Fire Ron Zook? Not So Fast.

Three weeks ago, the Illini were sitting at 6-0 - the best start for the team in sixty years - and it looked like we were on our way to a history-making football season.  And we still might be seeing history in the making, but it wouldn't be the kind we were hoping for.  I did a little bit of research on the eight seasons in which FBS teams have been allowed to play 12 regular season games, and it looks as if no college football team has ever had both a six-game winning streak and a six-game losing streak in the same season.  But after last Saturday's heartbreaking, last-minute loss to Penn State left the Illini with a three-game losing streak, the Illini need to win one of their remaining three games - at home against #13 Michigan or #20 Wisconsin, or on the road against Minnesota (which beat Iowa in Minneapolis last Saturday) - to avoid becoming first team to claim that dubious distinction.

As a result of the losing streak, the "Fire Ron Zook" bandwagon is gaining momentum as the Illini head into their bye week.  If the Illini do finish the regular season with a 6-6 (or 7-5) record and a berth in, say, the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl after their great start, it would certainly give Mike Thomas a reason to fire Zook at season's end.  But should Thomas be thinking about changing coaches?  My answer - no, he shouldn't.  That's right, I'm about to try to defend Ron Zook.

Purdue 21, Illinois 14: We Lost to a Team that Lost to Rice

Questions raised during and immediately after the Illini's 21-14 loss to Purdue:

• Did the team not know this was an 11:00 (CDT) start?
• What happened to that punt return "breakthrough" Ron Zook talked about this week?  Did we have a single positive yardage punt return play in the game?
• We were down 21 points in the first half, so why did we wait until the end of the fourth quarter to run anything resembling a hurry-up offense?
• Spiking the ball with one second left in the first half - really?
• Of course, we shouldn't be surprised that our team doesn't understand time management when our coach doesn't know how to manage the clock either, should we?
• How long will it be before we return to the top 25?  And will Zook still be the coach when it happens?
• If we just got pantsed by a team that couldn't beat Rice and barely beat Middle Tennessee, is there any way for us to beat Penn State, Michigan, or Wisconsin...or Minnesota?

Illini, Tigers, and Bears, Oh My! The Almost Lost Weekend

Congratulations to my wife's grandmother, who turned 100 years old on Friday.  To celebrate, we drove up to Wisconsin on Saturday and spent the day with her, which left me unable to watch the Illini's 17-7 loss to Ohio State.   If anyone could figure out a way to lose a game in which the opponent completed only one pass in the entire game...well, it would have to be a team I root for, wouldn't it?  The Illini lost because the Buckeyes converted two turnovers into touchdowns, but the game wasn't sealed until a classic Ron Zook blunder in the final minutes.  With just over a minute left, the Illini had the ball and two time outs left, but faced 4th and 2 at the Ohio State 17 yard line.  But instead of kicking the field goal, the Illini went for the first down and failed, after which the Buckeyes ran out the clock.  Since you needed to score twice to win, why not kick the field goal there and leave as much time as possible to get the touchdown if you can recover the onside kick?  In the same situation last year, Northern Illinois took the field goal and then tried the onside kick (which the Illini recovered) even though the Huskies faced a longer kick than Derek Dimke would have attempted on Saturday, but I guess Ron Zook wasn't paying attention that day.  I only mention it because Lovie Smith made the exact same blunder at the end of last Monday's game against the Lions, and it would be nice if one of the football teams I root for had a coach who understood clock management.

Since I was on the road on Saturday night driving back to Chicago, I also missed Game 6 of the ALCS.  Apparently, so did the Detroit Tigers - they lost to the Texas Rangers 15-5, allowing the Rangers to repeat as American League champions.  And to be honest, I'm a little pissed at the Tigers right now, because they were the last team that could have prevented a nightmare World Series scenario.  With the Tigers out of the picture, this year's World Series winner will either be a hated rival, or a former loser franchise from Texas getting their first championship before I see the Cubs get one.  Now, where have I seen that before?  Oh, right.

