Illinois vs. Ohio State Preview: Illibuck-ing the Trend?

Imagine how the Illini teams of recent years would have reacted to one of the following scenarios:

• The opposing team returns the opening kickoff for a touchdown.
• While holding a four-point lead, the Illini commit a turnover inside their own five yard line.
• Ron Zook makes one of his patented* boneheaded coaching decisions.

*Actually, I'm not sure if it's patented, but I'm pretty sure he at least has the application on file at the U.S. Patent & Trademark Office.

Now, imagine all three of those things happening in the first half of the same game - no way the Illini win, right?  But this year's version of the Illini was able to overcome all of those mistakes and coast to an easy 41-20 win over Indiana last week.  Granted, the Hoosiers are terrible, but there have been plenty of occasions during the past few seasons where mistakes have cost the Illini wins over terrible teams.  No, I think what we're seeing here is a genuinely good Illinois football team.  With six wins, the Illini are already bowl-eligible, and it's just the fifth time in the last 16 years that the Illini can say that they'll be playing an extra game at the end of the season.  If the Illini can beat Ohio State (3-3, 0-2) on Saturday in Champaign, it would mark just the seventh time in the last 25 years that the Illini have managed a seven-win season.  But that would mean beating the Buckeyes at home - a feat the Illini haven't accomplished in twenty years.  Can the Illini pull it off and capture the Illibuck trophy for the first time since 2007?


When Ohio State has the football
After an off-season and early season full of turmoil, the Buckeyes finally get some good news this week. Dan Herron, their leading rusher from 2010, will suit up for the first time on Saturday, as his various suspensions are now over.  Herron's return should help boost the Buckeyes' middle-of-the-Big-Ten-pack-so-far-in-2011 running game.  But can he also help take pressure off of Ohio State's passing game, which ranks last in the Big Ten this year?  Braxton Miller, who suffered a sprained ankle last week against Nebraska, is expected to start at quarterback on Saturday, but if the injury affects his mobility, expect the Illini's ferocious pass rush to pad their tops-in-the-country sack total.  Actually, that may happen even if Miller is at full strength - Illini lineman Whitney Mercilus has more sacks by himself than four entire Big Ten teams do.

When Illinois has the football
Ohio State defensive back Bradley Roby created a stir (and some bulletin board material) this week by saying Illini receiver A.J. Jenkins, who leads the Big Ten in receptions, receiving yards, and touchdown catches, was "nothing special", noting that Jenkins's success is due to how the Illini "move him around, they try to get (favorable) matchups for him against linebackers and stuff like that."  Moving our best receiver around to try and get favorable match-ups?  Wow, what a concept!  Let's hope this doesn't get out, or everyone else will be doing it too!  Roby's comments notwithstanding, I'm sure the Buckeyes will in fact be spending plenty of time game-planning for Jenkins, because unlike last year, when the Illini ranked 1st in the conference in rushing but 10th in passing, the 2011 Illini are a much more balanced group, ranking 4th in rushing and 5th in passing.  So even if the Buckeyes manage to slow the Illini running game as they did last year (when they limited the Illini to 119 rushing yards), it doesn't necessarily mean they'll be able to keep the entire Illini offense in check again.

Special Teams

We're special!

After last week's opening kickoff debacle, the Illini now rank 100th or worse (out of 120 FBS teams) in three of the four return categories:  100th in opponents' kickoff returns; 108th in punt returns; and 117th in kickoff returns.  And the Illini rank 93rd in opponents' punt returns, so it's not like we've got a bunch of world-beaters there either.  Throw in our 116th ranked punting unit, and, Derek Dimke aside, our special teams are only "special" in the Ralph Wiggum sense of the word.  I bring this up because Ohio State has good return units (6th in the nation in kickoff returns; 13th in the nation in punt returns), so if there's a time when special teams play is going to cost us, this very well might be the week.

Prediction
Interesting that a 6-0 team hosting a 3-3 team on a two-game losing streak is only a four-point favorite.  Some of that is probably due to the reputations of the teams, some because Ohio State gets to play at full-strength for the first time all year, and some because of the realization that the Buckeyes have lost to two very good Big Ten teams the past two weeks.  I don't see the Buckeyes putting up a lot of points on our defense, and while I think the Illini will struggle to score on the Buckeyes, the offense will be able to do just enough to help end the 20-year home hex against the Buckeyes.  Lucky number seven, here we come!

Illini 23
Chestnuts 16