Mateo) is a big pile of "meh", but that's true of pretty much any team's middle relievers.

The Offense

Besides Geovany Soto and Starlin Castro, the Cubs don't have any offensive players on the upside of their careers. They do have some aging veterans who have put up big numbers in the past (Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Pena), and the team will need a big bounceback from at least two of those players (and maybe all three) to contend in 2011. I've said it before and I'll say it again - Pena's move from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park makes him a good bet to dramatically improve on last year's numbers. I also think Aramis Ramirez (.271/.321/.526 post-All-Star Break in 2010 - which is similar to his career .282/.340/.499 line) has another big year left in him. But Soriano is getting more and more one-dimensional on offense (he had fewer stolen base attempts than AJ Pierzynski did last year), so he's going to have to top 30 homers (a total he hasn't reached since 2007), for him to be a net positive in the lineup.

As for the projected lineup (at least if the Opening Day lineup is any indication), I like seeing Kosuke Fukudome in the leadoff role, where his patient approach (he finished second on the team in 2010 with a .371 OBP), plays well. But if Mike Quade really plans on using Byrd (.429 SLG in 2010, career .423 SLG) in the number three slot all year when other teams in the NL Central will be using the likes of Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, or Ryan Braun, I'll guarantee that this team will finish no better than they did last year. I'd move Ramirez and Soto up to the 3 and 4 spots and move Byrd down to 6th or 7th in the order, next to Soriano. Everything else looks OK to me, although it would look better if the Cubs had an actual everyday second baseman.

Outlook

The 2011 pitching staff should be able to keep the Cubs in most games, just like last year, when the Cubs led the NL in quality starts. But I can't see the Cubs generating enough offense to be able to push them past all three of the teams that finished ahead of them last year. The Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals each boast at least one MVP candidate in the middle of their lineups, but the Cubs don't. So just like last year, I see between 74 and 78 wins, a 4th place finish, and one more "Wait Till Next Year" for Cubs fans.

Bill Self Used to Coach at Illinois? No Way! Illinois-Kansas Preview

As Illinois gets set to face #1 seed Kansas on Sunday night, you may hear something about Kansas coach Bill Self being the coach at Illinois before Bruce Weber was. I think there's some sort of federal law that anyone who writes about college basketball has to mention it in his/her preview of the game, and I'm sure we'll hear about it at least thirty times during tonight's broadcast. I don't want to spend any time in a federal pound-me-in-the-ass prison, so to be safe, I've gotten that out of the way right up front.

Now, before we get to tonight's game, I need to say one more thing about Friday's win over UNLV. Of course I'm glad we won, and I'm especially happy for the seniors for winning an NCAA tournament game. But some of the extreme Weber supporters are going a little over the top in their celebration, as if the win validates everything they've said to prop up Weber, when all we did was win an 8/9 seed game in the first round. Friday's win doesn't erase the last four years of mediocrity, and it doesn't prove that Weber is a better coach than Lon Kruger (unless you also want to argue that Mike Davis is a better coach than Mike Krzyzewski because Indiana once beat Duke in the NCAA tournament). And it bothers me that if Illinois had played all year like they did on Friday, then they wouldn't have to face a team like Kansas in the second round. So let's try not to get too carried away.

OK - finally on to the actual game preview. I could run numbers or player matchups, but they'll favor Kansas. I could talk about the coaching matchup, but Kansas has that in their favor too. The only chance Illinois has tonight is if they play the way they did in the first half on Friday for the entire game. But Illinois still hasn't won back-to-back games since the first week of January, and the odds of them merely playing two great games in a row at this point (to say nothing of winning them both), especially when the second one is against a team that a lot of people are picking to win the NCAA tournament, will be too much to overcome. As much as I'd love to see Illinois playing next weekend, I'll have to say that the ride ends tonight.

Kansas 78

Illinois 62

One Very Last Chance - Illinois vs. UNLV Preview

Last week, I wrote that the Big Ten tournament gave the Illinois senior class a chance to clean the slate and re-write their legacy. Of course, not only did they fail to clean the slate, but by staging a late-game collapse against Michigan they pretty much wrote the same legacy in permanent marker. However, the NCAA Tournament's selection committee was generous - by placing Illinois against #8 seed UNLV, they gave the Illini a fairly even shot to win their opening round game. The last group of 4-year players at Illinois to not win an NCAA tournament game graduated in 1980. Can this year's seniors take advantage of their chance to avoid that fate?

What to expect
Some things that jump out from looking at the profiles of UNLV and Illinois:

Both teams play tough defense, which isn't surprising considering who the coaches are. Lon Kruger's UNLV squad is 15th in the nation in defensive efficiency rating, while Bruce Weber's Illini are 23rd. The two teams are virtually identical in effective field goal percentage defense - UNLV is 26th in the nation; Illinois is a hair behind (27th). One red flag - UNLV is 17th in the nation in turnover percentage, but Illinois is 259th. This may give the Runnin' Rebels an edge by allowing them to pick up some easy points, which could be crucial in a game in which points will likely be hard to come by.

