One for the History Books

Under Bruce Weber, the Illini have suffered some huge embarrassments, like losing at home to Tennessee State during the 2007-08 season, or the back-to-back losses against Utah and Bradley last season that ultimately cost the team an NCAA tournament bid. And with yesterday's abomination against UIC, it looks like Weber has now established the "loss to a crappy mid-major team" as an annual tradition (similar to Ron Zook's "pi$$ing away a home game against a vastly inferior opponent" annual tradition).

So how bad was the UIC loss? Let's look at it with Ken Pomeroy's rankings. Coming into the UIC game, the Illini were ranked #12 in Pomeroy's system, while the Flames were ranked #224, for a ranking differential of 212 places (the system gave the Flames a 2% chance of beating the Illini). As for some other bad Illini losses in the Weber era, I don't have a way to check the comparative rankings coming into the games, but I can compare the season-ending rankings of the Illini and their various mid-major conquerors:

The 2009-10 Utah Utes finished #114 in Pomeroy's system, while Bradley finished #125; the Illini finished #53 last year. Not too bad in terms of ranking differential (as long as you don't dwell on that "missing the NCAA tournament" thing).

The 2007-08 Tennessee State Tigers finished the year ranked #227 in Pomeroy's system; that season's Illini team finished #40, for a differential of 187.

It's hard to believe that the Illini could "top" the embarrassment of the Tennessee State loss, but in terms of Pomeroy ranking differential, the UIC loss was actually worse (which makes sense considering that the 07-08 Illini team finished with a losing record and near the bottom of the Big 10, while this year's Illini entered the UIC game as a top-fifteen team with designs on competing for the Big 10 title). It will be interesting to see how far the Illini drop in Pomeroy's system as a result of losing to a team outside the top 200. And while this one probably won't cost the team an NCAA tournament bid (like last year's twin losses in Vegas did), it will certainly knock them down a line or two when it comes to their seeding, which will make it that much more difficult for them to get to the second weekend of the tournament.

Bruce Weber's Fighting Illini - continuing to make the unthinkable thinkable.

We Got Wood - Again!

Jim Hendry made a great move by signing Kerry Wood. Since the Ricketts family purchased that time machine, I'm assuming that the Cubs will be using it to bring back the 2003 version of Wood to be the number one starter they need, and that....I'm sorry, what did you say? The Cubs don't have access to a time machine? So you're telling me that the Cubs will be getting the 2011 version of Kerry Wood - a middle reliever who'll pitch about 70 innings next year, and not a staff ace. Well, that's not really going to help them make up 16 games in the standings next year, is it? In fact, if I were cynical, I'd say this is just a ploy by Jim Hendry - sign a popular former Cub to try to distract the fans from how bad the team is going to be in 2011. Oh, wait, I am a cynic, so that's exactly what I'm saying.

EDIT - it looks like the Cubs made a pretty good deal here: one year, $1.5 million. Especially when you consider that next year they'll be paying $4.8 million to John Grabow and $3.5 million to Jeff Samardzija to be much, much worse that Wood. But it still won't transform the Cubs into a good team, and it probably won't even make them into a mediocre team.

A Smart Move by Jim Hendry?

Yes, I do think the Carlos Pena signing was a good one. Some people will negatively obsess over his .196 batting average in 2010, but he also had 28 HR, 84 RBI, and 87 walks, which would have led the Cubs in all three categories. It's interesting to compare the two Chicago first basemen, the other of whom just signed a three-year contract for more money than Pena received.

Pena (career): .351 OBP, .490 SLG, 123 OPS+, 33 years old.

Konerko (career): .356 OBP, .498 SLG, 119 OPS+, 35 years old.

Pena bats left-handed, is a pretty good fielder, and the one-year contract doesn't handcuff the Cubs beyond the 2011 season. So if the team stinks (which they will) and he bounces back to his 2007-09 levels, he'll be a good trading chip. If he's no good, you can easily say good-bye to him at the end of the year and go after a bigger fish when you'll have more money to spend next offseason.

Kudos to you, Jim Hendry, and keep up the (relatively) good work!

R.I.P. #10

Goodbye to the only man who may have been more frustrated by watching the 2009-2010 Cubs than I was. Bill James has written that if he were in charge of the Hall of Fame selections, Ron Santo would be the first player he'd put in, yet neither the baseball writers nor the Veterans Committee believed that a third baseman with nine All-Star game appearances, five Gold Gloves, and a career OPS+ of 125 was worthy of induction into the Hall of Fame.  It would have been nice for them to put him into the Hall while was still alive to enjoy it, because he really did deserve it.

Adam Dunn Comes to Chicago!

The White Sox have signed Adam Dunn and may still have enough money left to re-sign Paul Konerko. Apparently, the Sox can afford two first basemen, but the Cubs can't afford any. But fear not, fellow Cubs fans - Jeff Baker is coming back! And Koyie Hill (32 years old next year; career OPS+ 49) wasn't non-tendered, so he might be back too!

