Illini vs. Minnesota Preview: Please Make It Stop

Congratulations, Ron Zook - after a fantastic start to the 2011 season, your team's five game losing streak has completely crushed my spirit.  Of course, I will be rooting for the Illini to beat the Golden Gophers on Saturday, but for me this game will have the same feel as the Illini basketball team's NIT game against Stony Brook in 2010.  If we win, I probably won't be excited as much as relieved that we didn't suffer a humiliating loss.

Fortunately, even though the Illini went from Columbus Day to Thanksgiving without winning a game, we still have a better team than Minnesota.  If the Illini defense could hold Wisconsin's powerful offense in check, they should be able to stop the Golden Gophers' offense.  I think we'll get just enough production from our offense and for a change we won't shoot ourselves in the foot on special teams.  It will add up to a win and a little momentum going into whatever crappy bowl game we get invited to.  Yippee.  But more importantly, it means that the regular season will be over,  so we'll be that much closer to getting an answer from Mike Thomas on whether he wants Zook to be a part of the future of the football program.  And that answer should be something to get excited about.

Predictions
Illinois 24
Minnesota 10
Ron Zook will be fired after the game and will not coach our bowl game

Illini vs. Wisconsin Preview: Ron Zook's Last Stand?

 

But does Mike Thomas agree?

One of the most painful outcomes for Illinois football in recent years came in the 2009 season finale against Fresno State.  Nearly two years later, it's still difficult to believe that our Senior Day was ruined on a last-second, tipped-pass-for-a-two-point-conversion reception by a Bulldogs offensive lineman.  That loss capped off a 3-9 season for the Illini (Ron Zook's second straight losing season), and it seemed all but certain that we would never see Zook on the Illinois sideline at Memorial Stadium again.  But thanks to the generosity, insanity, and/or stupidity of then-AD Ron Guenther, Zook survived, and we've now seen him coach an additional 13 games at Memorial Stadium.  This Saturday's clash against #15/#17 Wisconsin will be his 14th since that Fresno State game.  But unless the Illini can score a victory over the Badgers, it's difficult to believe that current AD Mike Thomas will give Zook the opportunity to extend that number, no matter what Thomas is saying now.  By the way, I've heard that ESPN was planning to bring the blimp to Champaign for Saturday's broadcast, but in a cost-cutting move they've instead decided to get their aerial shots of the game by strapping cameras to the vultures circling over Zook's head.

Given that atmosphere, is there any hope for the Fighting Zookers on Saturday?

Illini vs. Penn State Preview: A Valley Doesn't Sound Like a Good Place to Stop a Slide

In the middle of the 1995 Big Ten season, the Illini suffered back-to-back disheartening home losses:  first to Michigan State (a 27-21 loss); and then to Northwestern (17-14).  The next game on the schedule was a road trip to Iowa City. I expected to see a blowout, and that's exactly what happened.  Only the Illini weren't the victims, they were the perpetrators - the good guys routed the Hawkeyes 26-7.  I know everyone's upset about the current state of the Illini football team (rightfully so), and in the wake of the current two-game losing streak Ron Zook's name is starting to appear on "hot seat" lists again.  But if a Lou Tepper-coached team could stop a two-game losing streak as a big underdog in a hostile environment, is it out of the question for a Zook-coached team to do the same thing when the Illini (6-2, 4-4) travel to Happy Valley on Saturday to face Penn State (7-1, 4-0)?

Illini vs. Purdue Preview: Cannon Fodder?

I guess we all knew it was going to end sometime.  And since the Illini aren't going to finish the season undefeated, now we'll find out whether last Saturday's loss to Ohio State was just a bump in the road, or...whatever the opposite of a bump in the road is...the beginning of a giant sinkhole, I guess.  This week, the Illini leave home for just the second time in 2011 as they make the short trip to West Lafayette to face the Purdue Boilermakers (3-3, 1-2).  And for the third straight week, the winner takes home a trophy.  At stake this week - the Purdue Cannon (not pictured, left, but I'd love to win a trophy that looked like that).  Last year, the Illini claimed the Cannon for the first time since 2002 with a 44-10 victory, but that was an injury-riddled Purdue team we knocked around in Champaign.  Will a healthy bunch of Boilermakers be able to turn the tables on the Illini this year?

