Illini vs. Purdue Preview: Cannon Fodder?

I guess we all knew it was going to end sometime.  And since the Illini aren't going to finish the season undefeated, now we'll find out whether last Saturday's loss to Ohio State was just a bump in the road, or...whatever the opposite of a bump in the road is...the beginning of a giant sinkhole, I guess.  This week, the Illini leave home for just the second time in 2011 as they make the short trip to West Lafayette to face the Purdue Boilermakers (3-3, 1-2).  And for the third straight week, the winner takes home a trophy.  At stake this week - the Purdue Cannon (not pictured, left, but I'd love to win a trophy that looked like that).  Last year, the Illini claimed the Cannon for the first time since 2002 with a 44-10 victory, but that was an injury-riddled Purdue team we knocked around in Champaign.  Will a healthy bunch of Boilermakers be able to turn the tables on the Illini this year?

Last week, the Buckeyes provided the rest of the Big Ten a blueprint for how to beat the Illini:  get an early lead, then run a ball control offense, use special teams to play the field position game, and force (and take advantage of) turnovers.  Let's look at the Boilermakers and see if they have what it takes to execute that strategy: 

• Ball control.  The Boilermakers run a balanced offense, but lean on their running game (ranked 24th nationally) more than their passing game (94th nationally in yardage, 85th in passing efficiency).  The Boilers don't rely on a single feature back like Ohio State's Dan Herron; instead, they spread the workload between Ralph Bolden and Akeem Shavers, both of whom do average over five yards per carry.  However, despite their tendencies, the Boilers rank in the middle of the Big Ten pack in time of possession (at just under 30 minutes per game), and in their two toughest tests this year (against Notre Dame and at Penn State), Purdue averaged just over 26 minutes of possession, so I don't believe that Purdue will be able to play keep-away against us the way that Ohio State did.
• Special teams.  ZOMG!  We've managed to find a team that's actually worse at a facet of special teams than the Illini are!  The Boilermakers are the worst team in the nation in kickoff coverage.  Of course, the Illini rank 118th in the nation (third from the bottom) in kickoff returns, so I guess something will have to give this week.  But aside from when Purdue kicks off to Illinois (which we hope doesn't happen often), there is (naturally) a decided advantage for the Boilermakers over our "special" teams.  Purdue ranks 5th in the country in net punting, 45th in punt return yardage, and 19th in kickoff return yardage (the Illini are in the bottom 15 nationally in all three of those categories).  And in Carson Wiggs, Purdue also has a kicker with tremendous range (in his career, he's made four field goals of over 50 yards, with a long of 59 yards).  Although Wiggs has been shaky this year (he's only connected 9 times in 14 attempts), it'd be just our luck to have him suddenly find his accuracy against the Illini.  Bottom line - the Boilers' special teams units do give them the ability to win the field position battles.
• Turnovers.  Last week, the Illini lost the turnover battle 3-0; two of the turnovers gave the Ohio State offense short fields and the Buckeyes cashed in both of those opportunities with touchdowns.  But Ohio State came into Champaign with a +3 turnover margin on the season; on the other hand, Purdue enters this game having forced only seven turnovers on the season (second worst in the Big Ten).  After committing eight turnovers in the last three games, the Illini have now turned the ball over more than any other Big Ten team this year, which means (again) that something has to give this week.  The way I see it - the Illini's last three opponents (Northwestern, Indiana, and Ohio State) all rank in the top half of the Big Ten in turnovers forced, but since Purdue doesn't, the Illini should return to their early season ways, when they committed only six turnovers in their first four games.

Prediction
With games coming up against Penn State, Michigan, and Wisconsin, this becomes a critical game for the Illini, as a loss could easily send the team spiraling into a five-game losing streak.  And the Boilermakers will be a much tougher test than the Illini faced in their last trip to the State of Indiana.  Purdue managed to put up 18 points in their close call at Penn State last weekend, and while that doesn't sound like much, only one other team (#2 Alabama) has scored more than 10 points on the Nittany Lions defense this year.  But remember - Purdue's wins have come against Middle Tennessee (1-4 on the season), Southeast Missouri State (an FCS team with a 1-5 record) and Minnesota (also 1-5).  They also managed to lose to a 2-4 Rice team.  So I don't see the Boilermakers being able to duplicate Ohio State's effort against the Illini.  Coming off a loss, I think the Illini will avoid the dreaded "trap" game and put together a solid bounce-back effort this week.  Purdue's Homecoming will be spoiled, and the Cannon will spend another year in Champaign.

Illini 28
Purdue 16