2011 Cubs Baseball - Feel the Excitement (TM)!

Another MVP in the NL Central

Joey Votto won the NL MVP award today, beating out another NL Central first baseman who's won a few MVP awards. Throw in the king-sized Prince of Milwaukee, who's had a couple of MVP-caliber seasons himself and is only 26 years old, and there's quite a collection of first basemen in the NL Central.

Oh, and then there are the Cubs, who have a payroll of over $100 million committed for next year but don't have anything resembling a first baseman on their roster right now. But don't worry, Cubs fans, because we still have Jim Hendry as our GM, and he'll find a way to...what's that? The new ownership is not adding payroll next year? Great, so now the Cubs won't have anything resembling a major league first baseman on their Opening Day roster either. Fifth place, here we come again!

We're Number One (in the State)!

First Southern Illinois, then Northern Illinois, and now the NUrds ("Chicago's Big Ten Team", my a$$). If nothing else, the Illini can lay claim to being the best team in the state of Illinois this year, and as a result we truly deserve the Land of Lincoln Trophy. Just don't let Zook get another contract extension based on it.

And after two losing seasons, it's going to feel good to do this again...

Former Cubs Second Baseman Gets Minor League Manager Job in Phillies Organization

Seriously - after everyone got their underwear in a bunch about this, where's all the outrage over this story?

Illinois Loses at Home to a Team that Lost to South Dakota

Wow, did this one have Ron Zook's fingerprints all over it:

Stupid penalties? Check.

Stupid/gutless play-calling? Check.

Poor use of timeouts? Check.

Letting the worst offense in the Big Ten go 80 yards into the wind in two minutes for the game-winning touchdown? Well, that's a new one, I guess.

Another winnable home game pi$$ed away? Check.

Yet another season without a bowl game? Check, and mate.

'Cause it's a Big...House: Illinois-Michigan Preview and Prediction

With our obligatory Commodores reference out of the way...

It’s a battle for bowl eligibility in Ann Arbor on Saturday. At game’s end, either the 5-3 Illini or the 5-3 Michigan Wolverines will have earned a 6th win and the right to play a 13th game this year. Even though both teams have identical records, they are currently going in opposite directions. Imagine the two teams are in a shopping mall: Illinois, with back-to-back blowout wins, would be on the “up” escalator; while Michigan, with three straight losses, would be right next to the Illini, but on the adjacent “down” escalator. As a historical note, the Illini will also be striving for a third consecutive win over Michigan, which hasn’t happened since the Orange and Blue won four straight over the Maize and Blue from 1950 to 1953.
When Michigan has the Football
Two words – Denard Robinson.
OK, that’s not much of a write-up, so I’ll continue. Michigan’s quarterback is leading the Big Ten in total rushing yards and is second in the nation in rushing yards per game (160.88). When he’s not running wild on opposing defenses, he’s also found time to pass for 188.6 yards per game. While Michigan’s three-game losing streak has slowed the “Denard Robinson for Heisman Trophy” bandwagon, he’s still a very dangerous player, and the Illini defense hasn’t encountered a two-way threat of his caliber yet this year. Thanks largely to Robinson, the Michigan offense has been a force, averaging over 35 points per game, good for 19th in the nation. Aside from a 17-point effort against Michigan State, they’ve scored at least 28 points in every game this year. Vic Koenning’s defense enters Saturday ranked 12th in the nation in scoring defense (16.8 points per game), but their run of strong performances will be put to the test.
When Illinois has the Football

It’s a good thing for Michigan that their offense is so good, because their defense is awful. It’s true that the Wolverines have battled injuries this year, especially in the secondary, but even accounting for that they’ve been awful. Michigan is 10th in the Big Ten in scoring defense (30 points per game); last week, Penn State, which looked toothless in scoring only 13 points against the Illini, scored 41 points against Michigan. In other words, this is a bad time for the Wolverines to be facing a red-hot offense. The Illini are coming off their best offensive showing of the year in the win over Purdue, and Michigan may not be the only team in Saturday’s game that boasts a two-way threat at quarterback. Last week, Purdue focused on stopping Mikel Leshoure, and they did hold him to 23 yards rushing. However, Nathan Scheelhaase foiled that strategy by having the best game of his young career, totaling 118 yards rushing and 195 yards (and 4 TDs) passing. You can sense that Scheelhaase, the reigning Big Ten Offensive Player of the Week, is growing more and more comfortable running the offense as the season progresses, and that Paul Petrino is showing increased confidence in Scheelhaase by opening up the offense for him. And if UMass was able to hang 37 points on the Wolverine defense in the Big House earlier this year, we might be looking at another banner game for the Illini offense this week.
Prediction
The Wolverines have been installed as 3-point favorites in Saturday’s game. I have a feeling that if the names on the jerseys were erased, the IlIini might be favored (it would certainly help perceptions if our last three-game win streak against Michigan hadn’t started during the Truman administration). A glance at the rest of Michigan’s schedule, with heavyweights Wisconsin and Ohio State looming, shows that Michigan really needs to win on Saturday. While a loss to the Illini wouldn’t be fatal to their bowl hopes – they could still get a 6th win against Purdue next week – a 6-6 record on the heels of last year’s season-ending collapse, coupled with more NCAA troubles, might lead to the end of Rich Rodriguez’s tenure as Michigan coach (on the plus side, with a 6-6 record it would be a short trip for Michigan fans to see their team play in the Little Caesar’s Pizza Bowl in Detroit). All this is a roundabout way of saying that I think the Wolverines are backed into a corner and will give us everything they have. But looking objectively at the two teams and how they’ve played recently, I also think that the Illini should be able to put enough points on the board to overcome whatever damage Michigan’s offense is able to inflict on the Illini D. Bowl eligibility, here we come!