But thanks to the Bears' performance on Sunday night, my sports weekend wasn't a complete disaster.  After Monday night's miserable performance, a home game against the hapless Minnesota Vikings (a/k/a "The Houston Astros of the NFC North") was just what the Bears needed. Too bad the Bears can't play the Vikings every week - the 39-10 win brought the Bears back to .500, and now I realize I may have been a little harsh in my assessment of the rest of the Bears season last week.  Other than the game at Green Bay, and maybe the game at Philadelphia, there's not a game on the remainder of the schedule that looks like a sure loss.  And with the Lions finally looking mortal Sunday, and with several other NFC contenders (Atlanta, Philadelphia) looking less than imposing so far this year, maybe the playoffs aren't such a reach for the Bears.  Of course, if the Bears couldn't get past the Packers to reach the Super Bowl last year, it's not like they have a shot to do it this year.  But I'm looking at it this way:  Lovie Smith's contract runs through 2013, so no matter how bad the Bears get this year, we're stuck with him through at least 2012, because there's no way in hell the McCaskeys fire a coach with two years remaining on his contract, right?   So since there's no reason to hope the Bears lose this year so they get rid of Smith faster (because that won't happen), we might as well hope for the best, and even a one-and-done #6 seed appearance in the playoffs would be worth it.  And don't worry, Smith-haters - with most of the Bears' star players on the wrong side of 30, and without enough quality young players in the pipeline to replace them, the end will come soon enough.

Happy Birthday to Me!

One year ago today, I came up with a bold, innovative idea that promised to revolutionize the way we viewed Internet sports coverage.  But instead of pursuing that idea, I started this blog. When I first put fingers to keyboard, I had no idea my favorite teams would provide so much material.  So on the occasion of the first birthday of "The Frustrated Fan", let's take a look at some of the highlights from my first year of blogging:

• The Cubs made a nearly seamless transition from a hopeless, crappy 2010 season to a hopeless, crappy 2011 season.
• The Bears surprisingly won the NFC Central and hosted the NFC Championship Game (that's good)...which they lost to the Packers, who went on to win the Super Bowl (that's bad).
• With an exciting freshman QB at the helm, the Illini football team overcame the frequently idiotic coaching of Ron Zook and won their first bowl game of the new millennium.
• Bruce Weber finally won an NCAA tournament game at Illinois without players recruited by Bill Self, then lost in the next round of the tournament to a team full of players recruited by Bill Self.
• And (perhaps) best of all, Ron Guenther's reign as Illinois Athletic Director came to a peaceful end.

So many memories - and so many questions still to be answered in the upcoming year:

• Which veterans will the Cubs dump at the trade deadline?  With over $40 million in payroll coming off the books in 2012, whom will the Cubs bring in to upgrade next year's roster?  And will Jim Hendry be the GM doing that off-season upgrading?
• Will the NFL lockout end in time for the season to begin as scheduled?  And wouldn't a cancelled NFL season actually be better than the alternative - a season in which the Packers stand a good chance to repeat as Super Bowl champions?
• Can Zook build on last season's success after losing his best offensive player and two best defensive players to the NFL draft?  If not, how much longer will the new AD (whoever (s)he is) keep him around?
• Shouldn't a basketball team which possesses three consecutive highly-ranked recruiting classes and plays a relatively soft non-conference schedule and in a weak Big Ten be able to comfortably make the NCAA tournament?  And if Weber's Illini spend another Selection Sunday on the bubble (or worse), how much longer will the new AD (whoever (s)he is) keep him around?

Stick around to get the answers to these (and many more) questions.  It's sure to be a better "Year Two" than the Ricketts family is having!

It's not a Dream, Illini Fans - Ron Guenther Retires!

Great days in Illini sports history:

October 29, 1983 - Illinois beats Michigan to all but lock up a trip to the Rose Bowl.

