The Pitching Staff
The Cubs may lack a true ace, but they have a solid (and healthy) starting rotation, which is more than the Brewers, Reds, and Cardinals can say right now. Ryan Dempster, Carlos Zambrano, Matt Garza, and Randy Wells should each give the Cubs between 180 and 200 quality innings. Much was made of Garza's poor performance in spring training, but unless he's hiding an injury there's no cause for alarm. Marlon Byrd hit over .400 during spring training, but I haven't seen anyone writing about how he's going to threaten Ted Williams this year. Koyie Hill went 1 for 32 during spring training, but...OK, bad example, but you get my point - spring training is such a small sampling of games that it's hardly predictive of a player's performance for the year. Andrew Cashner is the only unknown in the rotation right now, and you could do a lot worse than having him as your fifth starter (see Silva, Carlos or Estes, Shawn). The Cubs are also strong in the back of the bullpen with Carlos Marmol closing and Kerry Wood and Shawn Marshall setting up. The middle relief crew (Grabow, Samardzija, Russell, Mateo) is a big pile of "meh", but that's true of pretty much any team's middle relievers.
The Offense
Besides Geovany Soto and Starlin Castro, the Cubs don't have any offensive players on the upside of their careers. They do have some aging veterans who have put up big numbers in the past (Aramis Ramirez, Alfonso Soriano, Carlos Pena), and the team will need a big bounceback from at least two of those players (and maybe all three) to contend in 2011. I've said it before and I'll say it again - Pena's move from a pitcher's park to a hitter's park makes him a good bet to dramatically improve on last year's numbers. I also think Aramis Ramirez (.271/.321/.526 post-All-Star Break in 2010 - which is similar to his career .282/.340/.499 line) has another big year left in him. But Soriano is getting more and more one-dimensional on offense (he had fewer stolen base attempts than AJ Pierzynski did last year), so he's going to have to top 30 homers (a total he hasn't reached since 2007), for him to be a net positive in the lineup.
As for the projected lineup (at least if the Opening Day lineup is any indication), I like seeing Kosuke Fukudome in the leadoff role, where his patient approach (he finished second on the team in 2010 with a .371 OBP), plays well. But if Mike Quade really plans on using Byrd (.429 SLG in 2010, career .423 SLG) in the number three slot all year when other teams in the NL Central will be using the likes of Albert Pujols, Joey Votto, or Ryan Braun, I'll guarantee that this team will finish no better than they did last year. I'd move Ramirez and Soto up to the 3 and 4 spots and move Byrd down to 6th or 7th in the order, next to Soriano. Everything else looks OK to me, although it would look better if the Cubs had an actual everyday second baseman.
Outlook
The 2011 pitching staff should be able to keep the Cubs in most games, just like last year, when the Cubs led the NL in quality starts. But I can't see the Cubs generating enough offense to be able to push them past all three of the teams that finished ahead of them last year. The Reds, Brewers, and Cardinals each boast at least one MVP candidate in the middle of their lineups, but the Cubs don't. So just like last year, I see between 74 and 78 wins, a 4th place finish, and one more "Wait Till Next Year" for Cubs fans.
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