Illinois vs. Ohio State Preview: Illibuck-ing the Trend?

Imagine how the Illini teams of recent years would have reacted to one of the following scenarios:

• The opposing team returns the opening kickoff for a touchdown.
• While holding a four-point lead, the Illini commit a turnover inside their own five yard line.
• Ron Zook makes one of his patented* boneheaded coaching decisions.

*Actually, I'm not sure if it's patented, but I'm pretty sure he at least has the application on file at the U.S. Patent & Trademark Office.

Now, imagine all three of those things happening in the first half of the same game - no way the Illini win, right?  But this year's version of the Illini was able to overcome all of those mistakes and coast to an easy 41-20 win over Indiana last week.  Granted, the Hoosiers are terrible, but there have been plenty of occasions during the past few seasons where mistakes have cost the Illini wins over terrible teams.  No, I think what we're seeing here is a genuinely good Illinois football team.  With six wins, the Illini are already bowl-eligible, and it's just the fifth time in the last 16 years that the Illini can say that they'll be playing an extra game at the end of the season.  If the Illini can beat Ohio State (3-3, 0-2) on Saturday in Champaign, it would mark just the seventh time in the last 25 years that the Illini have managed a seven-win season.  But that would mean beating the Buckeyes at home - a feat the Illini haven't accomplished in twenty years.  Can the Illini pull it off and capture the Illibuck trophy for the first time since 2007?

Illini vs. Indiana Preview - We're Leaving Home

Take away the names on the jerseys. If you told most college football fans that a 5-0, top-20 team had a game on Saturday against a team that had lost all four of its games against FBS competition so far this year (including losses to juggernauts Ball State and North Texas), how many would pick against the 5-0 team? Right - no one would; everyone would pick them to win big. But when that 5-0 team is #16 (or #19) ranked Illinois, a team that has left its supporters feeling disappointed so many times over the years, it's somewhat understandable why some people (including people who write for this blog) might feel a little nervous about the Illini's prospects against Indiana on Saturday. While Illini football fans have grown accustomed to nebulous feelings of impending doom, there are actual reasons to feel nervous:

• The trip to the fake Memorial Stadium in Bloomington will mark the first time the Illini have traveled away from Champaign this season, so we don't know how the Illini will react when faced with a "hostile" crowd (hostile being a relative term in this case, since a lot of Indiana fans probably aren't even aware that they have a football team).  
• It's true that the Hoosiers are 1-4 so far this year (the win came against South Carolina State, an FCS school with a losing record).  However, their four losses have been by a combined 19 points.  On the other hand, the Illini have won their last three games by a total of nine points. In other words, the Hoosiers might not be as bad as their record indicates, and the Illini might not be as good as their record indicates. 
• While most of his predecessors have been rather anonymous, first-year Hoosiers Head Coach Kevin Wilson hasn't taken long to show that he's a jackass, but he's a jackass who might have extra motivation to stick it to the Illini. 

So is there legitimate cause for concern regarding Saturday's game?  If the Hoosiers are to spring the upset on Saturday, here are some areas where they might make it happen:

Illinois vs. Northwestern Preview: This Time, We're Using Both End Zones!

When Illinois and Northwestern renew their rivalry for the 104th time on Saturday, a lot of things will be different compared to their last meeting.  For starters, this will be the first time since 1998 that the game doesn't fall on the final week of the Big Ten schedule, and with its 11:00 a.m. kickoff, this will be the first ever interdivisional Big Ten game under the new Legends/Leaders format.  As for the game itself, unlike at last year's matchup at Wrigley Field, the teams will be able to run plays in both directions.  But perhaps the biggest difference is that  Northwestern will have its quasi-Heisman Trophy candidate, Dan Persa, starting at quarterback on Saturday.  Will the Illini be able to repeat last year's 48-27 pounding of the Wildcats?  Or will the mere sight of Persa descending from the heavens in his golden chariot inspire the 'cats to a payback win?

