Illini vs. Penn State Preview: A Valley Doesn't Sound Like a Good Place to Stop a Slide

In the middle of the 1995 Big Ten season, the Illini suffered back-to-back disheartening home losses:  first to Michigan State (a 27-21 loss); and then to Northwestern (17-14).  The next game on the schedule was a road trip to Iowa City. I expected to see a blowout, and that's exactly what happened.  Only the Illini weren't the victims, they were the perpetrators - the good guys routed the Hawkeyes 26-7.  I know everyone's upset about the current state of the Illini football team (rightfully so), and in the wake of the current two-game losing streak Ron Zook's name is starting to appear on "hot seat" lists again.  But if a Lou Tepper-coached team could stop a two-game losing streak as a big underdog in a hostile environment, is it out of the question for a Zook-coached team to do the same thing when the Illini (6-2, 4-4) travel to Happy Valley on Saturday to face Penn State (7-1, 4-0)?

Illinois - Penn State II: The Reckoning

[Intoned in deep, movie preview guy voice] In a world turned upside-down, Penn State is rolling and the Illini are staggering. Now, as the Orange and Blue prepare to take up arms against the Nittany Lions on friendly turf, one question remains: can the Illini flip the script and save their season? The day of reckoning is at hand. [Loud orchestral note].

Illinois - Penn State II: The Reckoning. Opens Tuesday night, unless it's postponed by a blizzard. This game is not yet rated because we don't know how much swearing Illini fans do while watching the game until after it starts.

[Back to my not-so-impressive voice] A lot has changed in the 3 weeks since the first Illini-Penn State meeting. The Illini entered that game on a three-game winning streak, but have now lost four of five and are edging into bubbleville. On the other side of the equation, Penn State's conquests of the Illini, Michigan State, and Wisconsin have propelled them into NCAA tournament consideration. So there's quite a bit at stake for both teams when they meet on Tuesday night.

For the Illini, this was supposed to be part of a stretch of "should-win" games before entering the meatier second half of the Big Ten schedule. But with the Illini coughing up Thursday's game at Indiana, this game becomes even more crucial. With five road games left on the docket (including trips to top 25 opponents Purdue, Minnesota, and Ohio State), the Illini can ill afford to lose any of their remaining home games. Of greater concern, given the fragile mental composition of this team, is that a loss to Penn State on Tuesday could send them skidding out of control and out of the NCAA tournament picture completely.

As for the Nittany Lions - first, I guess we can stop calling the Illini's loss to them in January a bad loss, unless you think losing to a team that's ahead of you in the standings constitutes a bad loss. You read that right: Penn State (5-4) is now ahead of Illinois (4-4) in the Big Ten standings. Penn State has won 6 of the last 11 meetings between the teams, and with the Big Ten's second leading scorer (Illini-killer Talor Battle) on their side, they'll certainly enter Tuesday's game brimming with confidence - especially knowing that a sweep of a fellow mid-tier conference mate could go a long way toward putting themselves back into the NCAA tournament for the first time since the Nittany Lions roster was loaded with Crispin brothers.

Prediction: The 2010-11 Illini have made a habit of playing to the level of their competition, good or bad. Call me crazy, but I think this can work in the Illini's favor. Penn State has been playing well of late (four wins in their last six games, with the two losses being a three-point loss at Ohio State and a referee-screw-job special at Purdue), so if the pattern holds it's more likely that they'll bring out the best in the Illini on Tuesday. And unlike Ohio State, Penn State isn't good enough to win at the Assembly Hall if the Illini bring their "A" game. I'm thinking the Illini can win this one, but if they lose, look out below.

Final Score - Illini with more points than Penn State

Another Illini Loss to Penn State? Ho-Hum.

Illinois is supposed to be a basketball school. Penn State hasn't made the NCAA tournament since 2001. And yet the Marshmallows Illini are 5-6 in their last 11 meetings with Penn State after tonight's 57-55 loss. I'm surprised their fans rushed the court at the end of the game - don't they expect to beat us by now?

As for the Illini, they've now lost to a team that's 0-5 in the Horizon League (UIC; the Flames haven't won since beating the Illini) AND to a team (Penn State) that lost at home to Maine. We can't blame this one on poor shooting either, since the Illini actually outshot Penn State (41.3% to 34.6% overall; the Illini were 7-16 on 3-pointers versus 7-24 for the Nittany Lions) and even made 10 of 11 free throws.