March 26, 2005 - Illinois overcomes 15-point deficit to Arizona to advance to the Final Four

May 16, 2011 - Ron Guenther announces he is retiring from his post as Athletic Director after 19 years on the job.

After making brief comments, Bruce Weber and Ron Zook were last seen purchasing large quantities of Pepto Bismol at the thought of actually being held responsible for on-field/on-court results. As for Illini fans, who suffered through Guenther's seemingly endless tolerance for mediocrity, the response was nearly universal:

Where Do I Get One of These Jobs?

After two straight losing seasons, Ron Zook finished .500 in 2010 (plus a bowl win). For that, he got himself a $250,000 raise for next year.

After three straight non-playoff seasons, Lovie Smith won a division title and then beat the worst playoff team ever. For that, he received a two-year contract extension (through the 2013 season).

So apparently your best bet for job security in this troubled economy is to become the football coach of a team I root for.

We're Number One (in the State)!

First Southern Illinois, then Northern Illinois, and now the NUrds ("Chicago's Big Ten Team", my a$$). If nothing else, the Illini can lay claim to being the best team in the state of Illinois this year, and as a result we truly deserve the Land of Lincoln Trophy. Just don't let Zook get another contract extension based on it.

And after two losing seasons, it's going to feel good to do this again...

Illinois Loses at Home to a Team that Lost to South Dakota

Wow, did this one have Ron Zook's fingerprints all over it:

Stupid penalties? Check.

Stupid/gutless play-calling? Check.

Poor use of timeouts? Check.

Letting the worst offense in the Big Ten go 80 yards into the wind in two minutes for the game-winning touchdown? Well, that's a new one, I guess.

Another winnable home game pi$$ed away? Check.

Yet another season without a bowl game? Check, and mate.

A Football-Free Weekend

No Illini game Saturday? No Bears game Sunday? There go all of my excuses to not mow the lawn. In any case, the red hot Illini (for whom two straight wins equals "red hot") have a bye week, which offers a great opportunity to assess the team's prospects for the rest of the season and for a bowl bid. Yes, I said a bowl bid. The Illini have two wins already, and looking at the schedule, I see three very winnable home games against Indiana, Purdue, and Minnesota (disclaimer - I understand that "winnable" doesn't equal "the Illini will win", as Zook-era teams have proven over and over).

But for argument's sake, let's give the Illini these three wins, which would make five and leave them needing one more win to become bowl-eligible. And yes, I've heard about the proposal to allow 5-win teams into bowl games this year, but I wouldn't count on that, and I don't like it anyway. Call me a traditionalist, but a team with more losses than wins shouldn't be in a bowl game. A team with an equal number of wins and losses - now that's a different story.

So with that backdrop, let's take a look at the remaining games on the schedule and see which (if any) would be a potential source of a sixth Illini win:

• Oct. 2 vs. Ohio State. Ummm...uhhh....Next!
• Oct. 9 at Penn State. Looking for trends with the Nittany Lions, I see that they've won every time they've hosted a non-Big Ten team from Ohio, but lost every time they've played on the road against teams ranked #1 in the country. Unfortunately, the Illini are probably closer in quality to the former group than the latter group, and this one's in Happy Valley.
• Oct. 16 at Michigan State. Sparty has looked good so far this year, what with their chicanery and all. But look at their Big 10 schedule: games against Wisconsin and at Michigan and games at Northwestern and against Iowa sandwiched around their home game against the Illini. Could this be a classic trap game for Sparty? A Zook-era team has gone to East Lansing with a freshman QB and left with a win before.
• Nov. 6 at Michigan. On the plus side, the Illini have beaten the maize-and-blue two straight times, and UMass did hang 37 points on the Wolverines in Ann Arbor. On the minus side, Michigan has a Heisman Trophy-caliber QB, and I think the universe would implode if Michigan lost three in a row to the Illini.
• Nov. 20 vs. Northwestern @ Wrigley Field. The Illini have lost 6 of their last 7 against the 'Cats, who are sort of the anti-Illini. Northwestern is well-coached and disciplined, with players who fit their system, which has continuity because they aren't constantly shuffling coordinators in and out every year. Northwestern is the designated home team for this one, so our best hope might be that Wrigley Field's other home team's bad luck rubs off on them.
• Dec. 3 at Fresno St. Wow - a game in California in December? We are going to a bowl game! Oh, wait, this is a road game on the regular season schedule - part of our Athletic Director's insane plan to ridiculously over-schedule a rebuilding program. Anyway, except for the ending, last year's game was a great one that could have gone either way. Maybe if the Illini have something to play for this year (a bowl bid), the rematch will go our way.

