Year Two - A Cubs 2011 Season Preview

"Year Two" of the Ricketts regime will begin on Friday, and whoever scheduled the Cubs season opener for April Fool's Day has a great sense of humor. Thanks to payroll constraints, the Cubs return most of the same cast of characters from "Year One" (which looked like just about every other year I've lived through as a Cubs fan). Jim Hendry was able to bring in a new first baseman, a new/old face to help out in the bullpen, and a middle-of-the-rotation starter, and he deserves praise for biting the bullet on Carlos Silva and removing his bloated contract from our roster, guaranteed money be damned. But will the changes Hendry made be enough to vault the Cubs into serious contention in the competitive NL Central?

The Pitching Staff

The Cubs may lack a true ace, but they have a solid (and healthy) starting rotation, which is more than the Brewers, Reds, and Cardinals can say right now. Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Matt Garza, and Randy Wells should each give the Cubs between 180 and 200 quality innings. Much was made of Garza's poor performance in spring training, but unless he's hiding an injury there's no cause for alarm. Marlon Byrd hit over .400 during spring training, but I haven't seen anyone writing about how he's going to threaten Ted Williams this year. Koyie Hill went 1 for 32 during spring training, but...OK, bad example, but you get my point - spring training is such a small sampling of games that it's hardly predictive of a player's performance for the year. Andrew Cashner is the only unknown in the rotation right now, and you could do a lot worse than having him as your fifth starter (see Silva, Carlos or Estes, Shawn). The Cubs are also strong in the back of the bullpen with Carlos Marmol closing and Kerry Wood and Shawn Marshall setting up. The middle relief crew (Grabow, Samardzija, Russell, Mateo) is a big pile of "meh", but that's true of pretty much any team's middle relievers.

The Offense

Besides Geovany Soto and Starlin Castro, the Cubs don't have any offensive players on the upside of their careers. They do have some aging veterans who have put up big numbers in the past (Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Pena), and the team will need a big bounceback from at least two of those players (and maybe all three) to contend in 2011. I've said it before and I'll say it again - Pena's move from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park makes him a good bet to dramatically improve on last year's numbers. I also think Aramis Ramirez (.271/.321/.526 post-All-Star Break in 2010 - which is similar to his career .282/.340/.499 line) has another big year left in him. But Soriano is getting more and more one-dimensional on offense (he had fewer stolen base attempts than AJ Pierzynski did last year), so he's going to have to top 30 homers (a total he hasn't reached since 2007), for him to be a net positive in the lineup.

As for the projected lineup (at least if the Opening Day lineup is any indication), I like seeing Kosuke Fukudome in the leadoff role, where his patient approach (he finished second on the team in 2010 with a .371 OBP), plays well. But if Mike Quade really plans on using Byrd (.429 SLG in 2010, career .423 SLG) in the number three slot all year when other teams in the NL Central will be using the likes of Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, or Ryan Braun, I'll guarantee that this team will finish no better than they did last year. I'd move Ramirez and Soto up to the 3 and 4 spots and move Byrd down to 6th or 7th in the order, next to Soriano. Everything else looks OK to me, although it would look better if the Cubs had an actual everyday second baseman.

Outlook

The 2011 pitching staff should be able to keep the Cubs in most games, just like last year, when the Cubs led the NL in quality starts. But I can't see the Cubs generating enough offense to be able to push them past all three of the teams that finished ahead of them last year. The Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals each boast at least one MVP candidate in the middle of their lineups, but the Cubs don't. So just like last year, I see between 74 and 78 wins, a 4th place finish, and one more "Wait Till Next Year" for Cubs fans.

Six Years Ago Tonight...

Saturday, March 26, 2005, was the date of one of the greatest moments (if not the greatest moment) in Illini basketball history. I still enjoy watching these highlights of the comeback against Arizona, but now it depresses me when I get to the end because it makes me realize (1) how far we've fallen as a program, and (2) that as long as Bruce Weber is our head coach, we'll never get to see our team cut down the nets again.

Farewell, Class of 2011 - Illini Season Wrap-up

I always find the day on which the NCAA tournament carries on without the Illini to be a sad one. This year, thanks to the vagaries of scheduling, the Illini were the last team eliminated in the "third round" (f/k/a "the second round")*, so today is that sad day. It also provides a good opportunity to remember the accomplishments of the class of 2011 - Demetri McCamey, Mike Davis, Mike Tisdale, and Bill Cole.

