It Was (Almost) Twenty Years Ago Today...

The big question for the Fighting Illini football team this week is whether they will finish it as the third or the fourth best college football team in the state. Yes, right now I'd put U of I third of the three FBS teams - in the 2000s, Northern Illinois has 68 wins and 4 bowl bids; Northwestern has 62 wins and 5 bowl bids; Illinois has 45 wins and 2 bowl bids (yes, they're both BCS bowls, but there are no others). Southern Illinois, Saturday's Illini opponent, may be an FCS team, but they're no pushover, with seven straight seasons of nine or more wins. It's typical Illini luck that Ron Guenther finally schedules a pre-season game against a non-FBS opponent, and they come into the game ranked #2 in the FCS poll the week we play them. At least the game's not in Carbondale, so I guess that counts as progress. However, even with the home crowd, we can't presume a win for the Illini, especially since this will be like SIU's Super Bowl (much like Bradley's shot at the U of I basketball team last November, and remember how that turned out).

It's hard to draw conclusions based on the one game each team has played so far, particularly since SIU's was a 70-7 thrashing of Quincy. Oh, wait, it was the NAIA team, not that Quincy. But looking back at the last couple of years, one worrisome pattern has emerged that would favor SIU, and not the Illini - turnovers. I know it's a cliche to talk about turnovers, but in the last two seasons, SIU has been +8 and +17 in turnover margin, while the Illini have been -6 and -4. We saw what Scheelhaase did against Missouri in the second half, so we have to hope that he doesn't have to win the game for us, meaning he'll need a big dose of help from the running game.

Therefore, it's fitting that Saturday's game will mark the (almost) 20-year anniversary of Howard Griffith's record eight-TD performance against, yes, SIU (I was at that game - wow, am I getting old). Illinois will have to follow that script and pound the ball on the ground, keeping the pressure off Scheelhaase and (knock on wood) minimizing turnovers. I'm seeing a close game, but the home crowd will be abuzz from the celebration of Griffith's achievement (and abuzz from a full day of tailgating) and that should help to pull us through this one with our first win of the season.

Prediction - Illinois 31, SIU 24.