In the middle of the 1995 Big Ten season, the Illini suffered back-to-back disheartening home losses: first to Michigan State (a 27-21 loss); and then to Northwestern (17-14). The next game on the schedule was a road trip to Iowa City. I expected to see a blowout, and that's exactly what happened. Only the Illini weren't the victims, they were the perpetrators - the good guys routed the Hawkeyes 26-7. I know everyone's upset about the current state of the Illini football team (rightfully so), and in the wake of the current two-game losing streak Ron Zook's name is starting to appear on "hot seat" lists again. But if a Lou Tepper-coached team could stop a two-game losing streak as a big underdog in a hostile environment, is it out of the question for a Zook-coached team to do the same thing when the Illini (6-2, 4-4) travel to Happy Valley on Saturday to face Penn State (7-1, 4-0)?
Why Illinois could win
Despite the presence of one of the Big Ten's top running backs (Silas Redd), Penn State's offense has struggled to put points on the scoreboard this year - they rank 9th in the conference, with 23 points per game. The Nittany Lions' problems on offense are due in large part to not having a true #1 quarterback. Neither Matt McGloin nor Rob Bolden has been able to seize the job, and whoever does end up taking the snaps on Saturday will be without his team's top receiver (Derek Moye). And while Redd has helped Penn State's offense control the clock (4th in the Big Ten in time of possession), the Lions have had trouble finishing drives. Their 34 trips into the red zone this year have resulted in only 16 touchdowns, making them the only Big Ten team that hasn't converted at least 50% of their red zone possessions into touchdowns. If I didn't know better, I'd think that Mike Martz was in charge of the Lions' red zone play-calling duties. The Illini got into trouble at Purdue last week by falling into a 21-0 hole in the first half, but Penn State doesn't have the goods on offense to build up that kind of lead. So even if the Illini continue to struggle on offense, they'll still be able to stay in the game.
Why Penn State could win
The Lions boast the top ranked scoring defense in the Big Ten, allowing just a hair over 13 points per game. Penn State is tough on both the run (2nd in the Big Ten) and the pass (3rd in the Big Ten), and they boast a fierce pass rush (3rd in the Big Ten in sacks), which could be a scary matchup for an Illini offensive line that has allowed more sacks this year than any Big Ten team besides Northwestern. Another bad sign: Penn State is second in the Big Ten in number of turnovers forced, while the Illini rank dead last in number of turnovers committed. Add it all up, and it's difficult to envision a struggling Illini offense that hasn't scored a point in the first three quarters of either of its last two games suddenly rediscovering its early season form on Saturday.
Prediction
With two good defensive teams squaring off, expect a low-scoring game. If the Illini hadn't come out of Happy Valley with a win last year, I think they'd be in great position to pull the upset on Saturday. Unfortunately, I just can't see the Illini winning two straight years on the road against JoePa and company. The losing streak will reach three games.
Penn State 16
Illinois 10
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