Illini vs. Indiana Preview - We're Leaving Home

Take away the names on the jerseys. If you told most college football fans that a 5-0, top-20 team had a game on Saturday against a team that had lost all four of its games against FBS competition so far this year (including losses to juggernauts Ball State and North Texas), how many would pick against the 5-0 team? Right - no one would; everyone would pick them to win big. But when that 5-0 team is #16 (or #19) ranked Illinois, a team that has left its supporters feeling disappointed so many times over the years, it's somewhat understandable why some people (including people who write for this blog) might feel a little nervous about the Illini's prospects against Indiana on Saturday. While Illini football fans have grown accustomed to nebulous feelings of impending doom, there are actual reasons to feel nervous:

• The trip to the fake Memorial Stadium in Bloomington will mark the first time the Illini have traveled away from Champaign this season, so we don't know how the Illini will react when faced with a "hostile" crowd (hostile being a relative term in this case, since a lot of Indiana fans probably aren't even aware that they have a football team).  
• It's true that the Hoosiers are 1-4 so far this year (the win came against South Carolina State, an FCS school with a losing record).  However, their four losses have been by a combined 19 points.  On the other hand, the Illini have won their last three games by a total of nine points. In other words, the Hoosiers might not be as bad as their record indicates, and the Illini might not be as good as their record indicates. 
• While most of his predecessors have been rather anonymous, first-year Hoosiers Head Coach Kevin Wilson hasn't taken long to show that he's a jackass, but he's a jackass who might have extra motivation to stick it to the Illini. 

So is there legitimate cause for concern regarding Saturday's game?  If the Hoosiers are to spring the upset on Saturday, here are some areas where they might make it happen:


Indiana's Red Zone Defense
Indiana's opponents have reached the red zone 20 times so far this season, but their defense has allowed only 8 touchdowns on those red zone possessions. That 40% rate is the second-best in the Big Ten this year. While the Illini have done a fair job of producing in the red zone, scoring touchdowns on 65% of their opportunities (including both go-ahead scores against Northwestern last week), the Illini have also struggled at times deep in opponents' territory in the last two games. It's important that the Illini convert their red zone possessions into sixes, not threes (or zeros).  Touchdowns could demoralize the Hoosiers; turning the ball over on downs (as they did against Western Michigan) or via an actual turnover (as they did against Northwestern) could fire them up.

Turnovers
This one's obvious - failure to protect the football can keep a good team from dominating a bad team. Indiana has a plus-3 turnover margin through their first five games and is tied for second in the Big Ten in takeaways. Against Northwestern, the Illini committed three costly turnovers.  Simply put - the Illini need to reverse these trends on Saturday.

The Illini Ground Game
Why should this be a problem when the Illini are averaging over 200 yards per game on the ground and the Hoosiers are currently last in the Big Ten in run defense, allowing over 190 yards rushing per game? Well, this marks the second consecutive week that the Illini are facing the worst run defense in the Big Ten, but our paltry 82 yards rushing last week enabled Northwestern to escape the basement in that category. The inability to establish the running game against Northwestern was one of the reasons why the Illini found themselves in a huge hole last Saturday, and a repeat performance against another soft run defense this week could do the same thing.  Fortunately for the Illini, Indiana's pass rush this season has been weaker than watered-down Milwaukee's Best Light - they've managed only two sacks in their first five games.  Consequently, even if the running game continues to struggle, forcing Nathan Scheelhaase to throw, he should have plenty of time to pick apart Indiana's secondary, just as he did against Northwestern.

Special Teams
Poor special teams play can create bad field position, which is another way to give an advantage to an inferior opponent.  And in this game, it could be a decided advantage for Indiana.  The Illini are among the worst teams in the nation in both kickoff return yardage (116th out of 120 FBS teams) and punt return yardage (110th). Conversely, Indiana excels in both of these areas, ranking 26th in the country in kickoff return yardage allowed and 11th in punt return yardage allowed.

Kicking Game
In Mitch Ewald, Indiana has one of the better kickers in the Big Ten. Like Illini kicker Derek Dimke, Ewald possesses both accuracy and range, having connected on 5 of 7 attempts this year (including two 49-yard successes) and on 21 of 26 attempts (81%) in his Indiana career. Ewald has also shown an ability to come through in the clutch. Last year at Purdue, he sent the game into overtime with a last-second, 26 yard field goal; minutes later, his 31-yard field goal won the game and the Old Oaken Bucket trophy for the Hoosiers. While it may not sound like much, for a Hoosiers team that's been to only one bowl game since 1993, that's about as good as it gets. Field goal failures by the opposition helped the Illini pull out narrow wins over Arizona State and Western Michigan, but the Illini can't count on that happening in Bloomington if Saturday's game is close.

Prediction
That seems like a long list of potential pitfalls. But the Hoosiers would probably need several of those issues to work out in their favor to have a chance to win on Saturday. The Illini should be able to move the ball any way they want against the Hoosiers' defense.  And thanks to instability at the quarterback position, the Hoosiers' offense has yet to find consistency.  It's unlikely that they'll suddenly find it against an Illini defense that has allowed only 17.4 points per game. The Illini will return to Champaign undefeated, and (just as importantly) bowl-eligible.

Illinois 34
Indiana 13