* I guess you could say we made the "Sweet Seventeen" - maybe we should hang a banner in the Assembly Hall to commemorate it!

EDIT - we actually weren't the last team eliminated in the "third round". I forgot that FSU's evisceration of Notre Dame finished after our game did. How about an "Elite Eighteen" banner instead?

The outgoing senior class featured four good citizens who never caused any trouble off the court, and as individuals they made quite an impact on the Illini record book: McCamey finished second all-time in assists; Davis finished second all-time in rebounds; Tisdale finished second all-time in blocked shots; and Cole...ummm...posted a lot of Matto Chart points, I guess. Unfortunately, they never achieved much in the way of team success. They never came close to a Big Ten title (don't throw the second-place finish of 2008-09 at me when they were closer to ninth place than first), they only made two NCAA tournament appearances, and they managed just the one NCAA tournament victory this year against UNLV. They also have the misfortune of being probably the most disrespected class in Illini history (mostly by supporters of Bruce Weber, who'll do anything, including trashing players, to prop him up). But despite their limitations as players, I'd say that their lack of team success falls in Weber's lap, as Weber failed them in so many ways:

• Even though Tisdale, McCamey, and Davis started together from their sophomore year on, Weber never was able to get them to run his motion offense effectively, and he never adjusted to find a scheme that would better suit his players' skill sets.
• Weber failed to recruit anyone of consequence in the classes immediately before and after their class.
• Although recruiting finally picked up with the high school classes of 2009 and 2010, Weber still failed to bring in a true point guard to back up McCamey or a non-finesse big man to complement Davis, Cole and Tisdale.
• Weber failed to properly integrate the younger talent (the Illini featured five consensus top-100 players, including one McDonald's All-American, among their underclassmen) with the upperclassmen.

So thank you, class of 2011 - you had to do a lot of heavy lifting to carry the team throughout your Illini careers, and there was a lot of disappointment, but you handled yourselves with dignity and at least you went down fighting. A lot of Illini fans may not realize it yet, but we'll miss you and your contributions going forward. Best of luck to you in your future endeavors.

Can the Mets Teach the Cubs a Lesson?

Yes, this is a baseball blog, too. I've been a little Illini-heavy lately, but since they're out of the NCAA tournament, you'll be hearing a lot more about the Cubs. But first, a few words about the Mets. Hmmm...that sounds confusing, but I promise that it'll all shake out by the end of this post.

Yesterday, the Mets released lefthander Oliver Perez, eating the remainder of his $12 million contract. This came just days after they released second baseman Luis Castillo, eating the remainder of his $6 million contract. Two thoughts:

1. Remember last year at the trading deadline, when there was a rumor that the Cubs and Mets were discussing a deal that would have sent Carlos Zambrano to New York for Perez and Castillo? I'm not sure how much truth there was to that story, but considering how well Zambrano finished last season and that Perez and Castillo appear to be finished, we Cubs fans can thank our lucky stars that the trade never actually went through. Kudos to you, Jim Hendry!

2. Now let's see if Hendry can follow the Mets' lead and earn some extra kudos from me by eating some of the Cubs' bloated contracts (I'm mostly thinking of this one).

Justice is Finally Done - Bruce Pearl is Fired!

One day after the end of the Illini basketball season (I'll have more to say about that soon), we Illini fans with older memories received some fantastic news. In the last six months, Bruce Pearl has had his name dragged through the mud courtesy of an NCAA investigation, lost $1.5 million in salary, was suspended from coaching for part of the SEC portion of Tennessee's schedule, and been humiliated in a first-round NCAA tournament loss. Now comes the cherry on the icing on the cake - Bruce Pearl has been fired as Tennessee coach for his unethical behavior (although the AP story still gets its history wrong - here's the correct version of what happened between Pearl and the Illini).

It's good to see that Pearl finally got what he deserved, and even though it took over 20 years, I'm glad to see Lou Henson and Jimmy Collins are vindicated, and maybe now Henson will get what he deserves - a spot in the Basketball Hall of Fame. And this is probably the best way to express Illini fans' feelings about you, Bruce Pearl:

Bill Self Used to Coach at Illinois? No Way! Illinois-Kansas Preview

As Illinois gets set to face #1 seed Kansas on Sunday night, you may hear something about Kansas coach Bill Self being the coach at Illinois before Bruce Weber was. I think there's some sort of federal law that anyone who writes about college basketball has to mention it in his/her preview of the game, and I'm sure we'll hear about it at least thirty times during tonight's broadcast. I don't want to spend any time in a federal pound-me-in-the-ass prison, so to be safe, I've gotten that out of the way right up front.

