Illini, Tigers, and Bears, Oh My! The Almost Lost Weekend

Congratulations to my wife's grandmother, who turned 100 years old on Friday.  To celebrate, we drove up to Wisconsin on Saturday and spent the day with her, which left me unable to watch the Illini's 17-7 loss to Ohio State.   If anyone could figure out a way to lose a game in which the opponent completed only one pass in the entire game...well, it would have to be a team I root for, wouldn't it?  The Illini lost because the Buckeyes converted two turnovers into touchdowns, but the game wasn't sealed until a classic Ron Zook blunder in the final minutes.  With just over a minute left, the Illini had the ball and two time outs left, but faced 4th and 2 at the Ohio State 17 yard line.  But instead of kicking the field goal, the Illini went for the first down and failed, after which the Buckeyes ran out the clock.  Since you needed to score twice to win, why not kick the field goal there and leave as much time as possible to get the touchdown if you can recover the onside kick?  In the same situation last year, Northern Illinois took the field goal and then tried the onside kick (which the Illini recovered) even though the Huskies faced a longer kick than Derek Dimke would have attempted on Saturday, but I guess Ron Zook wasn't paying attention that day.  I only mention it because Lovie Smith made the exact same blunder at the end of last Monday's game against the Lions, and it would be nice if one of the football teams I root for had a coach who understood clock management.

Since I was on the road on Saturday night driving back to Chicago, I also missed Game 6 of the ALCS.  Apparently, so did the Detroit Tigers - they lost to the Texas Rangers 15-5, allowing the Rangers to repeat as American League champions.  And to be honest, I'm a little pissed at the Tigers right now, because they were the last team that could have prevented a nightmare World Series scenario.  With the Tigers out of the picture, this year's World Series winner will either be a hated rival, or a former loser franchise from Texas getting their first championship before I see the Cubs get one.  Now, where have I seen that before?  Oh, right.

But thanks to the Bears' performance on Sunday night, my sports weekend wasn't a complete disaster.  After Monday night's miserable performance, a home game against the hapless Minnesota Vikings (a/k/a "The Houston Astros of the NFC North") was just what the Bears needed. Too bad the Bears can't play the Vikings every week - the 39-10 win brought the Bears back to .500, and now I realize I may have been a little harsh in my assessment of the rest of the Bears season last week.  Other than the game at Green Bay, and maybe the game at Philadelphia, there's not a game on the remainder of the schedule that looks like a sure loss.  And with the Lions finally looking mortal Sunday, and with several other NFC contenders (Atlanta, Philadelphia) looking less than imposing so far this year, maybe the playoffs aren't such a reach for the Bears.  Of course, if the Bears couldn't get past the Packers to reach the Super Bowl last year, it's not like they have a shot to do it this year.  But I'm looking at it this way:  Lovie Smith's contract runs through 2013, so no matter how bad the Bears get this year, we're stuck with him through at least 2012, because there's no way in hell the McCaskeys fire a coach with two years remaining on his contract, right?   So since there's no reason to hope the Bears lose this year so they get rid of Smith faster (because that won't happen), we might as well hope for the best, and even a one-and-done #6 seed appearance in the playoffs would be worth it.  And don't worry, Smith-haters - with most of the Bears' star players on the wrong side of 30, and without enough quality young players in the pipeline to replace them, the end will come soon enough.

Illinois vs. Ohio State Preview: Illibuck-ing the Trend?

Imagine how the Illini teams of recent years would have reacted to one of the following scenarios:

• The opposing team returns the opening kickoff for a touchdown.
• While holding a four-point lead, the Illini commit a turnover inside their own five yard line.
• Ron Zook makes one of his patented* boneheaded coaching decisions.

*Actually, I'm not sure if it's patented, but I'm pretty sure he at least has the application on file at the U.S. Patent & Trademark Office.

