Illinois - Penn State II: The Reckoning

[Intoned in deep, movie preview guy voice] In a world turned upside-down, Penn State is rolling and the Illini are staggering. Now, as the Orange and Blue prepare to take up arms against the Nittany Lions on friendly turf, one question remains: can the Illini flip the script and save their season? The day of reckoning is at hand. [Loud orchestral note].

Illinois - Penn State II: The Reckoning. Opens Tuesday night, unless it's postponed by a blizzard. This game is not yet rated because we don't know how much swearing Illini fans do while watching the game until after it starts.

[Back to my not-so-impressive voice] A lot has changed in the 3 weeks since the first Illini-Penn State meeting. The Illini entered that game on a three-game winning streak, but have now lost four of five and are edging into bubbleville. On the other side of the equation, Penn State's conquests of the Illini, Michigan State, and Wisconsin have propelled them into NCAA tournament consideration. So there's quite a bit at stake for both teams when they meet on Tuesday night.

For the Illini, this was supposed to be part of a stretch of "should-win" games before entering the meatier second half of the Big Ten schedule. But with the Illini coughing up Thursday's game at Indiana, this game becomes even more crucial. With five road games left on the docket (including trips to top 25 opponents Purdue, Minnesota, and Ohio State), the Illini can ill afford to lose any of their remaining home games. Of greater concern, given the fragile mental composition of this team, is that a loss to Penn State on Tuesday could send them skidding out of control and out of the NCAA tournament picture completely.

As for the Nittany Lions - first, I guess we can stop calling the Illini's loss to them in January a bad loss, unless you think losing to a team that's ahead of you in the standings constitutes a bad loss. You read that right: Penn State (5-4) is now ahead of Illinois (4-4) in the Big Ten standings. Penn State has won 6 of the last 11 meetings between the teams, and with the Big Ten's second leading scorer (Illini-killer Talor Battle) on their side, they'll certainly enter Tuesday's game brimming with confidence - especially knowing that a sweep of a fellow mid-tier conference mate could go a long way toward putting themselves back into the NCAA tournament for the first time since the Nittany Lions roster was loaded with Crispin brothers.

Prediction: The 2010-11 Illini have made a habit of playing to the level of their competition, good or bad. Call me crazy, but I think this can work in the Illini's favor. Penn State has been playing well of late (four wins in their last six games, with the two losses being a three-point loss at Ohio State and a referee-screw-job special at Purdue), so if the pattern holds it's more likely that they'll bring out the best in the Illini on Tuesday. And unlike Ohio State, Penn State isn't good enough to win at the Assembly Hall if the Illini bring their "A" game. I'm thinking the Illini can win this one, but if they lose, look out below.

Final Score - Illini with more points than Penn State

Thank You, Chicago Bears

Now that we're almost one week removed from the NFC Championship Game, I think it's time for a thank-you note. No sarcasm, no snide comments toward the coaching staff and/or the front office (there'll be plenty of time for that later) - just a few words of thanks to my favorite pro football team.

I had ridiculously low expectations for the Bears this year, and even after their quick start I was only thinking they'd be a way to bridge the gap until Illini basketball started. But they kept overachieving right into a division title and within one game of the Super Bowl. Most importantly, their run into the postseason helped to distract me from Bruce Weber and his Bumbling Illini for an extra month.

So thank you, Chicago Bears, for a fun 2010 season, and let's hope for better things in 2011 (or whenever the lockout ends). And until then...

N-I-T!! N-I-T!!

Wow. Playing a team that just got blown out by Iowa and is missing two starters, and we still find a way to lose. And I just love watching other teams' fans rush the court on us. Great job guys! Great job Coach Weber!!

So will we have to travel for our first round NIT game, or can we start at home this time?