Now, before we get to tonight's game, I need to say one more thing about Friday's win over UNLV. Of course I'm glad we won, and I'm especially happy for the seniors for winning an NCAA tournament game. But some of the extreme Weber supporters are going a little over the top in their celebration, as if the win validates everything they've said to prop up Weber, when all we did was win an 8/9 seed game in the first round. Friday's win doesn't erase the last four years of mediocrity, and it doesn't prove that Weber is a better coach than Lon Kruger (unless you also want to argue that Mike Davis is a better coach than Mike Krzyzewski because Indiana once beat Duke in the NCAA tournament). And it bothers me that if Illinois had played all year like they did on Friday, then they wouldn't have to face a team like Kansas in the second round. So let's try not to get too carried away.

OK - finally on to the actual game preview. I could run numbers or player matchups, but they'll favor Kansas. I could talk about the coaching matchup, but Kansas has that in their favor too. The only chance Illinois has tonight is if they play the way they did in the first half on Friday for the entire game. But Illinois still hasn't won back-to-back games since the first week of January, and the odds of them merely playing two great games in a row at this point (to say nothing of winning them both), especially when the second one is against a team that a lot of people are picking to win the NCAA tournament, will be too much to overcome. As much as I'd love to see Illinois playing next weekend, I'll have to say that the ride ends tonight.

Kansas 78

Illinois 62

Thank You Seniors - Illini Pound UNLV

Well, I was half-right - UNLV did score 62 points on Friday night. But the Illini, led by Demetri McCamey and Mike Davis, dominated the Runnin' Rebels, putting up a lot more points than I expected in a not-as-close-as-the-final-score-indicated 73-62 win. I loved seeing the Illini beating the UNLV press consistently, resulting in a lot of easy fast-break buckets, as well as seeing DJ Richardson re-emerge, and Crandall Head and Meyers Leonard contribute.

A hearty Mazel Tov to Bruce Weber, who has finally won a tournament game at Illinois with his own players, and to the seniors, who won't have to wear the scarlet number "zero" (number of tournament wins) for the rest of their lives. And one more important fact - for only the second time since the NCAA tournament began seeding teams, the Illini beat a higher-seeded team.

The hill gets awfully steep in the next round. To have a chance to beat Kansas, Illinois will have to play the entire game like they played in the first half against UNLV. But for now, let's just enjoy this win.

OSKEE-WOW-WOW!

One Very Last Chance - Illinois vs. UNLV Preview

Last week, I wrote that the Big Ten tournament gave the Illinois senior class a chance to clean the slate and re-write their legacy. Of course, not only did they fail to clean the slate, but by staging a late-game collapse against Michigan they pretty much wrote the same legacy in permanent marker. However, the NCAA Tournament's selection committee was generous - by placing Illinois against #8 seed UNLV, they gave the Illini a fairly even shot to win their opening round game. The last group of 4-year players at Illinois to not win an NCAA tournament game graduated in 1980. Can this year's seniors take advantage of their chance to avoid that fate?

What to expect
Some things that jump out from looking at the profiles of UNLV and Illinois:

Both teams play tough defense, which isn't surprising considering who the coaches are. Lon Kruger's UNLV squad is 15th in the nation in defensive efficiency rating, while Bruce Weber's Illini are 23rd. The two teams are virtually identical in effective field goal percentage defense - UNLV is 26th in the nation; Illinois is a hair behind (27th). One red flag - UNLV is 17th in the nation in turnover percentage, but Illinois is 259th. This may give the Runnin' Rebels an edge by allowing them to pick up some easy points, which could be crucial in a game in which points will likely be hard to come by.

On offense, the teams couldn't be more different. Illinois, for better or worse, is a team that relies on jump-shooting. This results in the team not getting many opportunities at the foul line - the Illini are 334th (out of 345 teams) in the country in percentage of points per game from free throws. UNLV is pretty much the opposite of Illinois. They don't rely on perimeter shooting, as they are only 276th in the country in percentage points received from 3-point shots. However, they do get to the foul line significantly more often than Illinois does, and again, in a close game with tough defense those easy points could become a factor.