Now, imagine all three of those things happening in the first half of the same game - no way the Illini win, right?  But this year's version of the Illini was able to overcome all of those mistakes and coast to an easy 41-20 win over Indiana last week.  Granted, the Hoosiers are terrible, but there have been plenty of occasions during the past few seasons where mistakes have cost the Illini wins over terrible teams.  No, I think what we're seeing here is a genuinely good Illinois football team.  With six wins, the Illini are already bowl-eligible, and it's just the fifth time in the last 16 years that the Illini can say that they'll be playing an extra game at the end of the season.  If the Illini can beat Ohio State (3-3, 0-2) on Saturday in Champaign, it would mark just the seventh time in the last 25 years that the Illini have managed a seven-win season.  But that would mean beating the Buckeyes at home - a feat the Illini haven't accomplished in twenty years.  Can the Illini pull it off and capture the Illibuck trophy for the first time since 2007?

Illini Surprise Buckeyes in Columbus!

You read that right, sports fans. I'm sure that no one in the Ohio State locker room expected Bruce Weber to put Crandall Head into the starting lineup for Tuesday night's game. Of course, that was the only surprise in the game, in which the Buckeyes coasted to an 89-70 win over the Illini. The scary part is that the Illini actually shot well tonight (over 50% from the field; 11-24 from 3-point range) and still got blown out. Losing the turnover battle 16-3 will do that, I guess. As for Crandall Head's playing time (16 minutes), I think that was a ploy by Weber - put Head into the lineup in a no-hope game, so Weber could say to the fans afterward: "see, the team isn't better with him out there. Now stop complaining, and let me bury him on the bench again while I go back to my regular ineffective player rotation."

So with Tuesday's loss, the Illini fall to 7-8 in Big Ten play. In a year in which Weber's roster is loaded with experience and talent, and pretty much every preseason publication tabbed the Illini as a top 25 team (and some even touted them as a darkhorse Final Four candidate), and most of the rest of the teams in the Big Ten stink, with a week and a half left in the regular season the Illini have a losing record in conference play and are headed full-steam ahead toward the NCAA tournament bubble. You could argue that this disappointing season is an aberration, except for the fact that in the (nearly) five years since Dee Brown and James Augustine graduated, the Illini's overall conference record is now 42-43. So this year's record is right in line with Bruce Weber's record without the players he inherited from Bill Self.

But don't worry, fellow Illini fans - better players are on the way! Never mind that we've been hearing that for two years, or that this was supposed to be the year when everything came together. What's that thing Cubs fans say...oh, right. Wait till next year!

Illini-Buckeyes Wrap-up

You'd think that since I picked Illinois to lose to Ohio State today, I wouldn't be too upset - they even came closer than I predicted. But when you factor in the eight point second half lead that got away, this loss represents a major missed opportunity.

So how come Ohio State loses last season's Player of the Year (Evan Turner) and comes back even better this year, while Illinois returns all five starters (and seven of their top nine scorers) from last season and adds three top 100 recruits (including a McDonald's All-American) but looks like they're headed for the NCAA tournament bubble again?

Bruce Weber - making Selection Sunday nerve-wracking since 2007.

Weekend Sports Extravaganzapaloozafest

We've got a big sports weekend cued up.

First, on Saturday, the Illini get a chance to do something they haven't done since the 2004-05 season - beat the #1 team in the country (Ohio State). And because the Buckeyes beat the top-ranked '04-05 Illini team, this would be a nice way (for the fans and for Bruce Weber, at least) to turn the tables. A Buckeyes fan might argue that we've already taken our revenge by beating their #1 ranked football team in 2007, and that the schools are even (and it's not like the Buckeyes will ever have a chance to defeat a #1 ranked Illinois football team). To that hypothetical fan, I'd say that I'd like to see some basketball-specific comeuppance tomorrow. Unfortunately, here are the scores of the last four OSU-Illini games in Champaign:

2007 - 62-44 L

2008 - 74-58 L

2009 - 67-49 W

2010 - 72-53 L

So the Buckeyes have really had our number of late, and Jared Sullinger is exactly the kind of player (highly skilled widebody) that we struggle to control. Even if we do somehow slow him down, Jon Diebler will kill us with a bunch of threes. Sorry, fellow Illini fans, I just don't see it happening. Prediction: Chestnuts 75, Illini 63

