The 2011 Fighting Illini are presenting quite a conundrum to our nation's college football experts. Some see a team with a soft schedule and a dynamic, dual-threat sophomore QB and expect the Illini to top last year's 7-6 record. Others see the loss of three key would-be-seniors to the NFL draft and expect the Illini to take a step backwards. The good news is that we won't have to wait much longer to see who's right, as the 2011 season will kick off on Saturday when the Illini face the Arkansas State Red Wolves at the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium. I'm excited, because I finally get a chance to write about a real game involving someone other than the craptacular 2011 Chicago Cubs.
When Illinois Has the Ball
As a freshman, QB Nathan Scheelhaase led an Illini offense that set a school record for points scored. But now Scheelhaase will have to make the offense hum without record-setting RB Mikel Leshoure (now property of the Detroit Lions) at his side. Fortunately, Scheelhaase has other options in the running game when he doesn't call his own number. Senior RB Jason Ford (who averaged a healthy 4.8 yards per carry last year) figures to get the bulk of the work, but fellow senior Troy Pollard, along with freshmen Donovonn Young and Josh Ferguson, also figure to get opportunities. Whoever is running the ball will have an experienced offensive line, led by senior T Jeff Allen and junior C Graham Pocic, to clear the way. If Scheelhaase wants to take to the air, he can rely on a crew of receivers led by A.J. Jenkins, who in a run-oriented offense still managed a 56 catch, 7 TD junior season in 2010. So what's the best way for our two-way threat to operate the offense? Well, Arkansas State's defense returns seven starters from last year, which sounds good, but those seven starters were part of a defense that allowed over 30 PPG last year, and only nine teams allowed more yards rushing per game than the Red Wolves did in 2010.
When Arkansas State Has the Ball
Using a spread offense under last year's offensive coordinator Hugh Freeze, Arkansas State scored over 30 PPG last year. Freeze will run the same system now that he is the Red Wolves' head coach, and he returns seven starters on offense. Most important among those is Junior QB Ryan Aplin. The Red Wolves' own dual-threat QB made First Team All-Sun Belt Conference in 2010 by piling up nearly 3,000 yards passing and almost 500 yards rushing. His top three receiving targets all return, led by Senior WR Dwayne Frampton, who came alive in his first season with the Red Wolves to the tune of 69 catches for 738 yards. The Illini's secondary, free from injuries that plagued them last year, looks to be the strongest unit on defense, so let's hope they're up to the task of trying to slow down the Red Wolves passing attack. One thing that might hamper Arkansas State's offense - the Red Wolves' offensive line features four new starters. Pressuring the QB was a strong point for last year's defense, which tied for second-best in the Big Ten with 23 sacks, but 12.5 of those sacks came from Corey Liuget, Martez Wilson, and Clay Nurse, all of whom are now ex-Illini. Even so, the Illini might be able to disrupt the passing game if someone (Whitney Mercilus? Michael Buchanan? Akeem Spence?) can get pressure on Aplin.
Prediction
Under Ron Zook, the Illini have had an unfortunate habit of playing down to their competition, which could be worrisome against a team that finished 4-8 in 2010. But Arkansas State's defensive weakness last year was stopping the run, and even without Leshoure, that's still the Illini's strong suit on offense. Look for the Illini to pound the ball on the ground early, which should eventually open up the passing game. Arkansas State may be able to put up some points, but unless they can force some early turnovers they won't have enough firepower to overcome what the Illini offense will do to their defense. For the first time since 2006, the Illini will start their season with a victory.
Illinois 45
Arkansas State 21
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