How I see it
The good news - I don't think we'll see a late-game collapse like in last week's Michigan game. The bad news - that's because I don't think Illinois will be able to pull away from UNLV for long enough to build a twelve-point lead. This one could very well shape up like the Illini's game at East Lansing last month. That was a tight game throughout, with neither team getting a significant advantage at any point, and the game was tied with four minutes left. But in those final minutes, Michigan State made plays, Illinois didn't, and the Spartans won.

I see a similar flow to this one, with the game being within one possession or even tied coming out of the final TV timeout. Unfortunately, at that point the Illini will go into one of their patented offensive dry spells while UNLV will make enough plays, including drawing a few fouls and sinking some key free throws, to survive and advance. And, sadly, our NCAA tournament drought will reach five years.

UNLV 62

Illini 57

Sad News for ex-Cub Luis Salazar

Last week, ex-Cub Luis Salazar, now a minor league manager in the Braves organization, was hit in the face by a batted ball while standing in the dugout during a spring training game. Unfortunately, as a result of this incident, Salazar will lose his eye. The "good" news is that he's OK otherwise and will be able to resume managing after a short recovery period.

Aside from giving everyone a chance to remember to be thankful for what we have, this news also gives me a chance to remember a happier time in Salazar's (and my) life. The date - September 9, 1989. The situation - Cubs vs. Cardinals at Wrigley Field, with the Cubs clinging to a half-game first place lead over St. Louis. The Cubs trailed 2-1 late, but with first place in the balance, Salazar would drive in the tying run in the 8th inning and then the winning run in the 10th inning, and the Cubs would never relinquish first place for the rest of the season. Watching Andre Dawson score the winning run (see below) remains one of my all-time favorite Cubs moments. Thank you, Luis Salazar, for this great memory, and best of luck to you in your recovery.

Beep, Beep, Beep - Illini Back Their Way into NCAA Tournament

I've got to hand it to Bruce Weber - he's brought excitement back to Illini basketball. No, not on the court excitement - the team is as painful to watch as ever, and their offense in the final minutes of a game still runs like a clogged toilet. I'm talking about Selection Sunday excitement: being on the bubble, not knowing if/when we'll see our team's name displayed, watching half the brackets go by before finally getting the word that we've made the NCAA Tournament. That sure gets the blood pumping and the endorphins racing!

It's nice to know that a team with a .500 conference record, a team that didn't win back-to-back games even once over the final two months of the season, and a team that lost its conference tournament opener after blowing a 12-point lead (yes - this all refers to the same team) can not only "earn" a bid to the NCAA Tournament, but can get a #9 seed and avoid one of the new "play-in" games. So thanks to a really soft bubble and that win over North Carolina in November, I guess Ron Guenther has an excuse to not fire Bruce Weber. In fact, we can probably look forward to Weber getting a raise and/or contract extension for his "accomplishments" after this season ends.

As for the game itself, I'll have a preview of the UNLV Runnin' Rebels later, since I'll admit that I don't know too much about them. What I do know is that in the coaching department, the Illini will be at a severe disadvantage going up against Lon Kruger. I think a paraphrase of James T. Smith says it best: pitting Weber's coaching skills against Kruger's is like going against an army with a handgun. At least we won't be playing a true road game in the NIT like last year, and we'll have a chance to end our five-year NCAA tournament victory drought.

Illini Basketball - Marginally Relevant since 2006!

The Camel's Back is Broken - Fire Bruce Weber

There - I've said it. After Friday's loss to Michigan, the Bruce Weber era should be over, NCAA tournament appearance or not. Yes, of course it's the players who lost the game, say the Weber supporters - Weber didn't miss shots, or play bad defense, or allow the Wolverines to end the game on a 21-4 run after the Illini took a 12-point lead with about eight minutes to go. But how come the same thing happened at the end of the 2006 NCAA tournament loss to Washington, and at the end of the 2007 NCAA tournament loss to Virginia Tech? How come the players keep changing, but the team keeps choking away big leads? The only constant is Weber - he takes whatever talent he has and has them playing so tight that they are unable to execute down the stretch of tight games.