Bears Packers Preview - This Time It Counts...A Lot Less Than Last Time

The NFL's longest-standing rivalry resumes this weekend, as the Bears prepare to host the Packers on Sunday.  Of course, the stakes will be a lot lower than they were the last time these two teams met at Soldier Field, and even a Bears win on Sunday wouldn't erase or make up for what happened last January (just like Illinois beating North Carolina in a 2005-06 regular season game didn't make up for what happened when the two teams met in the 2005 NCAA Championship Game).  But we can't change the past (yet - although I do have one of my best men working on it as we speak), so we'll have to hope for a better future - one that includes the Bears and Packers tied at 2-1 in the standings.  Can the Bears make that happen?  There are some encouraging signs:

Illinois vs. Western Michigan Preview: Is it a Trap?

The Illini are coming off of their biggest non-conference home win since...when?  Louisville in 2001?  Eventual National Champion Colorado in 1990?  Whatever benchmark you choose to compare it to, last Saturday's electrifying 17-14 win over Arizona State propelled the Illini into the top 25 for the first time since 2008.  Now, I don't want to be too much of a Debbie Downer here.  But while Illini fans are excited (and rightfully so) about the results of the Arizona State game itself, it doesn't mean that we should start talking about this as a "special season" just yet.  The offense disappeared for a large chunk of the game, and had it not been for a heroic effort by the defense (including a couple of fortuitous bounces that became turnovers) and a missed 32-yard Arizona State field goal, we might be hearing a different narrative this week.  But fate did smile on the Illini, who are 3-0 for the first time since 2001, and are looking to go to 4-0 for the first time since 1951 this Saturday against Western Michigan.  To put that in perspective, the last time the Illini had a 4-0 start, the Cubs were only six years removed from their last World Series game.

So now that the Illini have overcome one bugaboo (the inability to win a closely played big game on a national stage), they'll have to overcome another one against the Broncos on Saturday:  the let-down game.  During the Ron Zook era, the Illini have displayed a particularly aggravating habit of following a big, emotionally charged win with a flat performance against a lesser opponent:  after ruining Michigan State's Homecoming in 2006, the Illini blew a late lead to lose their own Homecoming game against Indiana; in 2007, the Illini followed back-to-back home wins over Penn State and Wisconsin by laying an egg in Iowa City; and after an exhilarating last second win over Iowa in 2008, the Illini lost their next game at Ford Field against...ahem...Western Michigan.  Oh, and one more thing - this week's game is sandwiched in between a game against a ranked team and a game against Big Ten rival Northwestern, so it also has the makings of a dreaded "trap game".

Where does that leave us against this year's incarnation of Western Michigan?  The Broncos enter this game with a 2-1 record, with big wins over relatively similar competition (Central Michigan) and inferior competition (Nicholls), as well as a 34-10 road loss against Michigan, a team in the same league (literally and figuratively) as the Illini.  A look at the box score from that game at the Big House can give us a good idea of what to expect on Saturday.  In a game shortened by severe weather, the underlying numbers looked pretty even - 288 total yards for Michigan, 279 for Western Michigan.  However, while the Broncos were able to move the ball up and down the field, they committed three costly turnovers - two fumbles and one interception - and Michigan tallied two defensive touchdowns in the game.  That could be bad news for the Broncos, as the Illini defense has already forced eight turnovers this season, including three against Arizona State.  Also of note - in three quarters, Western Michigan allowed 190 yards on the ground against the Wolverines (on only 26 carries, for over seven yards per rushing play).  That could also bode well for the Illini's run-oriented offense.

Prediction
To make my call on this potential trap game, let's turn to the ultimate authority.  What do you think, Admiral Ackbar - is this a trap?

It's NOT a trap!
Illini 27
Broncos 17

Illinois vs. Arizona State; Bears vs. Saints: Buy One Football Game Preview, Get the Second One Free!

Both the Illini and the Bears dominated their opposition last weekend, but both teams will face tougher tests this weekend:  the Illini will be hosting a top-25 team (Arizona State), while the Bears journey to the Superdome, where the Saints of football play.  Rather than write out separate previews (and predictions), I'm just going to combine previews for both games into one huge honkin' post.

Illini/Arkansas State Preview - Football's Back!

The 2011 Fighting Illini are presenting quite a conundrum to our nation's college football experts.  Some see a team with a soft schedule and a dynamic, dual-threat sophomore QB and expect the Illini to top last year's 7-6 record.  Others see the loss of three key would-be-seniors to the NFL draft and expect the Illini to take a step backwards.  The good news is that we won't have to wait much longer to see who's right, as the 2011 season will kick off on Saturday when the Illini face the Arkansas State Red Wolves at the friendly confines of Memorial Stadium.  I'm excited, because I finally get a chance to write about a real game involving someone other than the craptacular 2011 Chicago Cubs.

