The Bears' playoff chances after Sunday's date with the Tebow steamroller?
None of the above
The answer is "D", none of the above. The post title refers to this blog.
When I started writing, the Cubs were run by Jim Hendry, the Illini were run by Ron Guenther, the Bears were run by Jerry Angelo, and everything seemed hopeless, sports-wise, so I needed an outlet to vent my frustrations. But now, 17 months later, the Cubs have a competent front office, the Illini have an AD who demands accountability from his coaches, and the Bears...well, two out of three ain't bad, right? Anyway, I don't know how many people are actually reading these posts, and I'm just tired of writing, so I've decided that I'm not going to be updating the blog anymore.
And as my final post draws to a close, I'm reminded of a few of the events that brought me closer to you: Albert Pujols leaving St. Louis, back-to-back football wins over Northwestern, premium ice cream wars, dogs that were mistakenly issued major credit cards, and others that weren't so lucky.
And so, farewell. It's been a blast. And if you do like what I write but can only take it in doses of 140 characters or less, don't forget to look for my new column in PC World magazine that you can still follow me on Twitter.
When Mike Thomas said he was going to "assess" Ron Zook at the end of the season, "assess" was apparently a code word for "fire immediately", and "end of the season" meant "end of the regular season after a humiliating blowout loss to a horrible team, bowl game or not." Honestly, I feel bad for the Zooker right now. While his overall record at Illinois (34-51, 18-37 in conference play) was awful, he did walk into a terrible situation when he took over the Illini (three straight losing seasons before he arrived), and unlike the two guys who had the job before he did (and unlike certain basketball coaches), at least he did leave things in better shape than when he got here. But even though Zook seems like a good guy, he wasn't a very good coach, his faults were glaringly obvious, and the six-game regular-season-ending losing streak made it clear that he's not the right man to lead this program going forward.
The good news is that whoever the new permanent head coach is, with the talent on hand there's no way next year's Illini go 0-11 (as they did in Ron Turner's first year after taking over for Lou Tepper) or 2-9 (as they did in Zook's first year after taking over for Turner). It's also encouraging to see that Thomas won't tolerate mediocrity; back-to-back six-win regular seasons probably would have earned Zook a five-year contract extension if Ron Guenther were still the AD. As a side note, I'm guessing this also means Bruce Weber's seat just got a little bit hotter, and that Weber will need to do better than spending every year on the NCAA Tournament bubble if he wants to stick around. So now the fun begins. In hiring Zook's replacement, Mike Thomas gets to make his first big impact on Illini athletics.
Congratulations, Ron Zook - after a fantastic start to the 2011 season, your team's five game losing streak has completely crushed my spirit. Of course, I will be rooting for the Illini to beat the Golden Gophers on Saturday, but for me this game will have the same feel as the Illini basketball team's NIT game against Stony Brook in 2010. If we win, I probably won't be excited as much as relieved that we didn't suffer a humiliating loss.
Fortunately, even though the Illini went from Columbus Day to Thanksgiving without winning a game, we still have a better team than Minnesota. If the Illini defense could hold Wisconsin's powerful offense in check, they should be able to stop the Golden Gophers' offense. I think we'll get just enough production from our offense and for a change we won't shoot ourselves in the foot on special teams. It will add up to a win and a little momentum going into whatever crappy bowl game we get invited to. Yippee. But more importantly, it means that the regular season will be over, so we'll be that much closer to getting an answer from Mike Thomas on whether he wants Zook to be a part of the future of the football program. And that answer should be something to get excited about.
Predictions
Illinois 24
Minnesota 10
Ron Zook will be fired after the game and will not coach our bowl game
Or was it Luke McCown? It couldn't have been Cade McNown, could it? No, it actually was Josh McCown. Too bad it wasn't Neckbeard the Pirate, but apparently the Chiefs got to him first. Oh, well - I guess that just means (1) we'll have to settle for Josh McCown as Caleb Hanie's backup until Jay Cutler gets back into the lineup, and (2) we'll get to see Kyle Orton soon enough, when the Chiefs visit Chicago a week from Sunday. OK, Josh - here's hoping you're ready to stand on the sidelines holding a clipboard.
"I've learned that life is one crushing defeat after another, until you just wish Flanders was dead." - Homer Simpson
I certainly don't feel that way about life in general (and not just because, like hens love roosters and geese love ganders, I love Ned Flanders more than Homer Simpson loves a nacho hat). But the first part of that sentence does a pretty good job of summarizing how I've felt watching my football teams this fall. After a 6-0 start, the Illini may need to win their last game of the regular season at Minnesota to avoid being shut out of a bowl game. The Bears had been doing a good job of covering up the stench emanating from Champaign by posting a five-game winning streak - and major props to you if you guessed that the Bears, who were sitting at 2-3 at the same time the Illini were 6-0, would reach seven wins before the Illini did. However, as you've undoubtedly heard, the Bears suffered a crushing injury on Sunday, losing long snapper Patrick Mannelly to a torn ACL. Oh - and there was also something about Jay Cutler breaking his thumb during the win over the Chargers.
In all honesty, I wasn't exactly thrilled when I first heard the news that the Cubs were planning to hire Dale Sveum as their new manager. This is the first big decision by the Cubs' new front office team. So why were they (and the Red Sox, for that matter) so eager to pursue a guy who had twice been passed over for the managerial opening in Milwaukee - once when he was the Brewers' interim manager and had just guided the franchise to its first postseason appearance in 26 years? Then I read about how Sveum "is a believer in the advanced statistical analysis that Chicago's new leadership loves and is counting on to build up the farm system." Money quote:
''I do my due diligence and video work and prepare as much as anybody,'' Sveum said before he was hired. ''As far as the stats, those are what they are, and we can use them to our advantage. It's a big part of the game now. It's helping us win a lot of ballgames, the stats and the matchups. That's just part of the game now, and you use what you can.''
Taking advantage of stats and matchups...so no more equating drawing walks with "clogging the bases"? No more batting a low OBP guy in the leadoff spot because that's where he's "comfortable"? No more putting a thoroughly average hitter (career OPS+ of 100) in the middle of the order every day? Wow - if this is true, I can sum up my thoughts on this hire in two words (no, not those two words):
One of the most painful outcomes for Illinois football in recent years came in the 2009 season finale against Fresno State. Nearly two years later, it's still difficult to believe that our Senior Day was ruined on a last-second, tipped-pass-for-a-two-point-conversion reception by a Bulldogs offensive lineman. That loss capped off a 3-9 season for the Illini (Ron Zook's second straight losing season), and it seemed all but certain that we would never see Zook on the Illinois sideline at Memorial Stadium again. But thanks to the generosity, insanity, and/or stupidity of then-AD Ron Guenther, Zook survived, and we've now seen him coach an additional 13 games at Memorial Stadium. This Saturday's clash against #15/#17 Wisconsin will be his 14th since that Fresno State game. But unless the Illini can score a victory over the Badgers, it's difficult to believe that current AD Mike Thomas will give Zook the opportunity to extend that number, no matter what Thomas is saying now. By the way, I've heard that ESPN was planning to bring the blimp to Champaign for Saturday's broadcast, but in a cost-cutting move they've instead decided to get their aerial shots of the game by strapping cameras to the vultures circling over Zook's head.
Given that atmosphere, is there any hope for the Fighting Zookers on Saturday?