Illinois 33
Michigan 24

And then there were three....

I started following baseball in 1977. With the Texas Rangers victory in this year's ALCS, there are only three teams that I have not seen reach the World Series: the Seattle Mariners, the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals, and you know the other one.

But hey, if you believe the Ricketts calendar, we've only gone one year without a World Series appearance. That's progress!

Illini Football - Midseason Review

The Illini limped into the midpoint of the 2009 season with a 1-5 record – and the one win was against Illinois State. The big topic of discussion was who would succeed Ron Zook as head coach. Thanks to the generosity (or is it the stinginess?) of Ron Guenther, Zook managed to survive another year, but with new coordinators on both sides of the ball and a freshman quarterback, my expectations weren’t too high for 2010. However, despite facing one of the toughest schedules in the country, the Illini have managed a 3-3 start and have given fans reasons for optimism, both for this year and into the future. We have hit the halfway point of the 2010 regular season (“regular” being the key word, I hope), so it’s a good time to take a look at some of the key first-half numbers to see how the Illini have done and where they can get better.

18.5 – Points per Game Allowed by the Illini Defense

Vic Koenning’s schemes, and the way his players have executed them, have allowed the Illini defense to take a quantum leap forward from last year, when they allowed a conference-worst 30.2 points per game. They’ve accomplished this despite having to cover for several injured players in the defensive backfield. Even when facing superior talent, the defense has helped keep the Illini close in every game so far, and they’ve been the biggest reason for the team’s improved play this year.

8 – Turnovers Forced

Amid the well-deserved accolades for the defense, one area in which they haven’t improved is forcing turnovers. In six games, the Illini have forced only eight turnovers, which puts them on the exact pace of last season, when the Illini forced 16 (in 12 games). While it seems like nitpicking, and while some of this may be attributable to the missing defensive starters, it would be nice to see the defense step things up here, creating shorter fields and easier scoring opportunities for the offense in the season’s second half.

21.3 – Points per Game Scored by the Illini Offense

Unfortunately, so far this year Paul Petrino’s new offensive system has not had the same positive impact as Koenning’s new defense. The Illini rank second-to-last in the Big Ten in points per game. One particular problem has been in the red zone. Yes, the Illini have scored on 18 of their 19 red zone possessions this year (the only time they failed to convert was at the end of the Michigan State game), but 9 of those 18 have been field goals. Of course, some of that can be attributed to playing it safe, thanks to having a freshman quarterback running things (see below), but the offense needs to do a better job of finishing drives and not having to settle for so many “threes”.

73.7 – Nathan Scheelhaase’s Quarterback Rating in Illini Losses

When Scheelhaase has struggled, the Illini have struggled along with him – he’s thrown seven interceptions and just one touchdown pass in the three losses. Conversely, when he has passed well the Illini offense has been much more effective – in the three Illini wins, Scheelhaase’s rating is a sparkling 159.8. Like any freshman quarterback, Scheelhaase has had his ups and downs this year, but while he doesn’t have to play like Tony Eason or Jeff George for the Illini to win, we can’t afford to have him emulating Mark Hoekstra or Tim Lavery either. As teams continue to pack the line of scrimmage to stop Mikel Leshoure and the Illini’s powerful running attack, Scheelhaase will have to make enough positive plays with his arm to keep opponents honest.

92.3 – Derek Dimke’s Success Rate on Field Goals

The Illini began 2009 with Matt Eller on field goal duties, and the results were disastrous. Eller made only 4 of the 11 kicks he tried, including missing twice inside 30 yards, and didn’t make a kick longer than 38 yards. Dimke took over for Eller toward the end of the season and made all five of his attempts (including kicks of 48 and 44 yards). He has continued his fine work this year – his combination of accuracy (only one miss in 13 attempts) and strength (2 for 2 on kicks of 50 or more yards) has given this team a potent weapon. (Note – in the interest of fairness, I will say that I’m forever grateful to Matt Eller for this moment).

46.7 – Yards per Punt by Anthony Santella

To me, Santella has been one of the biggest surprises on this year’s team and an underrated factor in their success. He’s the leading punter in the Big Ten, and his net punting average this year (41.1 yards per kick) is higher than his career gross punting average (39.4 yards per kick) entering this season. A punter like Santella can help bail the team out when the offense stagnates and give the Illini an edge in field position battles, which is key when you have a solid defense. But Santella (and Dimke) will both have the same challenge in the second half – when the temperatures start dropping late in the season, the winds pick up and kicking becomes more unpredictable. The two kickers have given the Illini a lift in the first six games; whether they can continue their success will be a big story line in the second half.