Well, there you have it. I don't see any obvious wins here, although some seem more winnable than others. If I had to rank them from best chance for a win to worst chance, I'd say Fresno St., Northwestern, Michigan St. Michigan, Penn St. and Ohio St. So while a sixth win is possible, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for it, especially because I don't think I can hold my breath until December. For now, I'll just enjoy knowing that after this Saturday, the Illini will have gone three straight weeks without a loss.

At Least They Beat the Spread

Not much needs to be said about the specifics of Saturday's 23-13 Illini loss. In summary - Illinois executes well in the first half, Missouri adjusts in the second half, forcing the freshman QB to make big plays to win, which he was unable to do. However, the game was competitive throughout, which is more than I (and the oddsmakers) expected. It's difficult for me to find fault with the players or coaches for their effort. Against a team like Youngstown State (Penn State's opener), Eastern Illinois (Iowa's opener), Middle Tennessee St. (Minnesota's opener), or Towson (Indiana's opener), it would have been enough for a victory. But instead, Ron Guenther's insistence that his rebuilding team needed to open against the superior Tigers on a "neutral" field, year after year, has left the team 0-1 for the fourth straight year.

The best thing about Saturday's game is that it means this series has come to an end. Good news is on the horizon for the Illini's next head coach, however - after 18 years Guenther has finally figured out the knack of scheduling. Check out the 2011 schedule, which features eight home games, including five straight to start the year, with the first two against Arkansas St. and South Dakota St. That schedule will certainly help the new regime get off to a quick start next year and maybe even (gasp) make it to a bowl game, which is (almost) enough to make you feel sorry for Ron Zook, who's probably wondering why he never got to have such an advantageous schedule.

A College Football Post!

If anyone is reading this blog, they'll notice that I haven't said much about college football yet. It's hard to believe there's not much buzz around the Illini football program and the soon-to-be unemployed Ron Zook with only a month to go before the season kicks off, but that's what happens when a team has only two winning seasons in a decade (and three in the last 15 years), I guess.

Well, college football fans, today's your lucky day, because I came across this article, entitled "Ron Zook Looks to Stimulate Fan Support." Talk about a misleading headline - there was nothing in the article saying that Zook was about to resign! But after all the blather about staying positive and working harder came this quote, from the author:

All teams need fan support to play their best. If Illini fans want their team to be successful, they will forget last year and focus on helping the team win this year.

Even if they think a change in the head coach is the only solution, they cannot rule out their own contribution to failure if they refuse to support the team. Illini players and coaches will give everything they have to the effort, so the fans need to do likewise to know without doubt they aren't part of the problem.

Yes, because that's the biggest problem with this team. It's not the players, or the coaches who recruited them, or the Athletic Director who hired the coaches who recruited the players. It's the fans who have endured the second-worst Big Ten football program of the last 15 years (only Indiana is worse, and I'm not even sure they have a football team) - yes, it's our fault that the team stinks (hmm, I think I may have heard that before).

Look, guys, I'm more than happy to forget last year (and most of the last decade, frankly) and give "everything I have" to help the Illini win in whatever way that I can - you know, support the team. But if it's a Saturday afternoon in October and Illinois falls behind 28-3 in the second quarter, I'm probably going to be doing something else besides supporting the team. My leaves aren't going to rake themselves, you know.