It seems like it's been forever since the Illini basketball team played in a game that counted, but on Friday, the Illini will open their season against Loyola, and I'm looking forward to having meaningful basketball games to talk about again. That certainly beats going over what's happened to our basketball team during the last five seasons. I've already made my feelings on Bruce Weber known, and I don't want to spend too much time re-hashing that discussion, because I'm tired of it. I'm tired of not feeling invincible on our home court. I'm tired of being a bubble team, needing to win games in the Big Ten Tournament just to make the NCAA tournament. But most of all, I'm tired of our team being completely out of the picture when it comes not only to national championships, but also to Big Ten championships. So probably the best news about the new season is that one way or the other, by March we should have our answer on the "fire Bruce Weber" question.
OK, now that I'm done talking about the past, it's time to look at the present.
The good news for 2011-12: Weber has stacked three consecutive top-15 recruiting classes, and with eight consensus top-100 players on the roster, the Illini have more raw talent than anyone in the Big Ten aside from conference favorite Ohio State. But the key word in that sentence is "raw" - the Illini lost five of their top seven players from the 2010-11 season, and only two current players (juniors Brandon Paul and D.J. Richardson) have seen significant playing time with the Illini. The only senior on the team is point guard (and Bradley transfer) Sam Maniscalco, who is battling foot injuries, and the Illini will be relying heavily on several untested freshmen (none of whom are Carmelo Anthony/Derrick Rose "instant impact" types) and a handful of lightly-used returnees (Tyler Griffey, Joseph Bertrand, and Meyers Leonard, plus Crandall Head, who will be suspended and out of action to begin the season).
As a result, the national (and regional) preseason prognosticators aren't exactly buying in to what the Illini are selling. The individual writers who cover the Big Ten have the Illini finishing anywhere from 4th place to 9th place in the conference. On the national scene, the Illini garnered no votes in the preseason coaches' poll, and just two votes in the preseason AP poll, and the majority of national writers (including the computer-based projections and the two major bracketologists) seem to think we'll be closer to 9th place (and a season on the NCAA tournament bubble, or worse) than to 4th place. I guess if we want to look at the bright side, we could say that the Illini will have a lot of "bulletin board" material going into the season (in order to display everything, however, Weber will need to invest in a bigger bulletin board). But you didn't come here to find out what everyone else thinks about the Illini, right? You came to find out what I think will happen this year. So how do I see the season unfolding?
First, the non-conference portion of the schedule, which is perfect for an inexperienced team. Looking at our 13 pre-Big Ten opponents, I'd say that all of the games are winnable. Not that we'll win them all, but the games that would appear to be the most challenging are either at home (Gonzaga), against teams that will be adjusting to new coaches (Maryland, UNLV, Missouri), or against teams that are also experiencing heavy roster turnover (Richmond, which lost its top three scorers from last year's Sweet 16 squad). Unfortunately, because this team will need to take some time to establish chemistry and sort out roles, there will be a hiccup or two before January. Early upset watch - look out for Saint Bonaventure, which features a senior center (Andrew Nicholson) who averaged 20 points and 7 rebounds last year and who could be a match-up nightmare for our green frontcourt. I see us finishing 10-3 in the non-conference portion of the schedule.
Now, the Big Ten (and beyond). Other than Ohio State, there aren't any great teams in the conference, and even the "good" teams have question marks: Purdue must replace two NBA draft picks; Wisconsin lost two of their top three scorers; Michigan will have to make do without star point guard Darius Morris; and Michigan State lost three starters. In other words, on the whole, the Big Ten is down this year, which should be an advantage for the Illini. I predict that we'll struggle early in conference play, but our talent will come to the forefront by the middle of the Big Ten schedule, and we'll end the year playing our best basketball, with an 11-7 conference record and a fourth place finish. Throw in one win in the Big Ten Tournament, and we'll be 22-11 on Selection Sunday. The Illini will be solidly in the NCAA tournament field, earning a #7 seed, and will pick up one more win to end the season with a 23-12 record. But the proverbial arrow will be pointed up going into the 2012-13 season, and with everyone (except Mansicalco) returning, the Illini will be poised for bigger and better things. And to answer the question I raised earlier - yes, Bruce Weber will have done enough to keep his job, and I have no problem whatsoever being wrong about Weber if it means we're winning games and playing an exciting style of basketball again.
Sound good, Illini fans? Now let's see if Weber and this team can stick it to all of the doubters.
Go Illini!
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