Bottom line - even after this loss, the Illini will probably still make the NCAA tournament, and will probably also make some mid-major school very happy when they see they're playing the Illini in the first round.

There's a First Time for Everything - Including a Win at Penn State

Oskee-wow-wow! It's always fun to spoil someone else's homecoming game, as the Illini did by throttling Penn State 33-13 for their first ever win in Happy Valley on Saturday. A couple of weeks ago, I was wondering where the Illini would find a 6th win to become bowl-eligible, and even with Penn State struggling, I still didn't expect that this would be the game.

I've been very impressed with the defense so far this year and how even in the two losses, they've kept the game close to the very end. Today they continued their strong play - Penn State's points came off of one big play and two mishandled punt returns. So the defense playing well wasn't surprising. The offense, on the other hand, was a surprise, because Penn State had been playing well on defense. But the Illini piled up more yards rushing (280) then Penn State had altogether (234). And if Nathan Scheelhaase continues to throw the ball as well as he did today (and as he did previously against SIU), the offense's balance and firepower will be a nightmare for opposing defenses to stop.

As much fun as this one was, I'm not quite ready to drink the orange Kool-Aid. This team has yet to show how it reacts in a game when it's supposed to win, and some of the "pushovers" on our schedule have the ability to push back. But still, it's nice to know that if this team takes care of business and wins the games they're supposed to win, Illini fans will definitely have a bowl game of some sort to look forward to.

Is This The Year?

llinois has never won at Happy Valley. In fact, the only time Illinois has ever beaten Penn St. away from Champaign was in 1960, in Cleveland, by a score of 10-8. (Fun fact - if you check out the Illini roster for that game, you'll see that Jesse Louis Jackson, Sr. apparently played for the Illini that day).

Anyway, considering that both teams play pretty good defense (Illinois 18 PPG against, 5th in the Big 10; Penn St. 15 PPG against, 3rd in the Big 10), and that both teams have struggled on offense (Illinois 9th in the Big 10 with 22.3 PPG; Penn St. last with 19.2 PPG), another 10-8 score isn't out of the question. The problem is that the Illini have been so one-dimensional on offense that unless Scheelhaase steps up in the passing game (as he did against SIU), we'll continue to struggle as teams gear up for the run. I see another close game (like OSU), but again, I'm afraid that turnovers and/or stupid penalties will bite us. Our first win in Happy Valley will have to wait.

Prediction - Penn St. 17, Illinois 9

Missed Opportunity

It's not every day that a huge underdog has a chance to beat the second-ranked team in the country, but the Illini had that chance on Saturday, hanging in against the Buckeyes before a late 4th quarter TD sealed a 24-13 Illini loss. I'm going to gloss over the fact that the Illini were unable to take advantage of the Buckeyes after knocking Heisman Trophy candidate Terrelle Pryor from the game. Instead, I'm looking at that 4th quarter.

After the Buckeyes kicked a field goal to make the score 17-10, the Illini responded with a 67-yard drive that stalled inside the OSU 15 yard line, and the Illini settled for a field goal, even though they would still need a TD to win, to make it 17-13. I'm not even going to complain about that decision, because it sounds like a second-guess. Besides, if the Illini defense could hold one more time, the offense could get the ball back with a shot to pull off the upset. But here's how things unfolded:

• A 15-yard personal foul penalty on the ensuing kick return gave OSU the ball near midfield.
• After allowing one first down, the Illini stopped the Buckeyes on a third down, which would have given them another possession, but on the play Justin Green lined up offside to give the Buckeyes a first down.
• The Buckeyes went on to score the clinching TD.

The offisde penalty was particularly galling. On the radio call, Kurt Kittner called it a "stupid penalty", especially because Green was lined up right in front of the Illini bench and none of the coaches moved him back. So once again, penalties killed the Illini (nine for 74 yards, including the two crucial ones I mentioned), and the poorly-coached, undisciplined Illini missed their chance to score a major upset. The good news: if the Illini play this way against Penn State (which looked helpless against Iowa last night), this team might be able to overcome itself and win.