Illini Face Crucial Stretch

The Illini basketball team is about to embark on a crucial three-game stretch, which you already knew since you read the headline of this blog post. Why is it so crucial? The Illini are ranked in the top 25 and sitting at 4-3 in the Big 10, which looks OK for now, but they still have road games against Purdue, Minnesota, Michigan State, and Ohio State on the docket. There's a good chance the Illini will lose all four of those games, which would leave the team with ten losses (and an 11-7 conference record) even if they won every other game. One more loss in any of the other games - and a team that's capable of losing to UIC, which is still winless in the Horizon League, is capable of losing to any Big 10 opponent - could leave the team needing to win at least one game in the Big Ten Tournament to avoid another bubblicious Selection Sunday.

My point is that if the Illini want to go into the Big Ten Tournament with an NCAA tournament bid locked up, it would behoove them to win the next three games against Indiana (away), Penn State (home), and Northwestern (away). Let's start with Indiana, which will be without Verdell Jones and Maurice Creek against the Illini on Thursday. The Illini are good at playing to the level of their competition. Sometimes that's helpful, sometimes it's not. But it will be tough for the Illini to play down to Indiana's level (10-10 overall, 1-6 in the Big Ten) if the Hoosiers are missing two starters. For the first time since Kendall Gill, Steven Bardo, and Ervin Small roamed the hardwood (1988-1990), the Illini will win a third straight game in the fake Assembly Hall.

Prediction: Illini 70, Hoosiers 60

What do we want? More Lovie Smith! When do we want it? Soon!

I've been trying to let Sunday's game digest, but it's still sitting in my stomach like unrefrigerated cottage cheese. So you can imagine the elation I felt when I saw this story. Apparently, there are two things you can be sure of: (1) every time a bell rings, an angel gets its wings; and (2) every time the Bears lose a playoff game, Lovie Smith gets a contract extension.

Bottom line - if Jerry Angelo is true to his word, we can look forward to botched replay requests, wasted timeouts, and baffling personnel decisions (Todd Collins as your #2 QB? Really? Did you miss the four-interception game against Carolina, the worst team in the league? It was in all the blogs) for years to come!

Illini-Buckeyes Wrap-up

You'd think that since I picked Illinois to lose to Ohio State today, I wouldn't be too upset - they even came closer than I predicted. But when you factor in the eight point second half lead that got away, this loss represents a major missed opportunity.

So how come Ohio State loses last season's Player of the Year (Evan Turner) and comes back even better this year, while Illinois returns all five starters (and seven of their top nine scorers) from last season and adds three top 100 recruits (including a McDonald's All-American) but looks like they're headed for the NCAA tournament bubble again?

Bruce Weber - making Selection Sunday nerve-wracking since 2007.

Weekend Sports Extravaganzapaloozafest

We've got a big sports weekend cued up.

First, on Saturday, the Illini get a chance to do something they haven't done since the 2004-05 season - beat the #1 team in the country (Ohio State). And because the Buckeyes beat the top-ranked '04-05 Illini team, this would be a nice way (for the fans and for Bruce Weber, at least) to turn the tables. A Buckeyes fan might argue that we've already taken our revenge by beating their #1 ranked football team in 2007, and that the schools are even (and it's not like the Buckeyes will ever have a chance to defeat a #1 ranked Illinois football team). To that hypothetical fan, I'd say that I'd like to see some basketball-specific comeuppance tomorrow. Unfortunately, here are the scores of the last four OSU-Illini games in Champaign:

2007 - 62-44 L

2008 - 74-58 L

2009 - 67-49 W

2010 - 72-53 L

So the Buckeyes have really had our number of late, and Jared Sullinger is exactly the kind of player (highly skilled widebody) that we struggle to control. Even if we do somehow slow him down, Jon Diebler will kill us with a bunch of threes. Sorry, fellow Illini fans, I just don't see it happening. Prediction: Chestnuts 75, Illini 63

As for the other big weekend event - first, I'd like to point out that this is technically not the oldest NFL rivalry. That would be the Bears and Cardinals, who first played on November 28, 1920 (when the Cardinals were Chicago's team and the Bears were Decatur's team). But this is the NFL's "longest standing rivalry," with the teams having met every year (except the strike-shortened 1982 season) since 1921. There's not much I can add to the hype about the game, except to say that the last time one of my teams played a hated rival for a chance to play in the championship game was in the 1989 NCAA tournament. That was probably the worst sports fan experience I've ever had (even worse than the 1984 and 2003 Cubs) - knowing that the Illini were better than Michigan and would have crushed Seton Hall in the Finals, but having to see them lose and not get that chance.