When the Bears signed Todd Collins last year, I went out of my way to praise the move. My reward for standing up for Collins? In a start against Carolina (the worst team in the NFL in 2010), Collins produced one of the most inept performances by a Bears QB that I've ever seen (and that includes performances by Rusty Lisch, Rick Mirer, and Henry Burris).
So what does Todd Collins have to do with Ron Zook? Well, during the Illini's bye week, I did my best to defend Ron Zook's record as Illinois head coach, and asked my fellow Illini fans to be patient despite our team's three-game skid. My reward? With two weeks to prepare for Michigan, we got another completely listless offensive performance, more crappiness from our "special" teams, and the Wolverines kicking the snot out of the Illini in Champaign last Saturday in a game that wasn't as close as the 31-14 final score indicated, extending the losing streak to four games. Making matters worse, there were two separate off-field incidents involving Illini players over the weekend, so while we're slipping in the Big Ten standings, we're moving up in the Fulmer Cup standings. And the topper - during the last two weeks, both Northwestern and Purdue scored big upset victories (over Nebraska and Ohio State, respectively). With those results, it's almost certain that ten of the Big Ten's twelve schools will be bowl-eligible by season's end, meaning that if the Illini do end the season 6-6, there may not be a bowl bid for them as I thought two weeks ago.
The promise and progress the Illini showed early this season has completely disintegrated, and unless the team can bounce back and post an upset win against Wisconsin (unlikely, given the state of our offense and the top-ten-in-the-nation scoring defense of the Badgers), I'm guessing that not even a win at Minnesota in the season finale will be enough to convince Mike Thomas to keep Zook around for 2012. So thanks, Ron Zook, for taking what was shaping up to be a fantastic year and dragging it into the gutter, and for making me look really bad. Go find another blogger to stand up for you - I'm done.
It seems like it's been forever since the Illini basketball team played in a game that counted, but on Friday, the Illini will open their season against Loyola, and I'm looking forward to having meaningful basketball games to talk about again. That certainly beats going over what's happened to our basketball team during the last five seasons. I've already made my feelings on Bruce Weber known, and I don't want to spend too much time re-hashing that discussion, because I'm tired of it. I'm tired of not feeling invincible on our home court. I'm tired of being a bubble team, needing to win games in the Big Ten Tournament just to make the NCAA tournament. But most of all, I'm tired of our team being completely out of the picture when it comes not only to national championships, but also to Big Ten championships. So probably the best news about the new season is that one way or the other, by March we should have our answer on the "fire Bruce Weber" question.
OK, now that I'm done talking about the past, it's time to look at the present.
It's odd how things work out sometimes. Four weeks ago, the Illini were undefeated, and it looked to me as if the Bears were on the fast track to mediocrity after a Monday night loss to Detroit dropped them to 2-3. But since then, the Illini have lost three straight games, crushing any hope of New Year's Day football, while the Bears have a two-game winning streak and renewed playoff hopes. When the Illini were up the Bears were down. Now, the Bears are up, and the Illini are down. You know who I am? Even Steven!
With the Bears are coming out of the bye week at 4-3 (the same record they had at the bye week in 2010), the next two games will most likely determine which way the 2011 season breaks. A win over the Eagles on Monday night would give the Bears the tiebreaker edge over three of their potential competitors (Eagles, Falcons, Bucs) for wild card spots. While a loss at Philadelphia wouldn't be fatal to a Bears' playoff run, the next game, at home against the Lions (another potential wild card competitor), is the real key to the team's postseason chances. If the Bears are swept by Detroit there's no way the Bears will catch the Lions, and the Bears would have no way to make the playoffs other than as the NFC's #6 seed. But a Bears victory would go a long way toward helping them finish ahead of the Lions, especially since Detroit still has to play Green Bay twice.
With the almost-second half of the schedule about to get underway (it would be much cleaner if the bye week fell at the exact midpoint of the season, but what can you do about that?), I figure this is a good time to try to guess if the Bears will return to the postseason. I originally had the Bears finishing at 8-8, but there's been a slight change in my forecast. I'm assuming the Bears will follow last year's formula, in which after the bye week, Mike Martz "chose" to go with more conservative, run-oriented game plans instead of the pass-happy, let's-get-Jay-Cutler-killed game plans he prefers. Based on that assumption, here's how I see things unfolding the rest of the way, game by game:
Three weeks ago, the Illini were sitting at 6-0 - the best start for the team in sixty years - and it looked like we were on our way to a history-making football season. And we still might be seeing history in the making, but it wouldn't be the kind we were hoping for. I did a little bit of research on the eight seasons in which FBS teams have been allowed to play 12 regular season games, and it looks as if no college football team has ever had both a six-game winning streak and a six-game losing streak in the same season. But after last Saturday's heartbreaking, last-minute loss to Penn State left the Illini with a three-game losing streak, the Illini need to win one of their remaining three games - at home against #13 Michigan or #20 Wisconsin, or on the road against Minnesota (which beat Iowa in Minneapolis last Saturday) - to avoid becoming first team to claim that dubious distinction.
As a result of the losing streak, the "Fire Ron Zook" bandwagon is gaining momentum as the Illini head into their bye week. If the Illini do finish the regular season with a 6-6 (or 7-5) record and a berth in, say, the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl after their great start, it would certainly give Mike Thomas a reason to fire Zook at season's end. But should Thomas be thinking about changing coaches? My answer - no, he shouldn't. That's right, I'm about to try to defend Ron Zook.
In my little corner of the blogosphere, 2011 has been quite a painful year when it comes to on-field results. The Packers beat the Bears in the NFC Championship Game and then won the Super Bowl. The Illini were knocked out of the NCAA Tournament by Bill Self's Kansas Jayhawks (who at least had the courtesy to not win the championship). And the Cubs helped the Cardinals sneak into the playoffs on the last day of the season just so I could have the pleasure of watching Ryan Theriot and Corey Patterson get World Series rings.
But off the field - wow, things couldn't be much better. No more Ron Guenther running the Illini revenue sports into the ground. No more Jim Hendry running the Cubs front office as if it were still 1977. And now, the news that Mike Quade will not return to the Cubs dugout in 2012. In truth, Quade was put into a no-win situation last year (much of which was Hendry's fault), and the 2011 Cubs wouldn't have been any good even with the ghost of Joe McCarthy managing them. But there's no doubt that Quade was in way over his head as a major league manager, and it's nice to see Jedstein not letting this decision linger. Instead, they've put on their hazmat suits and are getting a quick start at cleaning up the toxic mess they inherited. The hunt is on for a new manager who will:
"place an emphasis on preparation and accountability" (i.e. - goodbye, Carlos Zambrano! No more standing at home plate watching long fly balls, Alfonso Soriano!)
"establish high standards and a winning culture" (i.e. - it will be someone from outside the Cubs organization)
"have integrity and an open mind" (i.e.- knowledge of Sabermetrics, or a willingness to learn and implement Sabermetrics, encouraged)
"and he must have managerial or coaching experience at the major league level." (at least they were classy enough to personally contact Ryne Sandberg to let him know he wasn't a candidate).
I have no idea whom they'll come up with to replace Quade (Terry Francona? Bobby Valentine? Bob Brenly?), but since everything else the new front office team has done so far has been done in a completely professional manner, I'm sure the same will apply to the process for finding a new manager. It's exciting to see all of the positive changes happening at 1060 West Addison. Now if only we could see some similar shake-ups at 1000 Football Drive in Lake Forest, my year would be complete.
