One for the History Books

Under Bruce Weber, the Illini have suffered some huge embarrassments, like losing at home to Tennessee State during the 2007-08 season, or the back-to-back losses against Utah and Bradley last season that ultimately cost the team an NCAA tournament bid. And with yesterday's abomination against UIC, it looks like Weber has now established the "loss to a crappy mid-major team" as an annual tradition (similar to Ron Zook's "pi$$ing away a home game against a vastly inferior opponent" annual tradition).

So how bad was the UIC loss? Let's look at it with Ken Pomeroy's rankings. Coming into the UIC game, the Illini were ranked #12 in Pomeroy's system, while the Flames were ranked #224, for a ranking differential of 212 places (the system gave the Flames a 2% chance of beating the Illini). As for some other bad Illini losses in the Weber era, I don't have a way to check the comparative rankings coming into the games, but I can compare the season-ending rankings of the Illini and their various mid-major conquerors:

The 2009-10 Utah Utes finished #114 in Pomeroy's system, while Bradley finished #125; the Illini finished #53 last year. Not too bad in terms of ranking differential (as long as you don't dwell on that "missing the NCAA tournament" thing).

The 2007-08 Tennessee State Tigers finished the year ranked #227 in Pomeroy's system; that season's Illini team finished #40, for a differential of 187.

It's hard to believe that the Illini could "top" the embarrassment of the Tennessee State loss, but in terms of Pomeroy ranking differential, the UIC loss was actually worse (which makes sense considering that the 07-08 Illini team finished with a losing record and near the bottom of the Big 10, while this year's Illini entered the UIC game as a top-fifteen team with designs on competing for the Big 10 title). It will be interesting to see how far the Illini drop in Pomeroy's system as a result of losing to a team outside the top 200. And while this one probably won't cost the team an NCAA tournament bid (like last year's twin losses in Vegas did), it will certainly knock them down a line or two when it comes to their seeding, which will make it that much more difficult for them to get to the second weekend of the tournament.

Bruce Weber's Fighting Illini - continuing to make the unthinkable thinkable.

We Got Wood - Again!

Jim Hendry made a great move by signing Kerry Wood. Since the Ricketts family purchased that time machine, I'm assuming that the Cubs will be using it to bring back the 2003 version of Wood to be the number one starter they need, and that....I'm sorry, what did you say? The Cubs don't have access to a time machine? So you're telling me that the Cubs will be getting the 2011 version of Kerry Wood - a middle reliever who'll pitch about 70 innings next year, and not a staff ace. Well, that's not really going to help them make up 16 games in the standings next year, is it? In fact, if I were cynical, I'd say this is just a ploy by Jim Hendry - sign a popular former Cub to try to distract the fans from how bad the team is going to be in 2011. Oh, wait, I am a cynic, so that's exactly what I'm saying.

EDIT - it looks like the Cubs made a pretty good deal here: one year, $1.5 million. Especially when you consider that next year they'll be paying $4.8 million to John Grabow and $3.5 million to Jeff Samardzija to be much, much worse that Wood. But it still won't transform the Cubs into a good team, and it probably won't even make them into a mediocre team.

A Smart Move by Jim Hendry?

Yes, I do think the Carlos Pena signing was a good one. Some people will negatively obsess over his .196 batting average in 2010, but he also had 28 HR, 84 RBI, and 87 walks, which would have led the Cubs in all three categories. It's interesting to compare the two Chicago first basemen, the other of whom just signed a three-year contract for more money than Pena received.

Pena (career): .351 OBP, .490 SLG, 123 OPS+, 33 years old.

Konerko (career): .356 OBP, .498 SLG, 119 OPS+, 35 years old.

Pena bats left-handed, is a pretty good fielder, and the one-year contract doesn't handcuff the Cubs beyond the 2011 season. So if the team stinks (which they will) and he bounces back to his 2007-09 levels, he'll be a good trading chip. If he's no good, you can easily say good-bye to him at the end of the year and go after a bigger fish when you'll have more money to spend next offseason.

Kudos to you, Jim Hendry, and keep up the (relatively) good work!

R.I.P. #10

Goodbye to the only man who may have been more frustrated by watching the 2009-2010 Cubs than I was. Bill James has written that if he were in charge of the Hall of Fame selections, Ron Santo would be the first player he'd put in, yet neither the baseball writers nor the Veterans Committee believed that a third baseman with nine All-Star game appearances, five Gold Gloves, and a career OPS+ of 125 was worthy of induction into the Hall of Fame.  It would have been nice for them to put him into the Hall while was still alive to enjoy it, because he really did deserve it.

Adam Dunn Comes to Chicago!

The White Sox have signed Adam Dunn and may still have enough money left to re-sign Paul Konerko. Apparently, the Sox can afford two first basemen, but the Cubs can't afford any. But fear not, fellow Cubs fans - Jeff Baker is coming back! And Koyie Hill (32 years old next year; career OPS+ 49) wasn't non-tendered, so he might be back too!

2011 Cubs Baseball - Feel the Excitement (TM)!