57.2 – Penalty Yards per Game

In the last two years, the Illini have finished last (2009) and second-to-last (2008) in the Big Ten in penalty yards per game. This year’s team has improved slightly (to 8th), but penalties have still proven costly to the Illini – not just in losses (especially Ohio State) but also in wins (85 yards in Illini penalties made the Northern Illinois game more difficult than it otherwise should have been). Some teams are good enough to overcome penalties – Michigan State is last in the Big Ten with 73 yards per game, for instance – but Illinois is not at that level yet. The Illini will need to show more discipline in the next six games to make things easier on themselves.

Zero – BCS Top-25 Teams Remaining on the Schedule

During the first six games this year, the Illini faced three teams (Missouri, Ohio State, and Michigan State) currently ranked in the top eleven of the BCS standings. Looking forward, none of the last six opponents appear in the BCS top 25. Our toughest remaining game is probably against Michigan in Ann Arbor – you know, in the stadium where UMass scored 37 points this year. Even though the Illini won’t win every game left on the schedule, they will at least have a legitimate chance to win each week from here on out.

13 – The Number of Games We Hope Illinois Plays This Year

Beginning with the 2006 season, the NCAA has allowed teams to play 12 regular season games instead of 11. Since the rule change took effect, the Illini have only played a 13th game (i.e. a bowl game) once. Considering the way the Illini have played so far in 2010, and looking at the games left on the schedule, it would be a major disappointment if the Illini didn’t get a 13th game this year. My prediction – the Illini will go 4-2 in the second half of the season (I won’t say which are the four and which are the two), and we will get to see the Illini in a bowl game.

It's Quade!

Congratulations, Mike Quade. You've worked your way up the ladder, and now you're a non-interim major league manager - of a team with no number one starter, no first baseman, no second baseman, no leadoff hitter, no bullpen besides Carlos Marmol and Sean Marshall, and thanks to the boneheaded decisions made by your boss, no money to fix these problems. Best of luck to you in 2011 - you'll need it.

Safety Blitz? What's That? Bears Don't Know, Lose 23-20

Memo to the Bears' coaching staff:

There's this thing in the NFL called the "safety blitz". It's been around since the 1960's, when Cardinals' safety Larry Wilson started doing it, but it looked like you were unfamiliar with it before today. Even if that's true, you had to have noticed at some point during the game that the Seahawks' safeties kept blitzing and having unobstructed paths to Jay Cutler, which once cost your team a safety and another time knocked you out of field goal range - that's five points left on the table in a game you lost 23-20. Did it ever occur to anyone on the Bears' sidelines to do something to prevent this from happening, like making some type of adjustment in play calling or blocking schemes?

With the Packers losing today, this loss represents a major missed opportunity to create a little breathing room in the division race, and if the Bears can't win this game at home, it makes me wonder what games they can win the rest of the year.

Bears Find Team With Worse QB Than Theirs, Win 23-6

That's it, Todd Collins. I've stood up for you not once, but twice, and this is how you repay me? A 6.3 QB rating? An interception at the goal line, plus three other INTs? All this after an 8.1 rating last week? You know it's bad when your team has the ball at the 40 yard line, with just under two minutes left in the first half, and they're content to run out the clock (huddling up and calling slow-developing run plays) rather than risk having the QB throwing it down the field to try to put points on the board. So go find some other blogger to write good things about you, Todd Collins.

So how does a team with a starting QB with a 6.3 rating win? Playing a team whose starting QB has a 29.7 rating helps. So does rediscovering your running game at an opportune time (thank you, Matt Forte, for producing more yards rushing (166) than Carolina's entire offense (147)). And of course, the defense was outstanding again, forcing three turnovers and never letting it feel like Carolina was in the game, even with a lead of only 17-6 in the 4th quarter.

All in all, a grind-it-out win against a vastly inferior opponent still counts, and with the Packers losing in Washington (and losing their All-Pro QB to a concussion as well), the Bears are back on top of the NFC North. It would be nice to have Jay Cutler back next Sunday (and by the way, after today's display, I hope no one complains about Cutler again this year), because if the Bears continue to run the ball as well as they did today, a healthy Cutler will make for an explosive offense. Maybe the Bears will not only be a first place team, they'll even look like a first-place team too.

There's a First Time for Everything - Including a Win at Penn State

Oskee-wow-wow! It's always fun to spoil someone else's homecoming game, as the Illini did by throttling Penn State 33-13 for their first ever win in Happy Valley on Saturday. A couple of weeks ago, I was wondering where the Illini would find a 6th win to become bowl-eligible, and even with Penn State struggling, I still didn't expect that this would be the game.

I've been very impressed with the defense so far this year and how even in the two losses, they've kept the game close to the very end. Today they continued their strong play - Penn State's points came off of one big play and two mishandled punt returns. So the defense playing well wasn't surprising. The offense, on the other hand, was a surprise, because Penn State had been playing well on defense. But the Illini piled up more yards rushing (280) then Penn State had altogether (234). And if Nathan Scheelhaase continues to throw the ball as well as he did today (and as he did previously against SIU), the offense's balance and firepower will be a nightmare for opposing defenses to stop.