In the "Lisa the Iconoclast" episode of the Simpsons, Lisa sets out to prove that Jebediah Springfield, the beloved founder of the town of Springfield, was actually a brutal pirate named Hans Sprungfeld. Upon hearing Lisa's theory, Homer states that he believes Lisa, telling her "[y]ou're always right about this sort of thing, and for once I want in on the ground floor."
So what does this have to do with the the St. Louis Cardinals? Well, during this past season, I scoffed at several of the Cardinals' player personnel moves. You guys think Lance Berkman can hold up as an everyday right fielder? You think Ryan Theriot is an everyday shortstop? Edwin Jackson has been traded three times in less than three years, but you can figure out what's wrong with him? It seemed to me as if the top decision-makers in the Cardinals' front office had crayons lodged in their brains. But of course, like Lisa, the Cardinals ended up being right about everything they did, and to my dismay they won the 2011 World Series.
Now, I like to think that I know a little bit about baseball, so I've decided to adopt a new strategy this off-season. Whatever the Cardinals do, and no matter how ridiculous it seems, I'll go on record as saying it's a brilliant move. For example, if I heard that Rodrigo Lopez joined the Cardinals starting rotation in 2012, I'd predict 17 wins and a sub-3.00 ERA. If Albert Pujols were to leave via free agency and the Cardinals made Bryan LaHair their starting first baseman next year, I'd guarantee LaHair would hit 35 home runs. If the Cardinals were to decide that Mike Quade should be the one to replace Tony LaRussa as manager, I'd still expect nothing less than a second consecutive championship. In other words, for once I want in on the ground floor.
To be clear - I'm not saying that I'm going to abandon the Cubs and become a Cardinals fan. But it's worth acknowledging that Aristotle's quote "no great genius has ever existed without some touch of madness" is right on the mark when it comes the maneuverings of our I-55 rivals. And it's also worth recognizing another baseball truism. As Jebediah Springfield himself might have said (had he known about baseball): "[a] noble redbird on the jersey embiggens the statistics of the crummiest ballplayer."
In the middle of the 1995 Big Ten season, the Illini suffered back-to-back disheartening home losses: first to Michigan State (a 27-21 loss); and then to Northwestern (17-14). The next game on the schedule was a road trip to Iowa City. I expected to see a blowout, and that's exactly what happened. Only the Illini weren't the victims, they were the perpetrators - the good guys routed the Hawkeyes 26-7. I know everyone's upset about the current state of the Illini football team (rightfully so), and in the wake of the current two-game losing streak Ron Zook's name is starting to appear on "hot seat" lists again. But if a Lou Tepper-coached team could stop a two-game losing streak as a big underdog in a hostile environment, is it out of the question for a Zook-coached team to do the same thing when the Illini (6-2, 4-4) travel to Happy Valley on Saturday to face Penn State (7-1, 4-0)?
The press conference introducing Theo Epstein as President of Baseball Operations for the Chicago Cubs was held this morning at 11:00, which means that the nearly two-week-long wait for Epstein to actually begin working for the Cubs is finally over. What a fortnight it's been - I don't think I've seen this level of national media hyperventilation about an off-field sports event since the second Brett Favre unretirement announcement. And it's not just the mainstream media: throw in the blogosphere and the Twitter-verse, and I think the only subject that's consumed more Internet bandwidth than speculation about Epstein these past two weeks is pornography.
In any event, with the media circus behind us, it's good to know that Epstein will now be able to begin re-building the completely decimated Cubs franchise, because there's a lot to do (replace the manager, find better players, dump the bad contracts, figure out whom he's going to trade to the Red Sox for himself, teach the front office holdovers what "on-base percentage" is, etc.) Thanks again to the Ricketts family for going all-in on this one and giving Cubs fans a reason to believe that good things are coming our way. Now quit your lollygagging and get to work, Epstein!
Questions raised during and immediately after the Illini's 21-14 loss to Purdue:
Did the team not know this was an 11:00 (CDT) start?
What happened to that punt return "breakthrough" Ron Zook talked about this week? Did we have a single positive yardage punt return play in the game?
We were down 21 points in the first half, so why did we wait until the end of the fourth quarter to run anything resembling a hurry-up offense?
Spiking the ball with one second left in the first half - really?
Of course, we shouldn't be surprised that our team doesn't understand time management when our coach doesn't know how to manage the clock either, should we?
How long will it be before we return to the top 25? And will Zook still be the coach when it happens?
If we just got pantsed by a team that couldn't beat Rice and barely beat Middle Tennessee, is there any way for us to beat Penn State, Michigan, or Wisconsin...or Minnesota?
I guess we all knew it was going to end sometime. And since the Illini aren't going to finish the season undefeated, now we'll find out whether last Saturday's loss to Ohio State was just a bump in the road, or...whatever the opposite of a bump in the road is...the beginning of a giant sinkhole, I guess. This week, the Illini leave home for just the second time in 2011 as they make the short trip to West Lafayette to face the Purdue Boilermakers (3-3, 1-2). And for the third straight week, the winner takes home a trophy. At stake this week - the Purdue Cannon (not pictured, left, but I'd love to win a trophy that looked like that). Last year, the Illini claimed the Cannon for the first time since 2002 with a 44-10 victory, but that was an injury-riddled Purdue team we knocked around in Champaign. Will a healthy bunch of Boilermakers be able to turn the tables on the Illini this year?
Congratulations to my wife's grandmother, who turned 100 years old on Friday. To celebrate, we drove up to Wisconsin on Saturday and spent the day with her, which left me unable to watch the Illini's 17-7 loss to Ohio State. If anyone could figure out a way to lose a game in which the opponent completed only one pass in the entire game...well, it would have to be a team I root for, wouldn't it? The Illini lost because the Buckeyes converted two turnovers into touchdowns, but the game wasn't sealed until a classic Ron Zook blunder in the final minutes. With just over a minute left, the Illini had the ball and two time outs left, but faced 4th and 2 at the Ohio State 17 yard line. But instead of kicking the field goal, the Illini went for the first down and failed, after which the Buckeyes ran out the clock. Since you needed to score twice to win, why not kick the field goal there and leave as much time as possible to get the touchdown if you can recover the onside kick? In the same situation last year, Northern Illinois took the field goal and then tried the onside kick (which the Illini recovered) even though the Huskies faced a longer kick than Derek Dimke would have attempted on Saturday, but I guess Ron Zook wasn't paying attention that day. I only mention it because Lovie Smith made the exact same blunder at the end of last Monday's game against the Lions, and it would be nice if one of the football teams I root for had a coach who understood clock management.
Since I was on the road on Saturday night driving back to Chicago, I also missed Game 6 of the ALCS. Apparently, so did the Detroit Tigers - they lost to the Texas Rangers 15-5, allowing the Rangers to repeat as American League champions. And to be honest, I'm a little pissed at the Tigers right now, because they were the last team that could have prevented a nightmare World Series scenario. With the Tigers out of the picture, this year's World Series winner will either be a hated rival, or a former loser franchise from Texas getting their first championship before I see the Cubs get one. Now, where have I seen that before? Oh, right.
