Bears Packers Preview - This Time It Counts...A Lot Less Than Last Time

The NFL's longest-standing rivalry resumes this weekend, as the Bears prepare to host the Packers on Sunday.  Of course, the stakes will be a lot lower than they were the last time these two teams met at Soldier Field, and even a Bears win on Sunday wouldn't erase or make up for what happened last January (just like Illinois beating North Carolina in a 2005-06 regular season game didn't make up for what happened when the two teams met in the 2005 NCAA Championship Game).  But we can't change the past (yet - although I do have one of my best men working on it as we speak), so we'll have to hope for a better future - one that includes the Bears and Packers tied at 2-1 in the standings.  Can the Bears make that happen?  There are some encouraging signs:

1. Led by Aaron Rodgers, who is arguably the best player in the NFL right now, the Packers have a potent offense.  Yet they've struggled to put points on the board against the Bears:  in 2009, the Packers averaged nearly 29 points per game, but only managed 21 points in each of their meetings against the Bears; in 2010, the Packers averaged 24 points per game, but their offense could only generate 17, 10, and 14 points in their three tries against the Bears' defense.  Obviously, if that trend continues, the Bears will have a chance to win, especially considering...
2. The Packers' usually rugged defense has been awfully generous so far this year.  Yes, I know it's a small sample size, but the Packers have allowed 57 points in their first two games.   While they've been tough against the run (76 yards per game allowed), they've been especially vulnerable against the pass - both Drew Brees and Cam Newton have thrown for over 400 yards against a Packers' defense that will now be missing a key starter (safety Nick Collins) on Sunday.  If the Bears can find a way to protect Jay Cutler - and that's a big if, since with Frank Omiyale subbing for the injured Gabe Carimi, this will be essentially the same offensive line that got Cutler knocked out of the NFC Championship game - and if Mike Martz remembers that he can have Cutler hand the ball to Matt Forte occasionally, maybe the Bears can scrounge up enough points to win.  

Unfortunately, there's a key trend that I didn't mention in paragraph #2 - while the Bears' defense has held the Packers' offense in check over the last two years, the Packers' defense has been even tougher on the Bears' offense.  Points by the Bears offense in the last five games:  13, 14, 13, 3, and 14, so all of the great work by the Bears' defense has resulted in only one victory.  And the Bears needed a Devin Hester punt return TD and 152 yards worth of Green Bay penalties to help them pull out a last-second 20-17 win in that one.  I see Sunday's script following the same basic pattern as the other four meetings of the 2009 and 2010 seasons:  close game, but the Packers get the win.  I was one point off from predicting the exact final score of the NFC Championship game, so let's go back to the well and use that same score again this week.  Sorry, fellow Bears fans - but at least this one won't hurt as much as it did in January, right?

Prediction
Packers 21
Bears 13