And then there were three....

I started following baseball in 1977. With the Texas Rangers victory in this year's ALCS, there are only three teams that I have not seen reach the World Series: the Seattle Mariners, the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals, and you know the other one.

But hey, if you believe the Ricketts calendar, we've only gone one year without a World Series appearance. That's progress!

Illini Football - Midseason Review

The Illini limped into the midpoint of the 2009 season with a 1-5 record – and the one win was against Illinois State. The big topic of discussion was who would succeed Ron Zook as head coach. Thanks to the generosity (or is it the stinginess?) of Ron Guenther, Zook managed to survive another year, but with new coordinators on both sides of the ball and a freshman quarterback, my expectations weren’t too high for 2010. However, despite facing one of the toughest schedules in the country, the Illini have managed a 3-3 start and have given fans reasons for optimism, both for this year and into the future. We have hit the halfway point of the 2010 regular season (“regular” being the key word, I hope), so it’s a good time to take a look at some of the key first-half numbers to see how the Illini have done and where they can get better.

18.5 – Points per Game Allowed by the Illini Defense

Vic Koenning’s schemes, and the way his players have executed them, have allowed the Illini defense to take a quantum leap forward from last year, when they allowed a conference-worst 30.2 points per game. They’ve accomplished this despite having to cover for several injured players in the defensive backfield. Even when facing superior talent, the defense has helped keep the Illini close in every game so far, and they’ve been the biggest reason for the team’s improved play this year.

8 – Turnovers Forced

Amid the well-deserved accolades for the defense, one area in which they haven’t improved is forcing turnovers. In six games, the Illini have forced only eight turnovers, which puts them on the exact pace of last season, when the Illini forced 16 (in 12 games). While it seems like nitpicking, and while some of this may be attributable to the missing defensive starters, it would be nice to see the defense step things up here, creating shorter fields and easier scoring opportunities for the offense in the season’s second half.

21.3 – Points per Game Scored by the Illini Offense

Unfortunately, so far this year Paul Petrino’s new offensive system has not had the same positive impact as Koenning’s new defense. The Illini rank second-to-last in the Big Ten in points per game. One particular problem has been in the red zone. Yes, the Illini have scored on 18 of their 19 red zone possessions this year (the only time they failed to convert was at the end of the Michigan State game), but 9 of those 18 have been field goals. Of course, some of that can be attributed to playing it safe, thanks to having a freshman quarterback running things (see below), but the offense needs to do a better job of finishing drives and not having to settle for so many “threes”.

73.7 – Nathan Scheelhaase’s Quarterback Rating in Illini Losses

When Scheelhaase has struggled, the Illini have struggled along with him – he’s thrown seven interceptions and just one touchdown pass in the three losses. Conversely, when he has passed well the Illini offense has been much more effective – in the three Illini wins, Scheelhaase’s rating is a sparkling 159.8. Like any freshman quarterback, Scheelhaase has had his ups and downs this year, but while he doesn’t have to play like Tony Eason or Jeff George for the Illini to win, we can’t afford to have him emulating Mark Hoekstra or Tim Lavery either. As teams continue to pack the line of scrimmage to stop Mikel Leshoure and the Illini’s powerful running attack, Scheelhaase will have to make enough positive plays with his arm to keep opponents honest.

92.3 – Derek Dimke’s Success Rate on Field Goals

The Illini began 2009 with Matt Eller on field goal duties, and the results were disastrous. Eller made only 4 of the 11 kicks he tried, including missing twice inside 30 yards, and didn’t make a kick longer than 38 yards. Dimke took over for Eller toward the end of the season and made all five of his attempts (including kicks of 48 and 44 yards). He has continued his fine work this year – his combination of accuracy (only one miss in 13 attempts) and strength (2 for 2 on kicks of 50 or more yards) has given this team a potent weapon. (Note – in the interest of fairness, I will say that I’m forever grateful to Matt Eller for this moment).

46.7 – Yards per Punt by Anthony Santella

To me, Santella has been one of the biggest surprises on this year’s team and an underrated factor in their success. He’s the leading punter in the Big Ten, and his net punting average this year (41.1 yards per kick) is higher than his career gross punting average (39.4 yards per kick) entering this season. A punter like Santella can help bail the team out when the offense stagnates and give the Illini an edge in field position battles, which is key when you have a solid defense. But Santella (and Dimke) will both have the same challenge in the second half – when the temperatures start dropping late in the season, the winds pick up and kicking becomes more unpredictable. The two kickers have given the Illini a lift in the first six games; whether they can continue their success will be a big story line in the second half.