I wish I could be more optimistic about Sunday's game, but even at home, against a team the Bears did hold in check in the two meetings this year, I just have a bad feeling that I'm going to have to live through another round of losing the big game to a team I can't stand. Maybe someday the Cubs will beat the Cardinals in the NLCS on their way to winning the World Series....OK, now that you're done laughing...Prediction: Packers 21, Bears 13.

Bonus Prediction: No way the Steelers lose twice at home to the Jets this year - Steelers 24, Jets 14.

Cubs Trade Gorzelanny to Nationals

With newly-acquired Matt Garza in the fold, it was clear that the Cubs were going to trade one of their established starters. So after Jim Hendry removed the blindfold and looked at the dartboard careful consideration, the Cubs decided to send Tom Gorzelanny packing Monday, shipping the lefty to the Nationals for three prospects, "none of whom is considered a top 10 prospect" (thanks for that buzzkill, MLB.com press release). I can think of several possible reasons for this trade:

1. Gorzelanny was arbitration eligible and was due for a big raise (from $800,000 last year to the $2 million range), and the Ricketts family couldn't find enough coins under the sofa cushions to afford him anymore;
2. He grew up as a White Sox fan in Evergreen Park and the Cubs found out he was bringing them down from the inside; or
3. The Cubs are only allowed to have one pitcher at a time with a "G" and a "Z" in his last name.

Gorzelanny's departure leaves the Cubs without an established left-handed starter, although with a career xFIP of 4.85, the only thing Gorzelanny has really established so far is that he's only a viable starter because of his left-handedness. It would have been nice if the Cubs could have at least picked up a high end minor leaguer in return, but apparently every time the Cubs trade a lefty starter, they are bound by law to receive only low-ceiling minor league players.

So in summary, this move does nothing to help the Cubs get in front of the Brewers, Reds, or Cardinals, but it shouldn't keep them from finishing in front of the Astros.

Fourth Place, here we come!

Playoff Preview - Bears vs. Seahawks

If you've found your way to this blog, then you probably know what's at stake for the Bears and Seahawks when they meet this Sunday at noon at the Spaceship. But let's take a moment to focus on what's at stake for me on Sunday. With the Illini basketball team bumbling around and the Cubs stuck in neutral, this may be my last realistic chance to see one of my teams win a championship for a while. So I'm hoping the Bears will consider my needs when they take the field, and now - on to the preview.

The Bears will win if...

They follow George Costanza's strategy and do the opposite of everything they did in their Week 6 loss to Seattle. This would include: giving Matt Forte more than 8 carries; successfully converting a third down at some point; and blocking Seattle's defensive backs when they blitz. It would also help matters if our big money defensive end would get his name called in a sentence that doesn't sound like "Russell Okung has completely taken Julius Peppers out of this game."

The Seahawks will win if...

You may have heard something about this game being Jay Cutler's first playoff appearance. Sometimes when he throws an early interception, it leads to others, and the Seahawks would be greatly helped if they are facing the turnover machine that the Redskins saw in Week 7. Also, if it's a close game that boils down to a battle of wits between the coaches, the Bears may be in trouble. Pete Carroll may be a slimebag - while at USC, he was the John Calipari of college football - but he's a good coach. Just getting this Seahawks team to the playoffs, even via a watered-down NFC West, is evidence of that. Lovie Smith, on the other hand, is noteworthy for his baffling use of timeouts and replay challenges. Let's hope the Bears play well enough to take this factor out of the equation.