As much fun as this one was, I'm not quite ready to drink the orange Kool-Aid. This team has yet to show how it reacts in a game when it's supposed to win, and some of the "pushovers" on our schedule have the ability to push back. But still, it's nice to know that if this team takes care of business and wins the games they're supposed to win, Illini fans will definitely have a bowl game of some sort to look forward to.

Is This The Year?

llinois has never won at Happy Valley. In fact, the only time Illinois has ever beaten Penn St. away from Champaign was in 1960, in Cleveland, by a score of 10-8. (Fun fact - if you check out the Illini roster for that game, you'll see that Jesse Louis Jackson, Sr. apparently played for the Illini that day).

Anyway, considering that both teams play pretty good defense (Illinois 18 PPG against, 5th in the Big 10; Penn St. 15 PPG against, 3rd in the Big 10), and that both teams have struggled on offense (Illinois 9th in the Big 10 with 22.3 PPG; Penn St. last with 19.2 PPG), another 10-8 score isn't out of the question. The problem is that the Illini have been so one-dimensional on offense that unless Scheelhaase steps up in the passing game (as he did against SIU), we'll continue to struggle as teams gear up for the run. I see another close game (like OSU), but again, I'm afraid that turnovers and/or stupid penalties will bite us. Our first win in Happy Valley will have to wait.

Prediction - Penn St. 17, Illinois 9

The Bears Are Doomed...DOOMED!

Well, that's an onion in the ointment. I guess when you absorb nine sacks in one half, it does affect your ability to play football the following week. My sanguine outlook on the Bears' season rested on having a healthy Jay Cutler at QB. But without him, and without any semblance of a running attack so far this year, and without any demonstrated ability to pass-protect, and with a 38 year old starting at QB instead of the more mobile Cutler, the "soft" part of the schedule I've been touting suddenly looks a lot more difficult.

In any event, we'll soon see if my slightly positive review of the Todd Collins signing was on the money or not. Collins didn't look so hot against the Giants on Sunday, but by the time he entered the game the Giants were completely ignoring the Bears' running game (note - so were the Bears) and teeing off on their passing game. For what it's worth, he does have experience, which is more than the other potential backups they had in training camp brought to the table. It's worth noting that the Bears were apparently so desperate for a QB this week that they brought in former Illini QB Juice Williams in for a look-see. Now, Williams was a good player for the Illini (sometimes better than good), but unless they're looking at him as the second coming of Bobby Douglass, I can't imagine him having any future as an NFL QB.

Back to this week's game - is it possible to win an NFL game with neither a passing game nor a running game? The Bears will have to do something positive on the ground to take the pressure off of Collins. Some big special teams plays would be nice too, and it wouldn't hurt to have the defense force a few turnovers, especially in the red zone - and I mean the Panthers' red zone, not the Bears' red zone. Basically, the Bears are going to have to win this one without any offense, just like in the Abe Gibron era. And the 0-4 Panthers may be just the opponent that makes this possible. I'll be having this guy over to my house on Sunday, but if the Bears lose I may have to ban him for the rest of the year.

Prediction: Bears 16, Panthers 10

Your First Place Chicago Bears?

Lovie Smith: "We get off the bus running."

Jay Cutler, Todd Collins, and Caleb Hanie: "We get off the bus running...for our lives."

To Lovie's credit, he hasn't been rehashing that quote as much this year, although I wouldn't be surprised to hear his QBs saying the second quote. Especially after Sunday night's 17-3 loss to the Giants, in which the Bears allowed nine sacks in the first half alone and saw Jay Cutler miss the second half after suffering a concussion. Unlike the win in Dallas, when they shifted offensive linemen around and switched to a shorter drop to counteract the pressure, the Bears had no answer for the Giants' pass rush. And with no running game to speak of, the Giants were able to tee off even more on the helpless QBs, as both Cutler and Collins were sent to the sidelines during the game. I give the defense credit - they held their ground as long as they could, but they got absolutely no help from the offense. On the night, the Bears could only conjure up 103 yards of offense and those three points, which came after a turnover set the offense up at the Giants' 29 yard line. I suspect you won't find many games in which a team has the same number of forced turnovers and points.

As bad as this game was, the Bears are still in first place in the division with a 3-1 record, with the softer part of the schedule on tap. But we'll have to spend the week wondering if Jay Cutler is going to be cleared to play. And whether or not Cutler plays next week in Charlotte against the 0-4 Panthers, it would be nice to get some help from the offensive line and the running game. But if the Bears haven't been able to run the ball effectively against the Giants, Packers, or Lions, all of whom rank in the bottom half of the NFL in rushing yards per game allowed so far this year, when will they be able to run the ball?

Missed Opportunity

It's not every day that a huge underdog has a chance to beat the second-ranked team in the country, but the Illini had that chance on Saturday, hanging in against the Buckeyes before a late 4th quarter TD sealed a 24-13 Illini loss. I'm going to gloss over the fact that the Illini were unable to take advantage of the Buckeyes after knocking Heisman Trophy candidate Terrelle Pryor from the game. Instead, I'm looking at that 4th quarter.