57.2 – Penalty Yards per Game

In the last two years, the Illini have finished last (2009) and second-to-last (2008) in the Big Ten in penalty yards per game. This year’s team has improved slightly (to 8th), but penalties have still proven costly to the Illini – not just in losses (especially Ohio State) but also in wins (85 yards in Illini penalties made the Northern Illinois game more difficult than it otherwise should have been). Some teams are good enough to overcome penalties – Michigan State is last in the Big Ten with 73 yards per game, for instance – but Illinois is not at that level yet. The Illini will need to show more discipline in the next six games to make things easier on themselves.

Zero – BCS Top-25 Teams Remaining on the Schedule

During the first six games this year, the Illini faced three teams (Missouri, Ohio State, and Michigan State) currently ranked in the top eleven of the BCS standings. Looking forward, none of the last six opponents appear in the BCS top 25. Our toughest remaining game is probably against Michigan in Ann Arbor – you know, in the stadium where UMass scored 37 points this year. Even though the Illini won’t win every game left on the schedule, they will at least have a legitimate chance to win each week from here on out.

13 – The Number of Games We Hope Illinois Plays This Year

Beginning with the 2006 season, the NCAA has allowed teams to play 12 regular season games instead of 11. Since the rule change took effect, the Illini have only played a 13th game (i.e. a bowl game) once. Considering the way the Illini have played so far in 2010, and looking at the games left on the schedule, it would be a major disappointment if the Illini didn’t get a 13th game this year. My prediction – the Illini will go 4-2 in the second half of the season (I won’t say which are the four and which are the two), and we will get to see the Illini in a bowl game.

It's Quade!

Congratulations, Mike Quade. You've worked your way up the ladder, and now you're a non-interim major league manager - of a team with no number one starter, no first baseman, no second baseman, no leadoff hitter, no bullpen besides Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall, and thanks to the boneheaded decisions made by your boss, no money to fix these problems. Best of luck to you in 2011 - you'll need it.

Safety Blitz? What's That? Bears Don't Know, Lose 23-20

Memo to the Bears' coaching staff:

There's this thing in the NFL called the "safety blitz". It's been around since the 1960's, when Cardinals' safety Larry Wilson started doing it, but it looked like you were unfamiliar with it before today. Even if that's true, you had to have noticed at some point during the game that the Seahawks' safeties kept blitzing and having unobstructed paths to Jay Cutler, which once cost your team a safety and another time knocked you out of field goal range - that's five points left on the table in a game you lost 23-20. Did it ever occur to anyone on the Bears' sidelines to do something to prevent this from happening, like making some type of adjustment in play calling or blocking schemes?

With the Packers losing today, this loss represents a major missed opportunity to create a little breathing room in the division race, and if the Bears can't win this game at home, it makes me wonder what games they can win the rest of the year.

Bears Find Team With Worse QB Than Theirs, Win 23-6

That's it, Todd Collins. I've stood up for you not once, but twice, and this is how you repay me? A 6.3 QB rating? An interception at the goal line, plus three other INTs? All this after an 8.1 rating last week? You know it's bad when your team has the ball at the 40 yard line, with just under two minutes left in the first half, and they're content to run out the clock (huddling up and calling slow-developing run plays) rather than risk having the QB throwing it down the field to try to put points on the board. So go find some other blogger to write good things about you, Todd Collins.

So how does a team with a starting QB with a 6.3 rating win? Playing a team whose starting QB has a 29.7 rating helps. So does rediscovering your running game at an opportune time (thank you, Matt Forte, for producing more yards rushing (166) than Carolina's entire offense (147)). And of course, the defense was outstanding again, forcing three turnovers and never letting it feel like Carolina was in the game, even with a lead of only 17-6 in the 4th quarter.

All in all, a grind-it-out win against a vastly inferior opponent still counts, and with the Packers losing in Washington (and losing their All-Pro QB to a concussion as well), the Bears are back on top of the NFC North. It would be nice to have Jay Cutler back next Sunday (and by the way, after today's display, I hope no one complains about Cutler again this year), because if the Bears continue to run the ball as well as they did today, a healthy Cutler will make for an explosive offense. Maybe the Bears will not only be a first place team, they'll even look like a first-place team too.

There's a First Time for Everything - Including a Win at Penn State

Oskee-wow-wow! It's always fun to spoil someone else's homecoming game, as the Illini did by throttling Penn State 33-13 for their first ever win in Happy Valley on Saturday. A couple of weeks ago, I was wondering where the Illini would find a 6th win to become bowl-eligible, and even with Penn State struggling, I still didn't expect that this would be the game.