As for the other big weekend event - first, I'd like to point out that this is technically not the oldest NFL rivalry. That would be the Bears and Cardinals, who first played on November 28, 1920 (when the Cardinals were Chicago's team and the Bears were Decatur's team). But this is the NFL's "longest standing rivalry," with the teams having met every year (except the strike-shortened 1982 season) since 1921. There's not much I can add to the hype about the game, except to say that the last time one of my teams played a hated rival for a chance to play in the championship game was in the 1989 NCAA tournament. That was probably the worst sports fan experience I've ever had (even worse than the 1984 and 2003 Cubs) - knowing that the Illini were better than Michigan and would have crushed Seton Hall in the Finals, but having to see them lose and not get that chance.

I wish I could be more optimistic about Sunday's game, but even at home, against a team the Bears did hold in check in the two meetings this year, I just have a bad feeling that I'm going to have to live through another round of losing the big game to a team I can't stand. Maybe someday the Cubs will beat the Cardinals in the NLCS on their way to winning the World Series....OK, now that you're done laughing...Prediction: Packers 21, Bears 13.

Bonus Prediction: No way the Steelers lose twice at home to the Jets this year - Steelers 24, Jets 14.

Missed Opportunity

It's not every day that a huge underdog has a chance to beat the second-ranked team in the country, but the Illini had that chance on Saturday, hanging in against the Buckeyes before a late 4th quarter TD sealed a 24-13 Illini loss. I'm going to gloss over the fact that the Illini were unable to take advantage of the Buckeyes after knocking Heisman Trophy candidate Terrelle Pryor from the game. Instead, I'm looking at that 4th quarter.

After the Buckeyes kicked a field goal to make the score 17-10, the Illini responded with a 67-yard drive that stalled inside the OSU 15 yard line, and the Illini settled for a field goal, even though they would still need a TD to win, to make it 17-13. I'm not even going to complain about that decision, because it sounds like a second-guess. Besides, if the Illini defense could hold one more time, the offense could get the ball back with a shot to pull off the upset. But here's how things unfolded:

• A 15-yard personal foul penalty on the ensuing kick return gave OSU the ball near midfield.
• After allowing one first down, the Illini stopped the Buckeyes on a third down, which would have given them another possession, but on the play Justin Green lined up offside to give the Buckeyes a first down.
• The Buckeyes went on to score the clinching TD.

The offisde penalty was particularly galling. On the radio call, Kurt Kittner called it a "stupid penalty", especially because Green was lined up right in front of the Illini bench and none of the coaches moved him back. So once again, penalties killed the Illini (nine for 74 yards, including the two crucial ones I mentioned), and the poorly-coached, undisciplined Illini missed their chance to score a major upset. The good news: if the Illini play this way against Penn State (which looked helpless against Iowa last night), this team might be able to overcome itself and win.

A College Football Parable

One of the characters in this video represents Ohio State's football team; another represents the Illini. Can you guess which is which?



Yes, Illinois did upset Ohio St. in 2007, but there are a couple of big differences between that year's team and this year's team. First, the '07 Illini team had already beaten two ranked teams (Penn State and Wisconsin); this year's team has a six-point win over Northern Illinois as its only win over an FBS opponent so far. Second, the '07 game was in Columbus, where the Illini have won five times since 1991, the last time the Illini beat the Buckeyes in Champaign, where Saturday's game will be played.

Most oddsmakers have the Illini as a 17 or 18 point underdog for Saturday, and even that seems generous toward the Orange and Blue. The best thing that could come out of Saturday's game is for the team to avoid major injuries and to not get too discouraged. Next weekend's opponent (Penn State) looked vulnerable against Temple's rushing game last week (156 yards), which means Illinois might have a chance against the Nittany Lions, even in Happy Valley.

Prediction: Ohio State 42, Illinois 6