Friday, September 16, 2011

Illinois vs. Arizona State; Bears vs. Saints: Buy One Football Game Preview, Get the Second One Free!

Both the Illini and the Bears dominated their opposition last weekend, but both teams will face tougher tests this weekend:  the Illini will be hosting a top-25 team (Arizona State), while the Bears journey to the Superdome, where the Saints of football play.  Rather than write out separate previews (and predictions), I'm just going to combine previews for both games into one huge honkin' post.



Illinois vs. Arizona State
Both the Illini and the Sun Devils enter Saturday night's game with 2-0 records, but not all "2 and 0s" are created equal.  While the Illini have been feasting on cupcakes this September, Arizona State dined on Tiger meat in Week 2.  The Sun Devils did something the Illini haven't done since 1994 - they beat Missouri - although they needed overtime (and a missed last-second Missouri FG) to make it happen after blowing a 14-point 4th quarter lead.  Arizona State was also helped by doing something the Illini haven't done since 1994 - playing the Tigers on their home field, instead of at a "neutral" site.

The Sun Devils' offense, led by QB Brock Osweiler, is pass-heavy:  they finished 15th in the nation in passing yards per game last year (mostly with now-departed QB Steven Threet running the show), and after two games this year they rank 14th in the nation in that same category, so the Illini secondary will be tested on Saturday.  Illinois may have trouble running the ball on Arizona State's defense, which is led by Butkus Award candidate/thug Vontaze Burfict. Last year, the Sun Devils finished 17th in the nation in rushing yards allowed per game.  Nathan Scheelhaase will have to prove that he can move the ball through the air to help open up the Illini's strong ground game.

Oddsmakers initially installed Arizona State as slight favorites, but now the Illini are slight favorites, which means that lots of bettors must think that the Illini are going to win the game.  After a tall glass of Orange Kool-Aid, count me in that group too.  Buoyed by the energy of the home crowd, a late Illini TD gives us our first 3-0 start since 2001.

Prediction:  Illini 35, Arizona State 31

Bears vs. Saints
Interesting timing - on the same weekend when the Illini play the (Sun) Devils, the Bears face the Saints.  The Bears played a great all-around game against Atlanta last Sunday, while the Saints played half of a great game against the Packers in their opener.  Putting up 34 points on the Packers' D is very impressive, but allowing 42 points (even against an offense as potent as the Packers' offense) is not.  What's even less impressive is the Saints' D in their second-to-last game that counted, when they allowed 41 points to a pathetic Seattle team in the playoffs (Marshawn Lynch may still be shedding Saints' tacklers).  So expect a relatively high-scoring game on Sunday.  The Bears have beaten the Saints four straight times, including the 2006 NFC Championship Game, but none of those games took place in the Superdome.  The Saints can't afford a home loss that would drop them to 0-2, and the home-field advantage will carry New Orleans to a close win.

Prediction
Saints 31
Bears 27

Bonus Prediction - Absolutely Free!
Rex Grossman had a great game last week, throwing for over 300 yards and two TDs in Washington's win over the Giants.  This can only mean one thing:  since the Redskins saw "Good Rex" in their opener, "Bad Rex" will show up for their game this week against Arizona.


Cardinals 24
Redskins 16

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