But thanks to the Bears' performance on Sunday night, my sports weekend wasn't a complete disaster. After Monday night's miserable performance, a home game against the hapless Minnesota Vikings (a/k/a "The Houston Astros of the NFC North") was just what the Bears needed. Too bad the Bears can't play the Vikings every week - the 39-10 win brought the Bears back to .500, and now I realize I may have been a little harsh in my assessment of the rest of the Bears season last week. Other than the game at Green Bay, and maybe the game at Philadelphia, there's not a game on the remainder of the schedule that looks like a sure loss. And with the Lions finally looking mortal Sunday, and with several other NFC contenders (Atlanta, Philadelphia) looking less than imposing so far this year, maybe the playoffs aren't such a reach for the Bears. Of course, if the Bears couldn't get past the Packers to reach the Super Bowl last year, it's not like they have a shot to do it this year. But I'm looking at it this way: Lovie Smith's contract runs through 2013, so no matter how bad the Bears get this year, we're stuck with him through at least 2012, because there's no way in hell the McCaskeys fire a coach with two years remaining on his contract, right? So since there's no reason to hope the Bears lose this year so they get rid of Smith faster (because that won't happen), we might as well hope for the best, and even a one-and-done #6 seed appearance in the playoffs would be worth it. And don't worry, Smith-haters - with most of the Bears' star players on the wrong side of 30, and without enough quality young players in the pipeline to replace them, the end will come soon enough.
*Actually, I'm not sure if it's patented, but I'm pretty sure he at least has the application on file at the U.S. Patent & Trademark Office.
Now, imagine all three of those things happening in the first half of the same game - no way the Illini win, right? But this year's version of the Illini was able to overcome all of those mistakes and coast to an easy 41-20 win over Indiana last week. Granted, the Hoosiers are terrible, but there have been plenty of occasions during the past few seasons where mistakes have cost the Illini wins over terrible teams. No, I think what we're seeing here is a genuinely good Illinois football team. With six wins, the Illini are already bowl-eligible, and it's just the fifth time in the last 16 years that the Illini can say that they'll be playing an extra game at the end of the season. If the Illini can beat Ohio State (3-3, 0-2) on Saturday in Champaign, it would mark just the seventh time in the last 25 years that the Illini have managed a seven-win season. But that would mean beating the Buckeyes at home - a feat the Illini haven't accomplished in twenty years. Can the Illini pull it off and capture the Illibuck trophy for the first time since 2007?
The Jewish fall harvest holiday Sukkot began on Wednesday night, and to celebrate, it looks as if the Cubs have harvested themselves a GM who assembled a team that won two World Series in a four-year span. According to reports, Theo Epstein has agreed to a five-year deal to leave the Red Sox and take charge of the Cubs.
When Jim Hendry was fired, I said that hiring his replacement would be one of the most important decisions in franchise history, and I'll give credit to the Ricketts family - they knocked this one out onto Waveland Avenue. It's not just that Epstein broke the "Curse of the Bambino" in leading the Red Sox to glory, it's the way he accomplished it:
After Monday night's 24-13 loss to the Detroit Lions, the Bears are sitting at 2-3, in a division with two 5-0 teams, each of whom have beaten the Bears once. So it's Columbus Day, and the Bears' only chance to make the playoffs will be as the #6 seed in the NFC. But it's more likely that we'll see a slow, painful descent into mediocrity the rest of the way. And given that the Packers look like they may not lose a game all year, I think I have an answer to the question I posed a couple of months ago: where's that NFL lockout when you need it?
OK, so commenting on a Cardinals-Phillies playoff game isn't technically within the jurisdiction of my blog. Of course, since this is a Cubs blog, commenting on any playoff game isn't going to fall within my jurisdiction. But with the Cardinals advancing to the NLCS by virtue of Friday night's 1-0 win over the Phillies, I wanted to make sure to call your attention to a prediction I made in a Bleed Cubbie Blue Game Thread last week:
Just watch - The Packers sneaked into the playoffs on the last day of the season and went on to win the Super Bowl. Now the Cardinals are going to sneak into the playoffs on the last day of the season and win the World Series.
Thank you, Cardinals. You're going to make me look like a supergenius! And thanks, Phillies and Diamondbacks, for leaving me with a Brewers vs. Cardinals NLCS!
Take away the names on the jerseys. If you told most college football fans that a 5-0, top-20 team had a game on Saturday against a team that had lost all four of its games against FBS competition so far this year (including losses to juggernauts Ball State and North Texas), how many would pick against the 5-0 team? Right - no one would; everyone would pick them to win big. But when that 5-0 team is #16 (or #19) ranked Illinois, a team that has left its supporters feeling disappointed so many times over the years, it's somewhat understandable why some people (including people who write for this blog) might feel a little nervous about the Illini's prospects against Indiana on Saturday. While Illini football fans have grown accustomed to nebulous feelings of impending doom, there are actual reasons to feel nervous:
The trip to the fake Memorial Stadium in Bloomington will mark the first time the Illini have traveled away from Champaign this season, so we don't know how the Illini will react when faced with a "hostile" crowd (hostile being a relative term in this case, since a lot of Indiana fans probably aren't even aware that they have a football team).
It's true that the Hoosiers are 1-4 so far this year (the win came against South Carolina State, an FCS school with a losing record). However, their four losses have been by a combined 19 points. On the other hand, the Illini have won their last three games by a total of nine points. In other words, the Hoosiers might not be as bad as their record indicates, and the Illini might not be as good as their record indicates.
While most of his predecessors have been rather anonymous, first-year Hoosiers Head Coach Kevin Wilson hasn't taken long to show that he's a jackass, but he's a jackass who might have extra motivation to stick it to the Illini.
So is there legitimate cause for concern regarding Saturday's game? If the Hoosiers are to spring the upset on Saturday, here are some areas where they might make it happen:
My wife is a Northwestern alum, so I'll have to watch what I say in this post and not put the Wildcats down too much. If I'm not careful, I might end up sleeping in the garage. Just kidding - my wife would never do that to me. The garage has a roof - she'd make me sleep in the driveway.
But seriously, enough about me - how about those Illini! You might say three is the magic number, as for the third week in a row, the Illini pulled out a three-point victory. On Saturday, two dramatic comebacks in the second half helped the Illini beat Northwestern 38-35. Nathan Scheelhaase led the Orange and Blue on a last-minute, 70 yard touchdown drive which allowed the Land of Lincoln Trophy (left) to stay in Champaign with Chicago's Real Big Ten team. More importantly, the Illini are off to their first 5-0 start since...actually, it's just as long as it's been since their last 4-0 start (i.e. - since 1951). Here's a look at some key numbers from Saturday's game.
When Illinois and Northwestern renew their rivalry for the 104th time on Saturday, a lot of things will be different compared to their last meeting. For starters, this will be the first time since 1998 that the game doesn't fall on the final week of the Big Ten schedule, and with its 11:00 a.m. kickoff, this will be the first ever interdivisional Big Ten game under the new Legends/Leaders format. As for the game itself, unlike at last year's matchup at Wrigley Field, the teams will be able to run plays in both directions. But perhaps the biggest difference is that Northwestern will have its quasi-Heisman Trophy candidate, Dan Persa, starting at quarterback on Saturday. Will the Illini be able to repeat last year's 48-27 pounding of the Wildcats? Or will the mere sight of Persa descending from the heavens in his golden chariot inspire the 'cats to a payback win?
