It’s a battle for bowl eligibility in Ann Arbor on Saturday. At game’s end, either the 5-3 Illini or the 5-3 Michigan Wolverines will have earned a 6th win and the right to play a 13th game this year. Even though both teams have identical records, they are currently going in opposite directions. Imagine the two teams are in a shopping mall: Illinois, with back-to-back blowout wins, would be on the “up” escalator; while Michigan, with three straight losses, would be right next to the Illini, but on the adjacent “down” escalator. As a historical note, the Illini will also be striving for a third consecutive win over Michigan, which hasn’t happened since the Orange and Blue won four straight over the Maize and Blue from 1950 to 1953.
When Michigan has the Football
Two words – Denard Robinson.
OK, that’s not much of a write-up, so I’ll continue. Michigan’s quarterback is leading the Big Ten in total rushing yards and is second in the nation in rushing yards per game (160.88). When he’s not running wild on opposing defenses, he’s also found time to pass for 188.6 yards per game. While Michigan’s three-game losing streak has slowed the “Denard Robinson for Heisman Trophy” bandwagon, he’s still a very dangerous player, and the Illini defense hasn’t encountered a two-way threat of his caliber yet this year. Thanks largely to Robinson, the Michigan offense has been a force, averaging over 35 points per game, good for 19th in the nation. Aside from a 17-point effort against Michigan State, they’ve scored at least 28 points in every game this year. Vic Koenning’s defense enters Saturday ranked 12th in the nation in scoring defense (16.8 points per game), but their run of strong performances will be put to the test.
When Illinois has the Football
It’s a good thing for Michigan that their offense is so good, because their defense is awful. It’s true that the Wolverines have battled injuries this year, especially in the secondary, but even accounting for that they’ve been awful. Michigan is 10th in the Big Ten in scoring defense (30 points per game); last week, Penn State, which looked toothless in scoring only 13 points against the Illini, scored 41 points against Michigan. In other words, this is a bad time for the Wolverines to be facing a red-hot offense. The Illini are coming off their best offensive showing of the year in the win over Purdue, and Michigan may not be the only team in Saturday’s game that boasts a two-way threat at quarterback. Last week, Purdue focused on stopping Mikel Leshoure, and they did hold him to 23 yards rushing. However, Nathan Scheelhaase foiled that strategy by having the best game of his young career, totaling 118 yards rushing and 195 yards (and 4 TDs) passing. You can sense that Scheelhaase, the reigning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week, is growing more and more comfortable running the offense as the season progresses, and that Paul Petrino is showing increased confidence in Scheelhaase by opening up the offense for him. And if UMass was able to hang 37 points on the Wolverine defense in the Big House earlier this year, we might be looking at another banner game for the Illini offense this week.
Prediction
The Wolverines have been installed as 3-point favorites in Saturday’s game. I have a feeling that if the names on the jerseys were erased, the IlIini might be favored (it would certainly help perceptions if our last three-game win streak against Michigan hadn’t started during the Truman administration). A glance at the rest of Michigan’s schedule, with heavyweights Wisconsin and Ohio State looming, shows that Michigan really needs to win on Saturday. While a loss to the Illini wouldn’t be fatal to their bowl hopes – they could still get a 6th win against Purdue next week – a 6-6 record on the heels of last year’s season-ending collapse, coupled with more NCAA troubles, might lead to the end of Rich Rodriguez’s tenure as Michigan coach (on the plus side, with a 6-6 record it would be a short trip for Michigan fans to see their team play in the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl in Detroit). All this is a roundabout way of saying that I think the Wolverines are backed into a corner and will give us everything they have. But looking objectively at the two teams and how they’ve played recently, I also think that the Illini should be able to put enough points on the board to overcome whatever damage Michigan’s offense is able to inflict on the Illini D. Bowl eligibility, here we come!
Illinois 33
Michigan 24
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