'Cause it's a Big...House: Illinois-Michigan Preview and Prediction

With our obligatory Commodores reference out of the way...

It’s a battle for bowl eligibility in Ann Arbor on Saturday. At game’s end, either the 5-3 Illini or the 5-3 Michigan Wolverines will have earned a 6th win and the right to play a 13th game this year. Even though both teams have identical records, they are currently going in opposite directions. Imagine the two teams are in a shopping mall: Illinois, with back-to-back blowout wins, would be on the “up” escalator; while Michigan, with three straight losses, would be right next to the Illini, but on the adjacent “down” escalator. As a historical note, the Illini will also be striving for a third consecutive win over Michigan, which hasn’t happened since the Orange and Blue won four straight over the Maize and Blue from 1950 to 1953.
When Michigan has the Football
Two words – Denard Robinson.
OK, that’s not much of a write-up, so I’ll continue. Michigan’s quarterback is leading the Big Ten in total rushing yards and is second in the nation in rushing yards per game (160.88). When he’s not running wild on opposing defenses, he’s also found time to pass for 188.6 yards per game. While Michigan’s three-game losing streak has slowed the “Denard Robinson for Heisman Trophy” bandwagon, he’s still a very dangerous player, and the Illini defense hasn’t encountered a two-way threat of his caliber yet this year. Thanks largely to Robinson, the Michigan offense has been a force, averaging over 35 points per game, good for 19th in the nation. Aside from a 17-point effort against Michigan State, they’ve scored at least 28 points in every game this year. Vic Koenning’s defense enters Saturday ranked 12th in the nation in scoring defense (16.8 points per game), but their run of strong performances will be put to the test.
When Illinois has the Football

It’s a good thing for Michigan that their offense is so good, because their defense is awful. It’s true that the Wolverines have battled injuries this year, especially in the secondary, but even accounting for that they’ve been awful. Michigan is 10th in the Big Ten in scoring defense (30 points per game); last week, Penn State, which looked toothless in scoring only 13 points against the Illini, scored 41 points against Michigan. In other words, this is a bad time for the Wolverines to be facing a red-hot offense. The Illini are coming off their best offensive showing of the year in the win over Purdue, and Michigan may not be the only team in Saturday’s game that boasts a two-way threat at quarterback. Last week, Purdue focused on stopping Mikel Leshoure, and they did hold him to 23 yards rushing. However, Nathan Scheelhaase foiled that strategy by having the best game of his young career, totaling 118 yards rushing and 195 yards (and 4 TDs) passing. You can sense that Scheelhaase, the reigning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week, is growing more and more comfortable running the offense as the season progresses, and that Paul Petrino is showing increased confidence in Scheelhaase by opening up the offense for him. And if UMass was able to hang 37 points on the Wolverine defense in the Big House earlier this year, we might be looking at another banner game for the Illini offense this week.
Prediction
The Wolverines have been installed as 3-point favorites in Saturday’s game. I have a feeling that if the names on the jerseys were erased, the IlIini might be favored (it would certainly help perceptions if our last three-game win streak against Michigan hadn’t started during the Truman administration). A glance at the rest of Michigan’s schedule, with heavyweights Wisconsin and Ohio State looming, shows that Michigan really needs to win on Saturday. While a loss to the Illini wouldn’t be fatal to their bowl hopes – they could still get a 6th win against Purdue next week – a 6-6 record on the heels of last year’s season-ending collapse, coupled with more NCAA troubles, might lead to the end of Rich Rodriguez’s tenure as Michigan coach (on the plus side, with a 6-6 record it would be a short trip for Michigan fans to see their team play in the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl in Detroit). All this is a roundabout way of saying that I think the Wolverines are backed into a corner and will give us everything they have. But looking objectively at the two teams and how they’ve played recently, I also think that the Illini should be able to put enough points on the board to overcome whatever damage Michigan’s offense is able to inflict on the Illini D. Bowl eligibility, here we come!

Illinois 33
Michigan 24