Prediction

Two years ago, the Arizona Cardinals were the champions of a weak NFC West and the #4 seed in the NFC. Some experts called them the worst team ever to make the playoffs. After they won their Wild Card Weekend game, they advanced to face the #2 seed Carolina Panthers in Charlotte, where they were a double-digit underdog. But Jake Delhomme threw five picks, Kurt Warner and Larry Fitzgerald put on an offensive clinic, and the Cardinals advanced to the NFC Championship Game.

There are quite a few parallels between that game and this Sunday's game. For example, I could certainly see Cutler playing the part of Delhomme. But the 2010 Seahawks are truly the worst team to ever make the playoffs (the 2008 Cardinals outscored their opponents by one point on the season; this year's Seahawks were outscored by 97 points), Matt Hasselbeck isn't Warner, and Mike Williams isn't Fitzgerald (his performance against the Bears in Week 6 notwithstanding). As long as the Bears follow the formula that allowed them to win seven of their nine post-bye-week games (balanced offense, opportunistic defense, big returns on special teams to help win the field position battle), they should be able to dispose of the Seahawks. If not, it's going to be a long winter.

Bears 30

Seahawks 13

Familiar Faces Return to the Cubs

In 2010, Koyie Hill received 231 plate appearances, during which he posted a .214/.254/.298 line (good for an OPS+ of 44). You can't find that level of offensive production just anywhere - well, actually you probably could, even if you just picked some random guy stocking shelves at Target. You'd think a major league player who couldn't hit at all would at least be a good defensive player, right? Think again - Hill only threw out 18% of the baserunners who tried to steal against him, although to be fair he held onto the ball while allowing an opposing team's baserunner to score from third base only once all season.

So after a performance like that, you'd expect the Cubs to say goodbye to Hill, but not only did Jim Hendry offer him arbitration, he signed Hill to a contract that actually increases his salary from $700,000 to $850,000 (that's a raise of over 20%). It's not a lot of money, but it's hard to take the Ricketts family's cries of poverty seriously when they let their GM re-sign a sub-mediocre veteran instead of giving the backup catcher's job to a minimum salaried player (see Castillo, Welington, or Ramirez, Max, both of whom are already in the Cubs organization). A possible light at the end of the tunnel - before the 2009 season, Hendry signed the eminently replacement-level Paul Bako to a free agent contract, but released him during Spring Training. Perhaps history repeats itself here.

In better news, 2008 cult hero Reed Johnson signed a minor league contract with the Cubs and will be invited to Spring Training. The Cubs have a crowded outfield, with four players (Soriano, Byrd, Colvin, and Fukudome) already penciled in for 2011 (barring a trade), so Johnson will likely be competing with Fernando Perez (who came over in the Garza trade) for the 5th outfielder spot. Johnson brings with him a decent .748 career OPS (94 OPS+), a solid glove, and a penchant for making spectacular defensive plays (like this, and this - I hope Ryan Dempster bought him a couple of nice dinners for those catches). It's a good, low-cost, low-risk move, the kind of thing Hendry should be doing more often.

So in summary, it looks like Hendry went .500 on his signings today, which will be a better record than the Cubs end up with in 2011.

Another Illini Loss to Penn State? Ho-Hum.

Illinois is supposed to be a basketball school. Penn State hasn't made the NCAA tournament since 2001. And yet the Marshmallows Illini are 5-6 in their last 11 meetings with Penn State after tonight's 57-55 loss. I'm surprised their fans rushed the court at the end of the game - don't they expect to beat us by now?

As for the Illini, they've now lost to a team that's 0-5 in the Horizon League (UIC; the Flames haven't won since beating the Illini) AND to a team (Penn State) that lost at home to Maine. We can't blame this one on poor shooting either, since the Illini actually outshot Penn State (41.3% to 34.6% overall; the Illini were 7-16 on 3-pointers versus 7-24 for the Nittany Lions) and even made 10 of 11 free throws.

Bottom line - even after this loss, the Illini will probably still make the NCAA tournament, and will probably also make some mid-major school very happy when they see they're playing the Illini in the first round.