I've been very impressed with the defense so far this year and how even in the two losses, they've kept the game close to the very end. Today they continued their strong play - Penn State's points came off of one big play and two mishandled punt returns. So the defense playing well wasn't surprising. The offense, on the other hand, was a surprise, because Penn State had been playing well on defense. But the Illini piled up more yards rushing (280) then Penn State had altogether (234). And if Nathan Scheelhaase continues to throw the ball as well as he did today (and as he did previously against SIU), the offense's balance and firepower will be a nightmare for opposing defenses to stop.

As much fun as this one was, I'm not quite ready to drink the orange Kool-Aid. This team has yet to show how it reacts in a game when it's supposed to win, and some of the "pushovers" on our schedule have the ability to push back. But still, it's nice to know that if this team takes care of business and wins the games they're supposed to win, Illini fans will definitely have a bowl game of some sort to look forward to.

Is This The Year?

llinois has never won at Happy Valley. In fact, the only time Illinois has ever beaten Penn St. away from Champaign was in 1960, in Cleveland, by a score of 10-8. (Fun fact - if you check out the Illini roster for that game, you'll see that Jesse Louis Jackson, Sr. apparently played for the Illini that day).

Anyway, considering that both teams play pretty good defense (Illinois 18 PPG against, 5th in the Big 10; Penn St. 15 PPG against, 3rd in the Big 10), and that both teams have struggled on offense (Illinois 9th in the Big 10 with 22.3 PPG; Penn St. last with 19.2 PPG), another 10-8 score isn't out of the question. The problem is that the Illini have been so one-dimensional on offense that unless Scheelhaase steps up in the passing game (as he did against SIU), we'll continue to struggle as teams gear up for the run. I see another close game (like OSU), but again, I'm afraid that turnovers and/or stupid penalties will bite us. Our first win in Happy Valley will have to wait.

Prediction - Penn St. 17, Illinois 9

The Bears Are Doomed...DOOMED!

Well, that's an onion in the ointment. I guess when you absorb nine sacks in one half, it does affect your ability to play football the following week. My sanguine outlook on the Bears' season rested on having a healthy Jay Cutler at QB. But without him, and without any semblance of a running attack so far this year, and without any demonstrated ability to pass-protect, and with a 38 year old starting at QB instead of the more mobile Cutler, the "soft" part of the schedule I've been touting suddenly looks a lot more difficult.

In any event, we'll soon see if my slightly positive review of the Todd Collins signing was on the money or not. Collins didn't look so hot against the Giants on Sunday, but by the time he entered the game the Giants were completely ignoring the Bears' running game (note - so were the Bears) and teeing off on their passing game. For what it's worth, he does have experience, which is more than the other potential backups they had in training camp brought to the table. It's worth noting that the Bears were apparently so desperate for a QB this week that they brought in former Illini QB Juice Williams in for a look-see. Now, Williams was a good player for the Illini (sometimes better than good), but unless they're looking at him as the second coming of Bobby Douglass, I can't imagine him having any future as an NFL QB.

Back to this week's game - is it possible to win an NFL game with neither a passing game nor a running game? The Bears will have to do something positive on the ground to take the pressure off of Collins. Some big special teams plays would be nice too, and it wouldn't hurt to have the defense force a few turnovers, especially in the red zone - and I mean the Panthers' red zone, not the Bears' red zone. Basically, the Bears are going to have to win this one without any offense, just like in the Abe Gibron era. And the 0-4 Panthers may be just the opponent that makes this possible. I'll be having this guy over to my house on Sunday, but if the Bears lose I may have to ban him for the rest of the year.

Prediction: Bears 16, Panthers 10

Your First Place Chicago Bears?

Lovie Smith: "We get off the bus running."

Jay Cutler, Todd Collins, and Caleb Hanie: "We get off the bus running...for our lives."

To Lovie's credit, he hasn't been rehashing that quote as much this year, although I wouldn't be surprised to hear his QBs saying the second quote. Especially after Sunday night's 17-3 loss to the Giants, in which the Bears allowed nine sacks in the first half alone and saw Jay Cutler miss the second half after suffering a concussion. Unlike the win in Dallas, when they shifted offensive linemen around and switched to a shorter drop to counteract the pressure, the Bears had no answer for the Giants' pass rush. And with no running game to speak of, the Giants were able to tee off even more on the helpless QBs, as both Cutler and Collins were sent to the sidelines during the game. I give the defense credit - they held their ground as long as they could, but they got absolutely no help from the offense. On the night, the Bears could only conjure up 103 yards of offense and those three points, which came after a turnover set the offense up at the Giants' 29 yard line. I suspect you won't find many games in which a team has the same number of forced turnovers and points.