The NFL's longest-standing rivalry resumes this weekend, as the Bears prepare to host the Packers on Sunday. Of course, the stakes will be a lot lower than they were the last time these two teams met at Soldier Field, and even a Bears win on Sunday wouldn't erase or make up for what happened last January (just like Illinois beating North Carolina in a 2005-06 regular season game didn't make up for what happened when the two teams met in the 2005 NCAA Championship Game). But we can't change the past (yet - although I do have one of my best men working on it as we speak), so we'll have to hope for a better future - one that includes the Bears and Packers tied at 2-1 in the standings. Can the Bears make that happen? There are some encouraging signs:
The Illini are coming off of their biggest non-conference home win since...when? Louisville in 2001? Eventual National Champion Colorado in 1990? Whatever benchmark you choose to compare it to, last Saturday's electrifying 17-14 win over Arizona State propelled the Illini into the top 25 for the first time since 2008. Now, I don't want to be too much of a Debbie Downer here. But while Illini fans are excited (and rightfully so) about the results of the Arizona State game itself, it doesn't mean that we should start talking about this as a "special season" just yet. The offense disappeared for a large chunk of the game, and had it not been for a heroic effort by the defense (including a couple of fortuitous bounces that became turnovers) and a missed 32-yard Arizona State field goal, we might be hearing a different narrative this week. But fate did smile on the Illini, who are 3-0 for the first time since 2001, and are looking to go to 4-0 for the first time since 1951 this Saturday against Western Michigan. To put that in perspective, the last time the Illini had a 4-0 start, the Cubs were only six years removed from their last World Series game.
So now that the Illini have overcome one bugaboo (the inability to win a closely played big game on a national stage), they'll have to overcome another one against the Broncos on Saturday: the let-down game. During the Ron Zook era, the Illini have displayed a particularly aggravating habit of following a big, emotionally charged win with a flat performance against a lesser opponent: after ruining Michigan State's Homecoming in 2006, the Illini blew a late lead to lose their own Homecoming game against Indiana; in 2007, the Illini followed back-to-back home wins over Penn State and Wisconsin by laying an egg in Iowa City; and after an exhilarating last second win over Iowa in 2008, the Illini lost their next game at Ford Field against...ahem...Western Michigan. Oh, and one more thing - this week's game is sandwiched in between a game against a ranked team and a game against Big Ten rival Northwestern, so it also has the makings of a dreaded "trap game".
Where does that leave us against this year's incarnation of Western Michigan? The Broncos enter this game with a 2-1 record, with big wins over relatively similar competition (Central Michigan) and inferior competition (Nicholls), as well as a 34-10 road loss against Michigan, a team in the same league (literally and figuratively) as the Illini. A look at the box score from that game at the Big House can give us a good idea of what to expect on Saturday. In a game shortened by severe weather, the underlying numbers looked pretty even - 288 total yards for Michigan, 279 for Western Michigan. However, while the Broncos were able to move the ball up and down the field, they committed three costly turnovers - two fumbles and one interception - and Michigan tallied two defensive touchdowns in the game. That could be bad news for the Broncos, as the Illini defense has already forced eight turnovers this season, including three against Arizona State. Also of note - in three quarters, Western Michigan allowed 190 yards on the ground against the Wolverines (on only 26 carries, for over seven yards per rushing play). That could also bode well for the Illini's run-oriented offense.
Prediction
To make my call on this potential trap game, let's turn to the ultimate authority. What do you think, Admiral Ackbar - is this a trap?
Both the Illini and the Bears dominated their opposition last weekend, but both teams will face tougher tests this weekend: the Illini will be hosting a top-25 team (Arizona State), while the Bears journey to the Superdome, where the Saints of football play. Rather than write out separate previews (and predictions), I'm just going to combine previews for both games into one huge honkin' post.
For the second consecutive year, the Fighting Illini host a Missouri Valley Conference school in their second non-conference game. Last year, it was Southern Illinois; this year, it's South Dakota State. But unlike last year, this year's schedule featured a winnable opening game, so a win on Saturday would move the Illini to 2-0, which would be their first 2-0 start since 2005.
I usually like to take a look at each team's statistics in my pregame write-ups as a way to learn about the opponent and to figure out how the match-ups will play out. But, please - we're talking about South Dakota State here. They're an FCS team (and not a particularly good FCS team at that). So here's what I've got for you instead:
South Dakota State's team nickname is the "Jackrabbits", and their cleverly-named mascot is Jack Rabbit.
South Dakota State actually has an alum in the Pro Football Hall of Fame - Jim Langer, who played center for the Miami Dolphins' Super Bowl teams during the 1970s. Colts' kicker Adam Vinatieri also played his college football for the Jackrabbits.
In 2010, the Jackrabbits finished with the exact same overall record (5-6) and conference record (4-4) as Southern Illinois did. You know, the same Southern Illinois team the Illini beat 35-3 last year.
The Jackrabbits nearly blew a 22-point 4th quarter lead against mighty Southern Utah in their home opener last week. They managed to hold on for a 29-28 win by breaking up a two-point conversion play with two seconds left in the game.
Prediction
Under Ron Zook, the Illini are 5-0 against FCS teams, and all of those wins have been by at least 21 points. Unless the two teams decide to not play an actual football game on Saturday, and instead go with an "alumni who currently play in the AFC South" field goal kicking contest between Vinatieri and Neil Rackers, this will be easy.
One of the best parts of being a sports fan is the way the seasons overlap, so that just as the baseball season winds down, football gets going, and when football ends, basketball takes over and leads right into spring, when baseball begins again. It's a beautiful "Circle of Life" kind of thing. True, it didn't work out so well for me this year, seeing as how the Cubs haven't played a meaningful game since, what, Mother's Day? But that's not important right now. What is important is that the NFL season kicks off on Thursday night.
In an attempt to predict the 2011 NFL season, I created an elaborate computer simulation that played out every game on the regular season schedule, as well as the postseason. Unfortunately, since I have no idea how to write a computer program, I ended up with a Cincinnati vs. Carolina Super Bowl matchup. So I decided to junk that whole set of predictions and just wing it instead. And without further ado, here are my forecasted 2011 records for every team - and I'm giving out playoff prognostications too, at no extra charge! Bears fans, I hope you're sitting down for this.
After a protracted illness lasting the entire 2011 season, the Cubs were mathematically eliminated from postseason play on Tuesday night. Elimination occurred at home, where the Cubs were surrounded by a few thousand of their closest friends. The Cubs were preceded in elimination by the Houston Astros, and are survived by every other team in the National League. In lieu of flowers, donations may be sent to the Please Hire a General Manager Who Knows How to Build a Productive Farm System Fund.
The 2011 Fighting Illini are presenting quite a conundrum to our nation's college football experts. Some see a team with a soft schedule and a dynamic, dual-threat sophomore QB and expect the Illini to top last year's 7-6 record. Others see the loss of three key would-be-seniors to the NFL draft and expect the Illini to take a step backwards. The good news is that we won't have to wait much longer to see who's right, as the 2011 season will kick off on Saturday when the Illini face the Arkansas State Red Wolves at the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium. I'm excited, because I finally get a chance to write about a real game involving someone other than the craptacular 2011 Chicago Cubs.
You probably already know that Jim Hendry was fired by the Chicago Cubs on Friday. Actually, that's not true - he was really fired almost a month ago, but in a baffling move he was allowed to stay on as GM through the July 31 trade deadline (when the Cubs twiddled their thumbs and did nothing). Which means that, technically, the Cubs allowed an ex-employee to make crucial decisions (or non-decisions) affecting the team's future. It figures that even when the Cubs do something right, they still do it wrong.
