When Illinois and Northwestern renew their rivalry for the 104th time on Saturday, a lot of things will be different compared to their last meeting. For starters, this will be the first time since 1998 that the game doesn't fall on the final week of the Big Ten schedule, and with its 11:00 a.m. kickoff, this will be the first ever interdivisional Big Ten game under the new Legends/Leaders format. As for the game itself, unlike at last year's matchup at Wrigley Field, the teams will be able to run plays in both directions. But perhaps the biggest difference is that Northwestern will have its quasi-Heisman Trophy candidate, Dan Persa, starting at quarterback on Saturday. Will the Illini be able to repeat last year's 48-27 pounding of the Wildcats? Or will the mere sight of Persa descending from the heavens in his golden chariot inspire the 'cats to a payback win?
When Northwestern has the football
OK, OK - Persa was a very good QB last year. He led Northwestern to a 7-3 record as a starter, set a Big Ten record with a 73.5% completion rate, had a 15 to 4 touchdown to interception ratio, and showed a flair for making big plays in the clutch, like his season-ending, game-winning touchdown pass against Iowa. Unfortunately for the Wildcats, that play against Iowa only ended his season (with a ruptured Achilles tendon). Northwestern still had to play three more games without him, and they lost all three. Saturday's game will be his first action of the 2011 season, and it's unclear at this point how much the injury and the long absence will affect his timing and his mobility - both of which are important aspects of Northwestern's spread offense. Speaking of the spread offense, this will be the fourth time in four games against FBS opposition that the Illini defense will have to defend against a spread offense. Their efforts have run the gamut from embarrassing (e.g. - the first half against Western Michigan) to outstanding (e.g. - stopping Arizona State, and the second half against Western Michigan), and we'll need to see more of the latter on Saturday.
When Illinois has the football
In last year's game, the Illini steamrolled Northwestern's defense to the tune of 519 yards rushing. True, 330 of those yards belonged to the now-departed Mikel Leshoure, but in their first four games this year the Illini have continued to show a strong rushing attack, averaging over 240 yards per game on the ground. This bodes well against a Northwestern defense which comes into the game allowing over 200 rushing yards per game (104th in the NCAA this season). Northwestern's game against Army two weeks ago is telling. The Cadets rank last in the nation in passing yards per game (and have finished last in the nation in that category in each of the past three years), but the 'cats were unable to stop Army's triple option offense, allowing 381 yards rushing. Illinois had success on a couple of option plays last week (including a Donovonn Young touchdown run), and the Illini would be wise to run more option sets this week. Of course, the Illini have a much more capable passing game than the Cadets do should the Wildcats decide to stack the box to limit the effectiveness of the Illini running game.
Special Teams
Just a few quick notes about special teams: one good, one bad, and one ugly. The good: Illini kicker Derek Dimke has made all six of his field goal attempts this year, and has made 35 of the 40 kicks he has attempted in his career. In contrast, Northwestern's kicker (Jeff Budzien) has made only one of his three field goal attempts so far this year. Superior field goal kicking was a big factor in the Illini's narrow victories over Arizona State and Western Michigan, and if this one is close Dimke will again provide a huge advantage for the Illini. The bad: the Illini have done a poor job covering kickoff returns this year (10th in the Big Ten, after finishing 9th a year ago), and Northwestern does a good job returning kickoffs (28.9 yards per return, good for 3rd in the Big Ten and 8th in the nation). We'll have to hope that we aren't in a position where a kickoff return could make the difference in the game, although I suppose it would be nice if Northwestern had multiple opportunities to practice their kickoff returns on Saturday. Oh, and the ugly: please, no more rugby punts. Ever.
Prediction
Northwestern has won 10 of the last 18 meetings between the two teams. But if you look back at those games, you'll see that there haven't been many upsets. When the Wildcats have been the better team (e.g. - the mid 90's, the middle part of this decade), they've won, and when the Illini have been the better team (e.g. - 1999, 2001, 2007, last year), they've won. Going by that simple formula, I'd say that the Illini look to be the better team, and I see them repeating last year's method for success - running on the Northwestern's defense like a red sock in a load of white laundry. The Land of Lincoln Trophy will stay in Champaign.
Illinois's Big Ten Team 33
Evanston's Big Ten Team 21
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