Illinois vs. Western Michigan Preview: Is it a Trap?

The Illini are coming off of their biggest non-conference home win since...when?  Louisville in 2001?  Eventual National Champion Colorado in 1990?  Whatever benchmark you choose to compare it to, last Saturday's electrifying 17-14 win over Arizona State propelled the Illini into the top 25 for the first time since 2008.  Now, I don't want to be too much of a Debbie Downer here.  But while Illini fans are excited (and rightfully so) about the results of the Arizona State game itself, it doesn't mean that we should start talking about this as a "special season" just yet.  The offense disappeared for a large chunk of the game, and had it not been for a heroic effort by the defense (including a couple of fortuitous bounces that became turnovers) and a missed 32-yard Arizona State field goal, we might be hearing a different narrative this week.  But fate did smile on the Illini, who are 3-0 for the first time since 2001, and are looking to go to 4-0 for the first time since 1951 this Saturday against Western Michigan.  To put that in perspective, the last time the Illini had a 4-0 start, the Cubs were only six years removed from their last World Series game.

So now that the Illini have overcome one bugaboo (the inability to win a closely played big game on a national stage), they'll have to overcome another one against the Broncos on Saturday:  the let-down game.  During the Ron Zook era, the Illini have displayed a particularly aggravating habit of following a big, emotionally charged win with a flat performance against a lesser opponent:  after ruining Michigan State's Homecoming in 2006, the Illini blew a late lead to lose their own Homecoming game against Indiana; in 2007, the Illini followed back-to-back home wins over Penn State and Wisconsin by laying an egg in Iowa City; and after an exhilarating last second win over Iowa in 2008, the Illini lost their next game at Ford Field against...ahem...Western Michigan.  Oh, and one more thing - this week's game is sandwiched in between a game against a ranked team and a game against Big Ten rival Northwestern, so it also has the makings of a dreaded "trap game".

Where does that leave us against this year's incarnation of Western Michigan?  The Broncos enter this game with a 2-1 record, with big wins over relatively similar competition (Central Michigan) and inferior competition (Nicholls), as well as a 34-10 road loss against Michigan, a team in the same league (literally and figuratively) as the Illini.  A look at the box score from that game at the Big House can give us a good idea of what to expect on Saturday.  In a game shortened by severe weather, the underlying numbers looked pretty even - 288 total yards for Michigan, 279 for Western Michigan.  However, while the Broncos were able to move the ball up and down the field, they committed three costly turnovers - two fumbles and one interception - and Michigan tallied two defensive touchdowns in the game.  That could be bad news for the Broncos, as the Illini defense has already forced eight turnovers this season, including three against Arizona State.  Also of note - in three quarters, Western Michigan allowed 190 yards on the ground against the Wolverines (on only 26 carries, for over seven yards per rushing play).  That could also bode well for the Illini's run-oriented offense.

Prediction
To make my call on this potential trap game, let's turn to the ultimate authority.  What do you think, Admiral Ackbar - is this a trap?

It's NOT a trap!
Illini 27
Broncos 17