Looking back on Hendry's nearly ten-year tenure running the Cubs, one could make the argument that he's the most successful GM the team has ever had (granted, there's not much competition). After all, the Cubs won three division titles under his watch, and made back-to-back postseason appearances (in 2007 and 2008) for the first time since Tinker, Evers, and Chance (and Steinfeldt) patrolled the infield at West Side Grounds in the early 20th Century. But there was always a feeling that, given the Cubs decided financial advantage as the only major-market team in the NL Central, they could have done even better. For one thing, their three division titles included an 88-win season (2003) and an 85-win season (2007); both times, the Cubs didn't field dominant teams, but instead they barely were able to prevail over weak competitors to finish first. And Hendry's three division winners were counterbalanced by the last-place, 96-loss clunker of 2006 and the last two lackluster seasons, which left the Cubs' overall record during his time as GM at 749-748 - which is about as mediocre as you can get.
Wow, what a great year this is turning out to be! First, Ron Guenther retired. Now comes the news that the Cubs have fired GM Jim Hendry. Since I wasn't expecting this to happen until after the season ended (if ever), it will take a little time for me to put together a longer retrospective on Hendry's tenure as GM. But for now, it's good to know that three of my four favorite teams are giving me hope for something different (accountability and sustained success) going forward. And since these things usually happen in threes, if I were Jerry Angelo (and if Angelo were aware of my blog), I'd be getting really nervous.
Running back Bud Golden and kicker/punter Matt Eller have apparently decided to leave the Illini football team, both for the same reason - being buried on the depth chart. Not much of a story here, but it's a chance to say best wishes to both players, as well as a good excuse to give special thanks to Eller for this moment:
Getting into a dugout (and locker room) fight with his catcher (Michael Barrett) didn't do it. Engaging in a dugout shouting match with the mild-mannered Derrek Lee didn't do it either. But cleaning out his locker and walking out of Turner Field in the middle of Friday's game - that may be the act that finally marks the end of Carlos Zambrano's tenure in the Chicago Cubs organization. The Cubs have placed Zambrano on the disqualified list, essentially banning him (without pay) from the team for 30 days. Judging by the reactions of his teammates, they won't miss him, even if it means more starts for the likes of Casey Coleman or Ramon Ortiz in Zambrano's absence.
If this is indeed the end for Big Z's time in Chicago, it's a sad reminder of another once-popular Cubs player who walked out of the clubhouse in the middle of a game - Sammy Sosa, who also never played with the Cubs again after committing his transgression. And as with another hot-headed Cub of recent vintage - Milton Bradley - Jim Hendry (or his successor) will undoubtedly be forced to purge Zambrano from the roster one way or another. It's not like finding a taker for a slightly-above-average pitcher with an $18 million contract for 2012 would be an easy job under any circumstances, but Zambrano's selfish actions have made getting any kind of value in return a near-impossible task.
Carlos Zambrano won 125 games as a Cub - a total topped by only three other Cubs pitchers since World War II (Fergie Jenkins, Greg Maddux, and Rick Reuschel, who has an awesome nickname). Only Jenkins recorded more strikeouts as a Cub than Zambrano. Only eight pitchers in major league history have hit more home runs than Zambrano, who had 23. And in 2008, he pitched the Cubs' first no-hitter since 1972. But unfortunately, that's not what fans will remember. They'll likely remember him the way baseball fans remember players like Dick Allen and Bradley - both of whom had emotional issues that prevented them from reaching their full potential as players and teammates. Despite the anger management issues, Zambrano is still young enough and healthy enough that someone will probably find a spot for him on a 2012 major league roster. But it won't be the Chicago Cubs' roster.
So farewell, Big Z. Thanks for the memories, and best of luck to you getting not only your professional life together, but also getting your personal life together.
Welcome aboard, Mike Thomas! The former Cincinnati Athletic Director has been named to succeed Ron Guenther as University of Illinois Athletic Director, and I especially liked this quote from his introductory press conference:
"Intercollegiate athletics are a critical element of the campus community, and I understand the importance of student-athletes excelling in both the playing arena and the classroom," Thomas said. "The U of I has the essential pieces--facilities, staff, athletes, alumni and fans--for continued excellence and success, and I'm deeply honored and excited to be able to lead the Fighting Illini."
Since football and basketball are my focus here, I'll note that when Thomas started as Cincinnati AD in 2005, the Bearcats football team was in the middle of a run of mediocrity: 4-7 in 2003, 7-5 in 2004, 5-7 in 2005. To fix that, he hired Brian Kelly to run the football team, and Kelly quickly brought the Bearcats to national prominence, going 34-6 over the next four seasons, including two BCS bowl game appearances. Unfortunately, after Kelly left for Notre Dame, Thomas didn't do as well picking a successor (Butch Jones, who led the Bearcats to a 4-8 record last year). Interestingly, both Kelly and Jones were coaching at Central Michigan when Thomas hired them, so I guess that means we can anticipate Dan Enos being our next head coach whenever Thomas tires of Ron Zook. Hey, at least Enos was a Big Ten guy.
As for basketball, Thomas had to deal with the aftermath of Bob [t]Huggins's resignation, and his first (and only) hire was Mick Cronin. The Bearcats were a mess during Cronin's first two years (11-19 and 13-19) due in part to having to completely rebuild the program, and moving from Conference USA to the loaded Big East didn't help those win-loss records. But by his fifth year (last season), Cronin had the Bearcats back in the NCAA tournament (26-9, 11-7) for the first time since the end of the [t]Huggins regime, where they beat Missouri before losing to eventual champion UConn. Not a bad clean-up job.
So, to recap: that's one home-run hire (Kelly), one double off the base of the wall (Cronin), and one foul ball off the end of the bat (Jones). All in all, not a bad record, especially if Thomas can find another Brian Kelly type to run one (or both) of our major sports programs. If nothing else, Illini fans finally have some certainty, and we can start hoping for some accountability from the new AD as well.
The Cubs and Indians have been talking about a Kosuke Fukudome trade for a few days now, but apparently it took having a no-hitter thrown against them to spur the Indians into action. Jim Hendry has sent Fukudome to the Indians for two low-level prospects: 21-year-old OF Abner Abreu (who has a .294 OPB and 102/22 K/BB ratio in A-Ball this year, meaning that he should fit right in with the Cubs' organizational philosophy); and 25-year-old RHP Carlton Smith (who in two years at AAA Columbus has posted a 5.46 ERA and a 1.61 WHIP). Oh, and the Cubs will be picking up most of Fukudome's remaining salary for the year (all but $775K). So as far as return, not much in the way of prospects, and not much in the way of salary relief this year, although maybe enough to help get contracts done with some of the Cubs remaining unsigned 2011 draftees. But how much can you expect to get for a 34-year-old corner OF with a $13.5 million contract and a .369 slugging percentage? Of course, to the Indians, who have lost Shin-Soo Choo to injury and have been using a platoon of Travis Buck (.617 OPS) and Austin Kearns (.632 OPS) in RF, Kosuke must look like Mel Ott.
