Wednesday, October 12, 2011

Welcome to Chicago, Theo Epstein!

The Jewish fall harvest holiday Sukkot began on Wednesday night, and to celebrate, it looks as if the Cubs have harvested themselves a GM who assembled a team that won two World Series in a four-year span.  According to reports, Theo Epstein has agreed to a five-year deal to leave the Red Sox and take charge of the Cubs. 

When Jim Hendry was fired, I said that hiring his replacement would be one of the most important decisions in franchise history, and I'll give credit to the Ricketts family - they knocked this one out onto Waveland Avenue.  It's not just that Epstein broke the "Curse of the Bambino" in leading the Red Sox to glory, it's the way he accomplished it:


  • After Billy Beane turned down Boston's offer to become GM after the 2002 season, the Red Sox gave the job to Epstein, who had a lot in common with Beane.  Epstein understands the value of advanced quantitative analysis - among the early front office hires during his tenure was Sabermetrician Bill James  - and Epstein was instrumental in building the Red Sox into a "Moneyball with money" organization.  It's a stark contrast to the Jim Hendry regime, during which the Cubs' front office never seemed to get on board with the whole Sabermetrics thing.  Look at the way Hendry built up his roster - from the frequent acquisitions of OBP sinkholes (Juan Pierre, Neifi Perez, Jacque Jones, Alfonso Soriano, Marlon Byrd) to the fact that other than Geovany Soto, all of the players who have come to the major leagues from the Cubs' farm system in recent years (Darwin Barney, Tyler Colvin, Starlin Castro) have had terrible plate discipline - it's as if almost ten years after the publication of Moneyball, the Cubs still haven't figured out that a lineup full of players who don't draw walks won't score a lot of runs.  I'm excited at the possibility of a Cubs front office that searches for and exploits inefficiencies in the market for baseball players.
  • While it's true that the a large part of the Red Sox success comes from their big market payroll, for the most part Epstein has demonstrated an ability to use his resources wisely.  In one of his first moves as Boston GM, he snagged David Ortiz off the waiver wire; Ortiz has since hit over 300 HR for the Red Sox.  Epstein leveraged his team's financial and farm system resources to put together the deal that sent Hanley Ramirez (and other minor leaguers) to Florida for Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, and those two players were instrumental in Boston's 2007 World Series victory*.  This past off-season, he pulled off a similar maneuver in landing Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres.  Epstein also has shown that he won't let sentiment weigh into his player-personnel decisions:  after the 2004 World Series, he didn't cave in and overpay post-season heroes Derek Lowe and Pedro Martinez; instead, he let them leave via free agency.  And for all of their resources, it's not like the Red Sox only know how to build a team by poaching players from lower-revenue organizations - Epstein's farm system has produced All-Stars Jacoby Ellsbury, Jonathan Papelbon, and AL MVP Dustin Pedroia.   Sure, there have been some clunkers on Epstein's watch (Daisuke Matsuzaka, John Lackey, Carl Crawford so far), but that's true of any team with a high payroll, and it's not like he was wildly throwing money at free agents to cover for a completely unproductive farm system.  The bottom line is that Epstein has proven that he knows how to put together a team that's built to win over the long haul.
  • One of Epstein's most important legacies in Boston was overhauling Fenway Park and finding ways to increase revenue streams (e.g. adding seats on top of the Green Monster).  Tom Ricketts has also been trying to squeeze more money out of an aging but beloved ballpark, and I'm guessing that he and Epstein will find ways to make this happen at Wrigley Field as well.
*EDIT:  In researching a little further, it looks like I over-credited Epstein, since the Beckett/Lowell/Ramirez trade went down during the brief period when Epstein resigned as Boston GM during the 2005-06 off-season.   But on the plus side, since he didn't trade away Hanley Ramirez, I guess that means he'd just be less inclined to trade away Starlin Castro, right?

So this marks a fantastic day for the Cubs and their fans.  It may take a couple of years for Epstein to clear out the dead weight contracts on the roster and build up the farm system, but I'll go on record right now as saying that with Epstein running the show, the Cubs will be a National League powerhouse within five years.  Well done, Tom Ricketts.  And Mazel Tov to you, Theo Epstein - here's hoping for a long and successful run in Chicago.

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