Yes, we might still make the NCAA tournament, but does this team deserve it? And does anyone (besides our potential first-round opponent and their fans) really want to see this Illini team play another meaningful game? And are things going to be better next year, when we'll have no seniors, no proven point guard or big men, and when too many of the "great recruits" we've already brought in have regressed (Richardson) or are basically invisible (Griffey, Head, Bertrand)? It's one thing watching ugly, boring basketball when the team wins (see 2008-09), but now we aren't even winning. The only way things are going to improve is by bringing in some fresh blood at the top. I wouldn't worry about losing our incoming recruits - they'd probably welcome the chance to play for a coach who might actually let them, you know, play.

Bottom line - Bruce Weber inherited a program that was on a par with Michigan State, and now we've fallen so far that we're even behind Michigan (to say nothing of Purdue, Ohio State, and Wisconsin). We're pretty much in the same boat with Minnesota, Penn State, and Northwestern - the "S.S. At Least We Aren't Indiana or Iowa". Our Big Ten record the last five years (44-44) is identical to the last five years of the Lou Henson era (45-45), only without the crippling NCAA sanctions. If not for the extra three NCAA tournament berths this year, we'd be in danger of missing the NCAA tournament for the third time in four years - and we might miss the tournament anyway.

Enough is enough. It's time to fire Bruce Weber.

The Fighting Illini and the Tabula Rasa

It's been a disappointing regular season for the Illini basketball team, as so much more was expected from them than "they'll probably make the NCAA tournament even if they lose their first Big Ten Tournament game". But with said Big Ten Tournament opener at hand, the team has a chance to clean the slate and re-write their legacy. A win today would, in fact, guarantee a spot in the NCAA tournament - it would get the team to 20 wins, and, perhaps more importantly, give them a second win over Michigan which would make it impossible for the Wolverines to get ahead of the Illini in the eyes of the NCAA tournament selection committee. We certainly don't want to see a repeat of last year, when Minnesota went on a run to the Big Ten Tournament championship game and essentially stole our spot in the NCAA tournament. Let's hope the team remembers that and takes care of business.

As I wrote before, Michigan has been playing well of late and really should have beaten the Illini in Champaign last month. Illinois, on the other hand, still hasn't won back-to-back games since the first week of January, so even coming off an impressive thrashing of Indiana, beating the Wolverines on a neutral floor is not going to be easy for the Illini. But for now, I'm going to skip any analysis, criticism, and predictions, and just jump in and cheer. I'd like to ask all Illini fans - however you feel about this team, the seniors, and Bruce Weber - to do the same, at least until the season's over.

Go Illini!

EDIT: So much for a clean slate. For the second year in a row, we'll be sweating out selection Sunday. A picture's worth a thousand words, but we only need one word to describe Illinois basketball:

Illini-Purdue: Not Exactly a Recap

There's not much need to rehash Tuesday night's Illinois loss at Purdue. It was the Boilermakers' Senior Night, and they are tough at Mackey Arena (16-0), so it's not a shock that the Illini came close and lost. Instead of focusing on the micro level, I'd rather take this opportunity to focus on the macro level.

When Matt Painter took over as head coach at Purdue, he inherited a mess. In Gene Keady's final season, the Boilermakers lost 21 games. However, in Painter's second season - in the year before his highly-touted recruiting class (Hummell, Johnson, and Moore) arrived in West Lafayette - he guided Purdue to the NCAA tournament and even won a game. And of course, things have only improved for Purdue since.

Contrast that story with Painter's former boss. Despite being in year two of the "Weber Can Recruit" era (two-thirds of Weber's highly-touted recruits already on campus), the Illini find themselves in a familiar position: kicking around the .500 mark in conference. If they beat Indiana on Saturday to get to 9-9, their overall Big Ten record in the five years since Dee Brown and James Augustine graduated will be exactly .500 (44 wins and 44 losses). For the fourth time in five years, the Illini will enter the Big Ten tournament needing to win a game to be sure of getting an NCAA tournament bid. And next year we can expect more of the same (if not worse), since four seniors are departing and only five players on the 2011-12 roster will have played any meaningful minutes in their Illini careers.

To summarize: Matt Painter needed only two years to reverse a horrible situation at Purdue; he started doing so before his best players arrived; and he's kept the arrow pointing upwards over the last four years. Even if we gloss over the fact that Bruce Weber didn't inherit the situation he's in - he created it - he's now had two years with more talented players on hand, and the program still shows no signs of progress. So how much more time does Weber get to turn the Illini program around? My two cents: if it hasn't happened by now, it's looking less and less likely that it's ever going to happen.