Fukudome never became the player the Cubs thought they were getting when they signed him. The Cubs expected him to become a middle-of-the-order run producer from the left side, but that role didn't work out for him, as his high OBP made him more suited for the top of the order (unfortunately it wouldn't be the last time the Cubs made that mistake while assessing a player's skill set. Of course, had Fukudome hit the way the Cubs thought he would in 2008, that 2009 mistake would never have been made in the first place. But I digress). Eventually, the Cubs found themselves in a similar situation with Kosuke as they were in with Matt Murton - another player with a solid on-base skills, but not enough power to be a corner OF and not good enough on defense to play CF. Fukudome's habit of fast starts (.979 April OPS) and slow, painful declines during the season (.772 career OPS) was maddening, as were the ever-popular "helicopter" swinging strikeouts. Bottom line - Fukudome's skills and the Cubs' needs weren't a good match. Since he would have found himself playing elsewhere in 2012, at least now he finds himself in a pennant race.
With Fukudome gone, the Cubs will let Tyler Colvin, who is pretty much the complete opposite of Fukudome (decent power, low OBP), take most of the playing time in RF, and the Cubs will be down to two regulars (Soto and Peña) who consistently work counts. And I guess this is as good a time as any to recall Kosuke's greatest moment as a Cub, which came in his very first game in blue pinstripes and gave us hope that the 2008 season was going to be a special one:
Thanks, Kosuke, for your often underappreciated skills, and best of luck to you in Cleveland, where I hope you'll help keep the Indians ahead of the 3rd place AL Central team.
One year ago today, I came up with a bold, innovative idea that promised to revolutionize the way we viewed Internet sports coverage. But instead of pursuing that idea, I started this blog. When I first put fingers to keyboard, I had no idea my favorite teams would provide so much material. So on the occasion of the first birthday of "The Frustrated Fan", let's take a look at some of the highlights from my first year of blogging:
The Cubs made a nearly seamless transition from a hopeless, crappy 2010 season to a hopeless, crappy 2011 season.
The Bears surprisingly won the NFC Central and hosted the NFC Championship Game (that's good)...which they lost to the Packers, who went on to win the Super Bowl (that's bad).
With an exciting freshman QB at the helm, the Illini football team overcame the frequently idiotic coaching of Ron Zook and won their first bowl game of the new millennium.
Bruce Weber finally won an NCAA tournament game at Illinois without players recruited by Bill Self, then lost in the next round of the tournament to a team full of players recruited by Bill Self.
And (perhaps) best of all, Ron Guenther's reign as Illinois Athletic Director came to a peaceful end.
So many memories - and so many questions still to be answered in the upcoming year:
Which veterans will the Cubs dump at the trade deadline? With over $40 million in payroll coming off the books in 2012, whom will the Cubs bring in to upgrade next year's roster? And will Jim Hendry be the GM doing that off-season upgrading?
Will the NFL lockout end in time for the season to begin as scheduled? And wouldn't a cancelled NFL season actually be better than the alternative - a season in which the Packers stand a good chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions?
Can Zook build on last season's success after losing his best offensive player and two best defensive players to the NFL draft? If not, how much longer will the new AD (whoever (s)he is) keep him around?
Shouldn't a basketball team which possesses three consecutive highly-ranked recruiting classes and plays a relatively soft non-conference schedule and in a weak Big Ten be able to comfortably make the NCAA tournament? And if Weber's Illini spend another Selection Sunday on the bubble (or worse), how much longer will the new AD (whoever (s)he is) keep him around?
Stick around to get the answers to these (and many more) questions. It's sure to be a better "Year Two" than the Ricketts family is having!
In a previous post, I speculated on which washed-up starters the Cubs would try out next. In doing so, somehow I overlooked Dave Bush. Fortunately, Jim Hendry did not, as Bush has been signed to a minor league deal by the Cubs organization. Bush has been so bad during his career that, unlike a lot of crappy pitchers, he hasn't fared well against the Cubs (lifetime 2-10, 5.28 ERA). The good news is that if we're down to picking up guys who can't even beat the Cubs, we must be scraping the bottom of the barrel now, and there shouldn't be too many more of these signings.
You'd think that it wouldn't be possible for a Chicago baseball team to make a more desperate move than this one, but then along come the White Sox to do just that. Being released by the 2011 Cubs is pretty much the definition of "finished", but Kenny Williams must have slept through the first half of the season, as Doug Davis, who went 1-7 with a 6.50 ERA for the Cubs, was signed to a minor league deal by the White Sox on Friday.
So it's not enough that the White Sox have beaten the Cubs on the field and won the BP Crosstown Cup each of the last two years. By signing a pitcher who's even worse than the one the Cubs signed today, now their GM is apparently trying to wrestle the title of "Worst GM in Chicago" away from ours. Well, Kenny, you may have won this round, but you've still got a long way to go if you want to catch up to Jim Hendry in this race.
It's great to know that I can leave the Cubs for two weeks and come back to find everything's almost exactly the way I left it. Sure, the Cubs have swapped in one has-been starting pitcher (Ramon Ortiz) for another (Doug Davis), but they still can't win more than two straight games and still have the second worst record in the major leagues as we hit the All-Star Break.
As for the All-Star Game itself, at least the Cubs' pity only representative in the game is the one who's most worth watching. But even the presence of Starlin Castro on the National League's roster isn't enough to compel me to tune in tonight. The whole "this time it counts" novelty has run its course, and not just for me. TV ratings for the All-Star Game have steadily dropped since the infamous 2002 tie game, to the point where last year's Game was the least-watched midsummer "classic" ever. While many people may attribute that to Fox Sports's taking over coverage of the game and to "Buck-McCarver Fatigue" in general, I think another culprit helps explain the declining interest in the All-Star Game - interleague play.
To this Cubs fan, the results of Tuesday's doubleheader against the Giants weren't exactly a surprise. But after the double-dip, my doctors have advised me to stay away from the Cubs for a while - no watching, no listening, no tracking games on the Web, and certainly no blogging.
So with the NFL lockout still in place and Illini football and basketball in a summer dead zone, nothing else should be happening; as a result we'll be unplugged here for a short time. Here's hoping that by the time I come back, the Cubs will have ripped off six or seven straight wins, instead of closing in on (or passing) the Astros for the worst record in the major leagues. See y'all soon!
It's been a rough first half of the season for the Chicago Cubs. There have been many instances when it seemed that things couldn't get any worse, only to discover that they could, in fact, sink way lower. But now, I think we've finally hit rock bottom.
"Wait," I hear you saying. "The Cubs didn't hit rock bottom when our manager gave multiple starts to a LOOGY reliever, or when he repeatedly used a player with only 17 career HR in over 300 career games in the #3 spot in the batting order?"
One of Bruce Weber's five-year droughts ended in March, when the Illini beat UNLV for their first NCAA tournament win since 2006. However, another Weber drought continues - the Illini still have not had a player taken in the NBA draft since Dee Brown and James Augustine were second-round picks in the 2006 draft. Yes, Demetri McCamey was never a high-end prospect, and yes, Jereme Richmond was a big-time headcase. But it's frustrating to know that schools like Cleveland State, Hofstra, Oakland, and Charleston all managed to have players taken in this year's draft, but not one player recruited by Weber has ever been drafted.
As for McCamey and Richmond - I wish things had turned out better for you two this evening, but here's hoping that both of you can catch on with NBA teams that can find spots for you on their rosters.
Congratulations to all the Mavericks - Dirk Nowitzki, Jason Kidd, John McCain, James Garner, Mel Gibson, Tom Cruise - on winning your first ever NBA championship!
