Illini Football - Midseason Review

The Illini limped into the midpoint of the 2009 season with a 1-5 record – and the one win was against Illinois State. The big topic of discussion was who would succeed Ron Zook as head coach. Thanks to the generosity (or is it the stinginess?) of Ron Guenther, Zook managed to survive another year, but with new coordinators on both sides of the ball and a freshman quarterback, my expectations weren’t too high for 2010. However, despite facing one of the toughest schedules in the country, the Illini have managed a 3-3 start and have given fans reasons for optimism, both for this year and into the future. We have hit the halfway point of the 2010 regular season (“regular” being the key word, I hope), so it’s a good time to take a look at some of the key first-half numbers to see how the Illini have done and where they can get better.

18.5 – Points per Game Allowed by the Illini Defense

Vic Koenning’s schemes, and the way his players have executed them, have allowed the Illini defense to take a quantum leap forward from last year, when they allowed a conference-worst 30.2 points per game. They’ve accomplished this despite having to cover for several injured players in the defensive backfield. Even when facing superior talent, the defense has helped keep the Illini close in every game so far, and they’ve been the biggest reason for the team’s improved play this year.

8 – Turnovers Forced

Amid the well-deserved accolades for the defense, one area in which they haven’t improved is forcing turnovers. In six games, the Illini have forced only eight turnovers, which puts them on the exact pace of last season, when the Illini forced 16 (in 12 games). While it seems like nitpicking, and while some of this may be attributable to the missing defensive starters, it would be nice to see the defense step things up here, creating shorter fields and easier scoring opportunities for the offense in the season’s second half.

21.3 – Points per Game Scored by the Illini Offense

Unfortunately, so far this year Paul Petrino’s new offensive system has not had the same positive impact as Koenning’s new defense. The Illini rank second-to-last in the Big Ten in points per game. One particular problem has been in the red zone. Yes, the Illini have scored on 18 of their 19 red zone possessions this year (the only time they failed to convert was at the end of the Michigan State game), but 9 of those 18 have been field goals. Of course, some of that can be attributed to playing it safe, thanks to having a freshman quarterback running things (see below), but the offense needs to do a better job of finishing drives and not having to settle for so many “threes”.

73.7 – Nathan Scheelhaase’s Quarterback Rating in Illini Losses

When Scheelhaase has struggled, the Illini have struggled along with him – he’s thrown seven interceptions and just one touchdown pass in the three losses. Conversely, when he has passed well the Illini offense has been much more effective – in the three Illini wins, Scheelhaase’s rating is a sparkling 159.8. Like any freshman quarterback, Scheelhaase has had his ups and downs this year, but while he doesn’t have to play like Tony Eason or Jeff George for the Illini to win, we can’t afford to have him emulating Mark Hoekstra or Tim Lavery either. As teams continue to pack the line of scrimmage to stop Mikel Leshoure and the Illini’s powerful running attack, Scheelhaase will have to make enough positive plays with his arm to keep opponents honest.

92.3 – Derek Dimke’s Success Rate on Field Goals

The Illini began 2009 with Matt Eller on field goal duties, and the results were disastrous. Eller made only 4 of the 11 kicks he tried, including missing twice inside 30 yards, and didn’t make a kick longer than 38 yards. Dimke took over for Eller toward the end of the season and made all five of his attempts (including kicks of 48 and 44 yards). He has continued his fine work this year – his combination of accuracy (only one miss in 13 attempts) and strength (2 for 2 on kicks of 50 or more yards) has given this team a potent weapon. (Note – in the interest of fairness, I will say that I’m forever grateful to Matt Eller for this moment).

46.7 – Yards per Punt by Anthony Santella

To me, Santella has been one of the biggest surprises on this year’s team and an underrated factor in their success. He’s the leading punter in the Big Ten, and his net punting average this year (41.1 yards per kick) is higher than his career gross punting average (39.4 yards per kick) entering this season. A punter like Santella can help bail the team out when the offense stagnates and give the Illini an edge in field position battles, which is key when you have a solid defense. But Santella (and Dimke) will both have the same challenge in the second half – when the temperatures start dropping late in the season, the winds pick up and kicking becomes more unpredictable. The two kickers have given the Illini a lift in the first six games; whether they can continue their success will be a big story line in the second half.

57.2 – Penalty Yards per Game

In the last two years, the Illini have finished last (2009) and second-to-last (2008) in the Big Ten in penalty yards per game. This year’s team has improved slightly (to 8th), but penalties have still proven costly to the Illini – not just in losses (especially Ohio State) but also in wins (85 yards in Illini penalties made the Northern Illinois game more difficult than it otherwise should have been). Some teams are good enough to overcome penalties – Michigan State is last in the Big Ten with 73 yards per game, for instance – but Illinois is not at that level yet. The Illini will need to show more discipline in the next six games to make things easier on themselves.

Zero – BCS Top-25 Teams Remaining on the Schedule

During the first six games this year, the Illini faced three teams (Missouri, Ohio State, and Michigan State) currently ranked in the top eleven of the BCS standings. Looking forward, none of the last six opponents appear in the BCS top 25. Our toughest remaining game is probably against Michigan in Ann Arbor – you know, in the stadium where UMass scored 37 points this year. Even though the Illini won’t win every game left on the schedule, they will at least have a legitimate chance to win each week from here on out.

13 – The Number of Games We Hope Illinois Plays This Year

Beginning with the 2006 season, the NCAA has allowed teams to play 12 regular season games instead of 11. Since the rule change took effect, the Illini have only played a 13th game (i.e. a bowl game) once. Considering the way the Illini have played so far in 2010, and looking at the games left on the schedule, it would be a major disappointment if the Illini didn’t get a 13th game this year. My prediction – the Illini will go 4-2 in the second half of the season (I won’t say which are the four and which are the two), and we will get to see the Illini in a bowl game.