After the Buckeyes kicked a field goal to make the score 17-10, the Illini responded with a 67-yard drive that stalled inside the OSU 15 yard line, and the Illini settled for a field goal, even though they would still need a TD to win, to make it 17-13. I'm not even going to complain about that decision, because it sounds like a second-guess. Besides, if the Illini defense could hold one more time, the offense could get the ball back with a shot to pull off the upset. But here's how things unfolded:

• A 15-yard personal foul penalty on the ensuing kick return gave OSU the ball near midfield.
• After allowing one first down, the Illini stopped the Buckeyes on a third down, which would have given them another possession, but on the play Justin Green lined up offside to give the Buckeyes a first down.
• The Buckeyes went on to score the clinching TD.

The offisde penalty was particularly galling. On the radio call, Kurt Kittner called it a "stupid penalty", especially because Green was lined up right in front of the Illini bench and none of the coaches moved him back. So once again, penalties killed the Illini (nine for 74 yards, including the two crucial ones I mentioned), and the poorly-coached, undisciplined Illini missed their chance to score a major upset. The good news: if the Illini play this way against Penn State (which looked helpless against Iowa last night), this team might be able to overcome itself and win.

A College Football Parable

One of the characters in this video represents Ohio State's football team; another represents the Illini. Can you guess which is which?



Yes, Illinois did upset Ohio St. in 2007, but there are a couple of big differences between that year's team and this year's team. First, the '07 Illini team had already beaten two ranked teams (Penn State and Wisconsin); this year's team has a six-point win over Northern Illinois as its only win over an FBS opponent so far. Second, the '07 game was in Columbus, where the Illini have won five times since 1991, the last time the Illini beat the Buckeyes in Champaign, where Saturday's game will be played.

Most oddsmakers have the Illini as a 17 or 18 point underdog for Saturday, and even that seems generous toward the Orange and Blue. The best thing that could come out of Saturday's game is for the team to avoid major injuries and to not get too discouraged. Next weekend's opponent (Penn State) looked vulnerable against Temple's rushing game last week (156 yards), which means Illinois might have a chance against the Nittany Lions, even in Happy Valley.

Prediction: Ohio State 42, Illinois 6

90 Losses? Think Again!

Congratulations are in order for the Chicago Cubs. By virtue of their 1-0 win over the Padres on Thursday, they've proven that it's possible to have the highest payroll in the National League and not lose 90 games.

There is one positive note about the Cubs taking 3 of 4 from the Padres. Mike Quade now has a 22-12 record (15-4 on the road) since assuming the managerial duties. While most of these wins have come by a team not playing for anything at the expense of teams that were not playing for anything, this series was different. Going into San Diego, where the Padres were fighting for their playoff lives, and playing this well is a more impressive feat.

And if you thought the positive note was going to be something about revenge for the 1984 NLCS, let me put it this way. First of all, that was 26 years ago - I'd guess that most of the guys who are playing now (and probably a significant portion of fans) aren't old enough to even remember that series. It would be like saying that the Arizona Cardinals' 2008 NFC Championship Game win over the Philadelphia Eagles was revenge for the Eagles' win over the Chicago Cardinals in the 1948 NFL Championship Game. Second, a fifth-place team pushing the Padres to the brink of elimination doesn't even come close to making up for the 1984 Padres stealing the Cubs' World Series spot. It would only be true revenge if by winning these games, the Cubs took the Padres' playoff spot and then went on to the World Series from there - but it looks like we won't have to worry about that possibility for several years.

Ladies and Gentlemen, Presenting...Your First-Place Chicago Bears

The Bears are the only undefeated team in the NFC? Wow, I certainly didn't see that coming. Even if it is only week 3, an electric crowd and a thrilling 20-17 win over our most hated rivals on national TV to move into first place is about as good as it gets this early in the year. It was good to see some old friends return to form (pun intended) tonight. And speaking of old friends returning to form, take a bow, #54 (and continuing on the "old friends" theme - how weird to hear former Bears announcer Wayne Larrivee on the radio call for the Packers). It also helps to have one of our new friends (our big-money free agent defensive lineman) wreaking havoc both on defense and on special teams.

I probably shouldn't get too carried away. The Packers outgained the Bears 379-276 and had over ten more minutes of possession time. Of course, when another team wants to hand you the game (152 yards of Packers penalties, a couple of which negated Cutler INTs, and one that took a Packer TD off the board and led to the blocked FG), you need to be in position to take advantage of it, which the Bears were. So let's enjoy this one, and hope the Giants continue to be turnover prone (3 in each of their first three games) next Sunday night as the Bears shoot for a 4-0 start.

"You Won't Be Needing This"

First place in the NFC North is up for grabs Monday night. Bears. Packers. A rivalry going back to 1921. Need I say more? Of course I do, otherwise this post would be way too short.

I will say that saw some of the Giants game today, and they were an undisciplined mess. If the Bears can somehow get a win against the Packers, they'd have a leg up on Green Bay and a good shot at a 4-0 start. And with the softer part of the schedule after that....

Ah, whom am I kidding? The Bears are clearly setting me up to rip my heart out. Even without any semblance of a running game, Aaron Rodgers will have his way with the Bears' defense, and I feel like it will be a victory for the Bears if Jay Cutler gets through the game in one piece.