Also, a hearty "Mazel Tov!" should go out to owner Mark Cuban. Cuban took over a franchise that had missed the postseason ten straight years, but since then the Mavericks have now made eleven consecutive postseason appearances. Given his team's track record in a sport where it's more difficult to break through and win a championship (even after last night, only nine different franchises have won NBA championships in the last 30 years), I have no doubt that if MLB had let him purchase the Chicago National League Baseball Club, we'd see similar results at 1060 West Addison before long.
Whoever had June 5 as the day Carlos Zambrano had his first meltdown since being "cured" of his anger management problem - Mazel Tov! You win! Money quote:
We should know better than this. We play like a Triple-A team. This is embarrassing. Embarrassing for the team and the owners. Embarrassing for the fans. Embarrassed - that's the word for this team....We should play better here. We stink. That's all I've got to say."
It's good to see that someone on this team cares enough to have the guts to come out and say what everyone in the world (except for maybe the guy who matters most) is thinking. Big Z didn't necessarily have to throw his closer (or was it maybe his backup catcher or his pitching coach?) under the bus for poor pitch selection to Ryan Theriot in the bottom of the 9th inning. But I think that's a good thing. In my last post, I said this team wasn't even "fun" bad, and wondered if I'd have trouble sticking with them to the All-Star break. But considering Zambrano's history of scuffling with a teammate or two, a little internal dissension, especially involving Big Z, could make this snoozefest of a season worth watching after all.
EDIT: So it turns out Big Z wasn't actually angry when he said this, just frustrated. And boy, howdy, do I understand how that feels:
"What I said yesterday was (in) a moment of frustration," Zambrano said, before the first game of a series against Cincinnati. "I apologized to Marmol. Let's move on."
Aw, great, thanks for making with the nicey-nice, guys. So now I guess the Cubs won't have any internal dissension, and after another listless performance against Cincinnati on Monday night, it looks like Snoozefest 2011 is back in business.
So why do a Cubs mid-season review now, when the 2011 season isn't half-over yet? Well, we're 1/3 of the way through the season, the team hasn't played even up to my lowered pre-season expectations, and with all of the injuries and bad baseball I'm not sure if I'll still be paying attention to this team when they do reach the halfway point. Through 54 games, the Cubs are sporting a 23-31 record, good for the fourth-worst record in all of baseball, and they just finished a 3-6 homestand against three sub-.500 teams (Mets, Pirates, and Astros) with a flourish, getting swept by Houston, the team with the worst record in the NL. The Cubs have come by their record honestly, too - with a run differential of minus-45 (only two teams in baseball are worse right now), their expected won-loss record is 22-32. So if anything, they're lucky they aren't even worse.
Almost a year into this blog, and this is my first NBA post, because even though I'm a sports fan I'm just not really into the NBA. I know, I know - these are the best basketball players in the world, playing at a ridiculously high level - what's not to like? Well, the regular season is too long, and too many teams make the playoffs, which makes the playoffs take too long (and why did the Bulls and Heat have four days off between games 2 and 3?), especially considering that the NBA is the least competitively-balanced of the four major leagues (only eight different teams have won championships in the last 30 years). It's great when you're a fan of a "have" (Lakers, Celtics, Jordan-era Bulls), but not so great for everyone else. But last night's season-ending Bulls loss compelled me to write for a couple of reasons:
It's been a rough beginning to the 2011 season for Cubs OF/1B Tyler Colvin. Playing time has been scarce, and when he has found his way onto the field, he's managed a grotesque .113/.191/.258 line (OPS+ of 19) in 62 at-bats. So after Monday's loss to Cincinnati, the Cubs brass decided to end Colvin's misery and give him a chance to regroup in Triple-A Iowa.
In truth, while Colvin posted decent numbers in his rookie season - 20 home runs in only 358 at bats, along with a .500 slugging percentage - there were some red flags, particularly his poor 100/30 K/BB ratio. But it's not as simple as saying he's another Corey Patterson, and that pitchers have figured out that you don't have to throw him strikes to get him out. Looking at Colvin's strikeout and walk totals this year (17/6), the ratio is pretty similar to last year's, as is the percentage of strikeouts and walks per plate appearance (in 2010: 25.3% of PA were strikeouts, 7.6% were walks; in 2011: 25% of his PA have been strikeouts, 8.8% have been walks). The real problem is just that there's no place to put Colvin into the lineup right now to give him a chance to straighten things out at the plate. He can't really play CF. Alfonso Soriano has been the only Cub to show any power (11 HR, no other Cub has more than 4). Kosuke Fukudome has been off to his usual hot April start (.886 OPS) and since he and Colvin are both left-handed hitters, they can't be platooned. What's worse for Colvin is that Reed Johnson, a better defender, has posted a 1.086 OPS (in very limited playing time) and has thus passed Colvin for the 4th outfielder spot.
The good news for Colvin is that each of the Cubs regular corner outfielders have glaring weaknesses: for Soriano - a .293 OBP, with fewer walks than Colvin in more than twice as many plate appearances, while displaying the range and catching ability of a cactus in left field; for Fukudome - the fact that it's no longer April, and he generally hits worse as the season progresses. It's the same limitations that last year, helped Colvin get the opportunity to play as much as he did, and if he hits well in Iowa he'll get another chance to take at-bats from Fukudome and/or Soriano (and Johnson, once he comes back to earth) later in the season.
The worst news, as far as Cubs fans are concerned? As bad as Colvin has been this year, he still has more HR and as many RBI as the guy who's been our primary #3 hitter, and more HR than our primary clean-up hitter too.
After making brief comments, Bruce Weber and Ron Zook were last seen purchasing large quantities of Pepto Bismol at the thought of actually being held responsible for on-field/on-court results. As for Illini fans, who suffered through Guenther's seemingly endless tolerance for mediocrity, the response was nearly universal:
Good news - the Cubs are putting an end to the James Russell experiment and are going to use an actual major league starting pitcher on Saturday against the Giants!
Bad news - that actual major league starting pitcher will be 35-year-old Doug Davis, who will be making his first big league start since off-season elbow surgery. Davis has a career WHIP of 1.50, which ranks 64th among the 65 active pitchers with at least 1000 IP (side note - our opening day starter is also very close to the bottom of that list). Davis does have a career ERA of 2.98 and career WHIP of 1.19 at Wrigley Field, and was the winning pitcher for Arizona in Game Two of the 2007 NLDS (a/k/a the "Ted Lilly spikes his glove" game), so you could file this one under "if you can't beat 'em, sign 'em" - that's how they got Derrek Lee, after all. On the other hand, if the Cubs signed every "Cub killer" in the major leagues they'd probably have about 400 players in their organization.
It's sad to know that a team with the second-highest payroll in the National League and a (supposedly) vastly improved farm system doesn't have any better options than bringing Doug Davis in as the 5th starter. It also doesn't answer the question of what the Cubs are going to do about their 4th starter Casey Coleman (he of the 1.95 WHIP and 18/20 K/BB Ratio) until Randy Wells and/or Andrew Cashner return from the DL (although it looks like Wells is finally going to start a rehab assignment). On the plus side, despite Russell and Coleman combining to go 1-7 with a 8.16 ERA in their 10 starts, the Cubs are ahead of Milwaukee in the standings, so I guess things could be worse (see - I can be positive!)