On offense, the teams couldn't be more different. Illinois, for better or worse, is a team that relies on jump-shooting. This results in the team not getting many opportunities at the foul line - the Illini are 334th (out of 345 teams) in the country in percentage of points per game from free throws. UNLV is pretty much the opposite of Illinois. They don't rely on perimeter shooting, as they are only 276th in the country in percentage points received from 3-point shots. However, they do get to the foul line significantly more often than Illinois does, and again, in a close game with tough defense those easy points could become a factor.

How I see it
The good news - I don't think we'll see a late-game collapse like in last week's Michigan game. The bad news - that's because I don't think Illinois will be able to pull away from UNLV for long enough to build a twelve-point lead. This one could very well shape up like the Illini's game at East Lansing last month. That was a tight game throughout, with neither team getting a significant advantage at any point, and the game was tied with four minutes left. But in those final minutes, Michigan State made plays, Illinois didn't, and the Spartans won.

I see a similar flow to this one, with the game being within one possession or even tied coming out of the final TV timeout. Unfortunately, at that point the Illini will go into one of their patented offensive dry spells while UNLV will make enough plays, including drawing a few fouls and sinking some key free throws, to survive and advance. And, sadly, our NCAA tournament drought will reach five years.

UNLV 62

Illini 57

Illinois - Penn State II: The Reckoning

[Intoned in deep, movie preview guy voice] In a world turned upside-down, Penn State is rolling and the Illini are staggering. Now, as the Orange and Blue prepare to take up arms against the Nittany Lions on friendly turf, one question remains: can the Illini flip the script and save their season? The day of reckoning is at hand. [Loud orchestral note].

Illinois - Penn State II: The Reckoning. Opens Tuesday night, unless it's postponed by a blizzard. This game is not yet rated because we don't know how much swearing Illini fans do while watching the game until after it starts.

[Back to my not-so-impressive voice] A lot has changed in the 3 weeks since the first Illini-Penn State meeting. The Illini entered that game on a three-game winning streak, but have now lost four of five and are edging into bubbleville. On the other side of the equation, Penn State's conquests of the Illini, Michigan State, and Wisconsin have propelled them into NCAA tournament consideration. So there's quite a bit at stake for both teams when they meet on Tuesday night.

For the Illini, this was supposed to be part of a stretch of "should-win" games before entering the meatier second half of the Big Ten schedule. But with the Illini coughing up Thursday's game at Indiana, this game becomes even more crucial. With five road games left on the docket (including trips to top 25 opponents Purdue, Minnesota, and Ohio State), the Illini can ill afford to lose any of their remaining home games. Of greater concern, given the fragile mental composition of this team, is that a loss to Penn State on Tuesday could send them skidding out of control and out of the NCAA tournament picture completely.

As for the Nittany Lions - first, I guess we can stop calling the Illini's loss to them in January a bad loss, unless you think losing to a team that's ahead of you in the standings constitutes a bad loss. You read that right: Penn State (5-4) is now ahead of Illinois (4-4) in the Big Ten standings. Penn State has won 6 of the last 11 meetings between the teams, and with the Big Ten's second leading scorer (Illini-killer Talor Battle) on their side, they'll certainly enter Tuesday's game brimming with confidence - especially knowing that a sweep of a fellow mid-tier conference mate could go a long way toward putting themselves back into the NCAA tournament for the first time since the Nittany Lions roster was loaded with Crispin brothers.

Prediction: The 2010-11 Illini have made a habit of playing to the level of their competition, good or bad. Call me crazy, but I think this can work in the Illini's favor. Penn State has been playing well of late (four wins in their last six games, with the two losses being a three-point loss at Ohio State and a referee-screw-job special at Purdue), so if the pattern holds it's more likely that they'll bring out the best in the Illini on Tuesday. And unlike Ohio State, Penn State isn't good enough to win at the Assembly Hall if the Illini bring their "A" game. I'm thinking the Illini can win this one, but if they lose, look out below.

Final Score - Illini with more points than Penn State

Illini Face Crucial Stretch

The Illini basketball team is about to embark on a crucial three-game stretch, which you already knew since you read the headline of this blog post. Why is it so crucial? The Illini are ranked in the top 25 and sitting at 4-3 in the Big 10, which looks OK for now, but they still have road games against Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan State, and Ohio State on the docket. There's a good chance the Illini will lose all four of those games, which would leave the team with ten losses (and an 11-7 conference record) even if they won every other game. One more loss in any of the other games - and a team that's capable of losing to UIC, which is still winless in the Horizon League, is capable of losing to any Big 10 opponent - could leave the team needing to win at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament to avoid another bubblicious Selection Sunday.

My point is that if the Illini want to go into the Big Ten Tournament with an NCAA tournament bid locked up, it would behoove them to win the next three games against Indiana (away), Penn State (home), and Northwestern (away). Let's start with Indiana, which will be without Verdell Jones and Maurice Creek against the Illini on Thursday. The Illini are good at playing to the level of their competition. Sometimes that's helpful, sometimes it's not. But it will be tough for the Illini to play down to Indiana's level (10-10 overall, 1-6 in the Big Ten) if the Hoosiers are missing two starters. For the first time since Kendall Gill, Steven Bardo, and Ervin Small roamed the hardwood (1988-1990), the Illini will win a third straight game in the fake Assembly Hall.

Prediction: Illini 70, Hoosiers 60