Prediction: Green Bay 31, Bears 17.

A Football-Free Weekend

No Illini game Saturday? No Bears game Sunday? There go all of my excuses to not mow the lawn. In any case, the red hot Illini (for whom two straight wins equals "red hot") have a bye week, which offers a great opportunity to assess the team's prospects for the rest of the season and for a bowl bid. Yes, I said a bowl bid. The Illini have two wins already, and looking at the schedule, I see three very winnable home games against Indiana, Purdue, and Minnesota (disclaimer - I understand that "winnable" doesn't equal "the Illini will win", as Zook-era teams have proven over and over).

But for argument's sake, let's give the Illini these three wins, which would make five and leave them needing one more win to become bowl-eligible. And yes, I've heard about the proposal to allow 5-win teams into bowl games this year, but I wouldn't count on that, and I don't like it anyway. Call me a traditionalist, but a team with more losses than wins shouldn't be in a bowl game. A team with an equal number of wins and losses - now that's a different story.

So with that backdrop, let's take a look at the remaining games on the schedule and see which (if any) would be a potential source of a sixth Illini win:

• Oct. 2 vs. Ohio State. Ummm...uhhh....Next!
• Oct. 9 at Penn State. Looking for trends with the Nittany Lions, I see that they've won every time they've hosted a non-Big Ten team from Ohio, but lost every time they've played on the road against teams ranked #1 in the country. Unfortunately, the Illini are probably closer in quality to the former group than the latter group, and this one's in Happy Valley.
• Oct. 16 at Michigan State. Sparty has looked good so far this year, what with their chicanery and all. But look at their Big 10 schedule: games against Wisconsin and at Michigan and games at Northwestern and against Iowa sandwiched around their home game against the Illini. Could this be a classic trap game for Sparty? A Zook-era team has gone to East Lansing with a freshman QB and left with a win before.
• Nov. 6 at Michigan. On the plus side, the Illini have beaten the maize-and-blue two straight times, and UMass did hang 37 points on the Wolverines in Ann Arbor. On the minus side, Michigan has a Heisman Trophy-caliber QB, and I think the universe would implode if Michigan lost three in a row to the Illini.
• Nov. 20 vs. Northwestern @ Wrigley Field. The Illini have lost 6 of their last 7 against the 'Cats, who are sort of the anti-Illini. Northwestern is well-coached and disciplined, with players who fit their system, which has continuity because they aren't constantly shuffling coordinators in and out every year. Northwestern is the designated home team for this one, so our best hope might be that Wrigley Field's other home team's bad luck rubs off on them.
• Dec. 3 at Fresno St. Wow - a game in California in December? We are going to a bowl game! Oh, wait, this is a road game on the regular season schedule - part of our Athletic Director's insane plan to ridiculously over-schedule a rebuilding program. Anyway, except for the ending, last year's game was a great one that could have gone either way. Maybe if the Illini have something to play for this year (a bowl bid), the rematch will go our way.

Well, there you have it. I don't see any obvious wins here, although some seem more winnable than others. If I had to rank them from best chance for a win to worst chance, I'd say Fresno St., Northwestern, Michigan St. Michigan, Penn St. and Ohio St. So while a sixth win is possible, I wouldn't hold my breath waiting for it, especially because I don't think I can hold my breath until December. For now, I'll just enjoy knowing that after this Saturday, the Illini will have gone three straight weeks without a loss.

I'll Take Potpourri for $200, Alex

Here it comes - the corned beef hash of blog posts.

You know that Ron Guenther has to be behind this proposal.

I'm excited about the upcoming Illini basketball season, but I'm worried that we probably have the only coach in the country who uses the word "mollycoddling".

I see that the Arizona Diamondbacks have hired Kevin Towers as their new GM. This is a good move for them - during his 15-year tenure as the GM of the Padres, he showed that he was not afraid of sabermetric analysis, and despite middle-of-the-road payrolls his team won four division titles and appeared in the 1998 World Series. However, the Padres lost a one-game playoff after being one strike away from another postseason appearance in 2007. Two sub-par seasons later, he was out of a job. The point? If Kevin Towers got fired for having that resume, how does Jim Hendry still have his job?

They Gone!

Congratulations to the AL Central champion Minnesota Twins, who became the first team to clinch a playoff spot tonight when the White Sox lost in Oakland. It must be fun to be a Twins fan and root for a well-run organization. The Twins won the AL Central last year, but after being swept out of the ALDS they upgraded their roster in an intelligent way. Instead of throwing lots of money at mediocre free agents (like some GMs would), they made a couple of low-budget free agent pickups, getting a starting second baseman and a power-hitting DH, who combined are making only $800,000 more than the Cubs are paying the combination of Jeff Samardzija and John Grabow. The Twins also picked up their starting shortstop in exchange for a guy who can't crack the starting outfield in Milwaukee. And they were able to cover for the loss of one of the best closers in baseball for the entire season, and the loss of one of the best first basemen in the AL for the second half of the season, and run away with their division.