As bad as this game was, the Bears are still in first place in the division with a 3-1 record, with the softer part of the schedule on tap. But we'll have to spend the week wondering if Jay Cutler is going to be cleared to play. And whether or not Cutler plays next week in Charlotte against the 0-4 Panthers, it would be nice to get some help from the offensive line and the running game. But if the Bears haven't been able to run the ball effectively against the Giants, Packers, or Lions, all of whom rank in the bottom half of the NFL in rushing yards per game allowed so far this year, when will they be able to run the ball?

Missed Opportunity

It's not every day that a huge underdog has a chance to beat the second-ranked team in the country, but the Illini had that chance on Saturday, hanging in against the Buckeyes before a late 4th quarter TD sealed a 24-13 Illini loss. I'm going to gloss over the fact that the Illini were unable to take advantage of the Buckeyes after knocking Heisman Trophy candidate Terrelle Pryor from the game. Instead, I'm looking at that 4th quarter.

After the Buckeyes kicked a field goal to make the score 17-10, the Illini responded with a 67-yard drive that stalled inside the OSU 15 yard line, and the Illini settled for a field goal, even though they would still need a TD to win, to make it 17-13. I'm not even going to complain about that decision, because it sounds like a second-guess. Besides, if the Illini defense could hold one more time, the offense could get the ball back with a shot to pull off the upset. But here's how things unfolded:

• A 15-yard personal foul penalty on the ensuing kick return gave OSU the ball near midfield.
• After allowing one first down, the Illini stopped the Buckeyes on a third down, which would have given them another possession, but on the play Justin Green lined up offside to give the Buckeyes a first down.
• The Buckeyes went on to score the clinching TD.

The offisde penalty was particularly galling. On the radio call, Kurt Kittner called it a "stupid penalty", especially because Green was lined up right in front of the Illini bench and none of the coaches moved him back. So once again, penalties killed the Illini (nine for 74 yards, including the two crucial ones I mentioned), and the poorly-coached, undisciplined Illini missed their chance to score a major upset. The good news: if the Illini play this way against Penn State (which looked helpless against Iowa last night), this team might be able to overcome itself and win.

A College Football Parable

One of the characters in this video represents Ohio State's football team; another represents the Illini. Can you guess which is which?



Yes, Illinois did upset Ohio St. in 2007, but there are a couple of big differences between that year's team and this year's team. First, the '07 Illini team had already beaten two ranked teams (Penn State and Wisconsin); this year's team has a six-point win over Northern Illinois as its only win over an FBS opponent so far. Second, the '07 game was in Columbus, where the Illini have won five times since 1991, the last time the Illini beat the Buckeyes in Champaign, where Saturday's game will be played.

Most oddsmakers have the Illini as a 17 or 18 point underdog for Saturday, and even that seems generous toward the Orange and Blue. The best thing that could come out of Saturday's game is for the team to avoid major injuries and to not get too discouraged. Next weekend's opponent (Penn State) looked vulnerable against Temple's rushing game last week (156 yards), which means Illinois might have a chance against the Nittany Lions, even in Happy Valley.

Prediction: Ohio State 42, Illinois 6

90 Losses? Think Again!

Congratulations are in order for the Chicago Cubs. By virtue of their 1-0 win over the Padres on Thursday, they've proven that it's possible to have the highest payroll in the National League and not lose 90 games.

There is one positive note about the Cubs taking 3 of 4 from the Padres. Mike Quade now has a 22-12 record (15-4 on the road) since assuming the managerial duties. While most of these wins have come by a team not playing for anything at the expense of teams that were not playing for anything, this series was different. Going into San Diego, where the Padres were fighting for their playoff lives, and playing this well is a more impressive feat.

And if you thought the positive note was going to be something about revenge for the 1984 NLCS, let me put it this way. First of all, that was 26 years ago - I'd guess that most of the guys who are playing now (and probably a significant portion of fans) aren't old enough to even remember that series. It would be like saying that the Arizona Cardinals' 2008 NFC Championship Game win over the Philadelphia Eagles was revenge for the Eagles' win over the Chicago Cardinals in the 1948 NFL Championship Game. Second, a fifth-place team pushing the Padres to the brink of elimination doesn't even come close to making up for the 1984 Padres stealing the Cubs' World Series spot. It would only be true revenge if by winning these games, the Cubs took the Padres' playoff spot and then went on to the World Series from there - but it looks like we won't have to worry about that possibility for several years.