Cubs Set to Acquire Garza. I'm Set to Throw in the Towel for 2011, 2012, and Beyond.

Remember the glorious 2005-06 offseason? The Cubs were coming off a disappointing 79 win season and were looking for a CF upgrade - Corey Patterson, their primary CF in '05, had posted a "this is not a typo" .602 OPS (and a Koyie Hill-esque 54 OPS+). Jim Hendry's solution? Trade away three pitching prospects, including Ricky Nolasco, for Juan Pierre, who was in the last year of his contract. The acquisition of Pierre spurred the Cubs to a memorable season, as they came achingly close...to finishing ahead of the Pirates and out of last place. After 2006, Pierre left via free agency, while Nolasco has developed into a solid (and relatively inexpensive) starting pitcher, giving the Marlins 10.8 WAR (thanks, FanGraphs) over the last 4 seasons (for comparison's sake, Pierre has compiled 9 WAR since the beginning of the 2006 season).

Why am I rehashing this painful history? Well, it looks as if Jim Hendry hasn't learned from his past mistakes. Again, we have a Cubs team coming off a disappointing season with little hope of contending for a division title in the upcoming year. The solution this time? Trade three of our top 10 prospects, including the organization's minor league pitcher of the year Chris Archer and infielder Hak-Ju Lee, for Rays' starter Matt Garza. On the surface, Garza looks like a pretty good pitcher - in 2010 he won 15 games in the rugged AL East, with a respectable 3.91 ERA. But look a little deeper, and you'll see that he's nothing special:

2010 Randy Wells - 194 1/3 IP, 6.67 K/9, 2.92 BB/9, 4.09 xFIP, 3.3 WAR
2010 Matt Garza - 204 2/3 IP, 6.60 K/9, 2.77 BB/9, 4.51 xFIP, 1.8 WAR

Remember that WAR is context, park, and league neutral, so any gains that Garza might see from not having to face the powerful Yankees and Red Sox lineups as often will likely be offset by the Cubs mediocre defense and by Garza having to work in a less-pitcher-friendly environment (he's moving from the best pitcher's park in baseball in 2010 to one of the worst). In essence, Hendry is mortgaging the Cubs future for a starter who will provide a slight upgrade to the Cubs pitching staff. If the Cubs were anywhere close to being a contender in 2011 (or if this were a trade for a Zack Greinke/Cliff Lee type of pitcher), this might make sense, but Garza is basically another #3 starter, and the Cubs will probably be spending 2011 battling the Astros for 4th place. And by the time the Cubs are in position to be serious contenders again (2012, maybe?), Archer might be a better pitcher (and will be a much cheaper pitcher) than Garza. Holding on to Archer now would also mean that the Cubs could use him as a trading chip later if they are in contention and a bigger prize comes on the market (think 1984 Rick Sutcliffe or 2008 CC Sabathia).

On balance, I've been OK with the Cubs off-season moves so far (signing Pena and Wood), because Hendry hadn't yet done anything to handcuff the Cubs past 2011, leaving open the possibility of big changes next offseason when several big contracts (Fukudome, Silva, Grabow, Ramirez) expire. But this move demonstrates that even after all his years on the job, Hendry still has no idea how to build a winning team (if he needs a lesson, he should look to the team he just traded with). What's worse is that the Ricketts family is in penny-pinching mode, so we're probably stuck with Hendry until his contract expires (after the 2012 season), and until Hendry is gone the Cubs will continue to be the Pirates with a higher payroll.

Happy New Year, Bears Fans!

The Falcons won their game already today, so they get the top seed in the NFC. The Bears are now locked into the #2 seed and have nothing to play for.

Since the Buccaneers beat the Saints, the Packers need to win today or they are eliminated from the playoffs.

Put those two things together, and this one could get extremely ugly. Fortunately, the Bears will have an extra week to recover from the pounding.

Prediction: Packers 41, Bears 10.