A Football-Free Weekend

No Illini game Saturday? No Bears game Sunday? There go all of my excuses to not mow the lawn. In any case, the red hot Illini (for whom two straight wins equals "red hot") have a bye week, which offers a great opportunity to assess the team's prospects for the rest of the season and for a bowl bid. Yes, I said a bowl bid. The Illini have two wins already, and looking at the schedule, I see three very winnable home games against Indiana, Purdue, and Minnesota (disclaimer - I understand that "winnable" doesn't equal "the Illini will win", as Zook-era teams have proven over and over).

But for argument's sake, let's give the Illini these three wins, which would make five and leave them needing one more win to become bowl-eligible. And yes, I've heard about the proposal to allow 5-win teams into bowl games this year, but I wouldn't count on that, and I don't like it anyway. Call me a traditionalist, but a team with more losses than wins shouldn't be in a bowl game. A team with an equal number of wins and losses - now that's a different story.

So with that backdrop, let's take a look at the remaining games on the schedule and see which (if any) would be a potential source of a sixth Illini win:

• Oct. 2 vs. Ohio State. Ummm...uhhh....Next!
• Oct. 9 at Penn State. Looking for trends with the Nittany Lions, I see that they've won every time they've hosted a non-Big Ten team from Ohio, but lost every time they've played on the road against teams ranked #1 in the country. Unfortunately, the Illini are probably closer in quality to the former group than the latter group, and this one's in Happy Valley.
• Oct. 16 at Michigan State. Sparty has looked good so far this year, what with their chicanery and all. But look at their Big 10 schedule: games against Wisconsin and at Michigan and games at Northwestern and against Iowa sandwiched around their home game against the Illini. Could this be a classic trap game for Sparty? A Zook-era team has gone to East Lansing with a freshman QB and left with a win before.
• Nov. 6 at Michigan. On the plus side, the Illini have beaten the maize-and-blue two straight times, and UMass did hang 37 points on the Wolverines in Ann Arbor. On the minus side, Michigan has a Heisman Trophy-caliber QB, and I think the universe would implode if Michigan lost three in a row to the Illini.
• Nov. 20 vs. Northwestern @ Wrigley Field. The Illini have lost 6 of their last 7 against the 'Cats, who are sort of the anti-Illini. Northwestern is well-coached and disciplined, with players who fit their system, which has continuity because they aren't constantly shuffling coordinators in and out every year. Northwestern is the designated home team for this one, so our best hope might be that Wrigley Field's other home team's bad luck rubs off on them.
• Dec. 3 at Fresno St. Wow - a game in California in December? We are going to a bowl game! Oh, wait, this is a road game on the regular season schedule - part of our Athletic Director's insane plan to ridiculously over-schedule a rebuilding program. Anyway, except for the ending, last year's game was a great one that could have gone either way. Maybe if the Illini have something to play for this year (a bowl bid), the rematch will go our way.

Well, there you have it. I don't see any obvious wins here, although some seem more winnable than others. If I had to rank them from best chance for a win to worst chance, I'd say Fresno St., Northwestern, Michigan St. Michigan, Penn St. and Ohio St. So while a sixth win is possible, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for it, especially because I don't think I can hold my breath until December. For now, I'll just enjoy knowing that after this Saturday, the Illini will have gone three straight weeks without a loss.

Pizza Pizza!

I don't know who Phil Steele is, or what kind of prediction algorithm he uses, but he projects that Ron Zook & Company are going bowling this year! Granted, it's the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl, but after appearing in only 3 bowl games in the last 15 years, any postseason game will do, even if it requires spending Boxing Day in Detroit. This would be a big deal for the Illini football program, because if you earn one bid to the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl, you get the second bid for free.

As for the Illini basketball team, actual good news may be in store. According to SI's Andy Glockner, the Illini were one of the unluckiest teams in the NCAAs last year and are one of his five teams that can expect a turnaround in that department. As he puts it:

The Illini pretty much return everyone from a team that was mildly unlucky last year, finishing about a game and a half worse than expected, which likely cost them an NCAA tournament bid....Still, if they can get a boost from former Illinois Mr. Basketball, Brandon Paul, who shot the ball terribly last year, the Illini should be a serious threat in the Big Ten.

Considering the Cubs' lousy record in one-run games, I think it's about time for one of my teams to have some good luck come their way. And if it's going to happen to one of my teams, I'd prefer it not to be a team that would just use it to get to mediocrity - I'd like it to be the one that could actually do something worthwhile with it.