Illinois - Penn State II: The Reckoning

[Intoned in deep, movie preview guy voice] In a world turned upside-down, Penn State is rolling and the Illini are staggering. Now, as the Orange and Blue prepare to take up arms against the Nittany Lions on friendly turf, one question remains: can the Illini flip the script and save their season? The day of reckoning is at hand. [Loud orchestral note].

Illinois - Penn State II: The Reckoning. Opens Tuesday night, unless it's postponed by a blizzard. This game is not yet rated because we don't know how much swearing Illini fans do while watching the game until after it starts.

[Back to my not-so-impressive voice] A lot has changed in the 3 weeks since the first Illini-Penn State meeting. The Illini entered that game on a three-game winning streak, but have now lost four of five and are edging into bubbleville. On the other side of the equation, Penn State's conquests of the Illini, Michigan State, and Wisconsin have propelled them into NCAA tournament consideration. So there's quite a bit at stake for both teams when they meet on Tuesday night.

For the Illini, this was supposed to be part of a stretch of "should-win" games before entering the meatier second half of the Big Ten schedule. But with the Illini coughing up Thursday's game at Indiana, this game becomes even more crucial. With five road games left on the docket (including trips to top 25 opponents Purdue, Minnesota, and Ohio State), the Illini can ill afford to lose any of their remaining home games. Of greater concern, given the fragile mental composition of this team, is that a loss to Penn State on Tuesday could send them skidding out of control and out of the NCAA tournament picture completely.

As for the Nittany Lions - first, I guess we can stop calling the Illini's loss to them in January a bad loss, unless you think losing to a team that's ahead of you in the standings constitutes a bad loss. You read that right: Penn State (5-4) is now ahead of Illinois (4-4) in the Big Ten standings. Penn State has won 6 of the last 11 meetings between the teams, and with the Big Ten's second leading scorer (Illini-killer Talor Battle) on their side, they'll certainly enter Tuesday's game brimming with confidence - especially knowing that a sweep of a fellow mid-tier conference mate could go a long way toward putting themselves back into the NCAA tournament for the first time since the Nittany Lions roster was loaded with Crispin brothers.

Prediction: The 2010-11 Illini have made a habit of playing to the level of their competition, good or bad. Call me crazy, but I think this can work in the Illini's favor. Penn State has been playing well of late (four wins in their last six games, with the two losses being a three-point loss at Ohio State and a referee-screw-job special at Purdue), so if the pattern holds it's more likely that they'll bring out the best in the Illini on Tuesday. And unlike Ohio State, Penn State isn't good enough to win at the Assembly Hall if the Illini bring their "A" game. I'm thinking the Illini can win this one, but if they lose, look out below.

Final Score - Illini with more points than Penn State