Unlike recent Twins teams, this one isn't a hard-nosed, talent-challenged, overachieving bunch of piranhas. They have the second best record in the AL, and they earned it, with the second best run differential in the AL (both trailing only the Yankees). The Twins are a model for anybody who wants to put together a winning team within the confines of a budget, and I'd love it if the Cubs would ditch Hendry and find someone who could copy what they have done.

Hey, What's Going on Here?

How long has it been since the Bears won in Dallas? The last time it happened, Walter Payton was the leading rusher and Doug Flutie started at QB. How does a team break a streak like that, especially when they're a seven-point underdog? Making solid in-game adjustments helps - having the QB use a short drop and quick release to counteract a vicious pass rush, and deciding it's OK to throw the ball near the goal line, for example. So does forcing three turnovers while not turning the ball over once. It all added up to a 27-20 win and a 2-0 start for the first time since the 2006 NFC champions did it.

When Calvin Johnson apparently grabbed the football in the end zone late in the game last week, it looked like a loss to the Lions, and with games at Dallas, home against Green Bay, and at the Giants looming, an 0-4 start seemed likely. Now, the Green Bay game next Monday will be for the early lead in the NFC North, and the worst the Bears could be after their tough-looking season-opening stretch is 2-2. And while the Packers look very good right now, the Giants didn't look so hot tonight. After that, the schedule softens up a bit (at Carolina, Seattle, Washington, at Buffalo). I don't want to get too far ahead here, but a 6-2 start is not out of the question. Granted, the second-half schedule looks imposing, but it's at least possible that I won't have to wait until college basketball season starts to have a little sports excitement.

A Win is a Win, Right?

The Illini football team completed the directional school portion of their schedule by hanging on for a 28-22 win over Northern Illinois. Not very impressive, but at least it was better than a couple of other Zook-era efforts against MAC teams. Trying to catch everyone off-guard, Illinois changed up their lack of discipline problem this week; they played turnover-free football but piled up 85 yards in penalties. And as radio announcer Brian Barnhart noted during the game, these weren't cheapies like false starts. For example, a roughing the passer penalty took away what would have been the game-clinching interception, which led to a late NIU field goal and a nerve-racking on-side kick (which, fortunately, the Illini recovered).

Whatever the means, the result is a 2-1 record for the Illini - the first time they've been over .500 since beating Iowa in November, 2008. It should also be noted that the last time the Illini had a close shave against NIU in Champaign, they went on to win the Big 10 title outright and earned a berth in the Sugar Bowl. So I see no reason we can't do the same this year, provided that we can get Kurt Kittner, Brandon Lloyd, Rocky Harvey & Co. back into uniform. Barring that, I think I'll just enjoy the upcoming bye week, since I get the feeling I won't enjoy what comes after that.

L'shanah Tovah!

I'm not sure what's in store for me during Jewish calendar year 5771, but so far, it's off to a great start, and it keeps getting better. For Bruce Pearl, not so much:

"Parrish goes on to report that Pearl lied to NCAA assistant director of enforcement Kristen Matha when asked about the in-home event. Parrish's sources say the NCAA already had photographic evidence of Pearl and Craft inside his home at the time, which, if true, means Pearl was busted right away and not found out later."

It's ironic - not just in an Alanis Morisette way; it really is ironic - that Pearl, who got the Illini into hot water with the NCAA by (illegally) recording a conversation may now be undone by someone photographing him making illegal visits to a recruit.

Keep the good news coming!

Milestone #1 - Passed

Relax and rejoice, fellow Cubs fans - tonight's 5-1 win over the Cardinals means that our favorite team won't lose 100 games this year! While tonight's Reds' win officially eliminated the Cubs from the postseason, that win combined with our win over our hated rivals pushes the Cardinals 7 games back of the Reds, reducing their tragic number to 13. As for the Cards, you know things are going bad when a team can't score a run off of Jeff Samardzija.

Now, it's on to milestone #2 - getting the four wins necessary to finish with more wins than the unstoppable force that was the 2006 Cubs.

First Place! Woo-Hoo!

On a day where the Bears outgained the Lions 463 yards to 168 and knocked the Lions starting QB out of the game just before halftime, they still needed a technicality to beat the Lions 19-14. Bears' fans should be thankful that Matt Forte was there to provide some very powerful deodorant (the same goes for referee Gene Steratore). Otherwise, with the next three games being at Dallas, home against Green Bay, and at the Giants, we'd almost certainly be looking at an 0-4 start (not that 1-3 is anything to write home about).

Of course, this game shouldn't have been close, considering the yardage edge and the fact that the Lions played prevent offense for the entire second half with Matthew Stafford out of the game. Then again, the four Bears turnovers didn't help, nor did the 100 yards in penalties. And don't get me started on the Bears' decision to use the same goal-line playbook that Joe Paterno used in the 1979 Sugar Bowl. Seriously, they hire Mike Martz because he's some sort of offensive supergenius, and that's what they come up with - four runs up the middle on five plays from the one-yard line?

The good news is that Dallas appears to have a coaching staff that's just as stupid as ours, which gives us some hope. Wait, whom am I kidding? The Cowboys will probably be p***ed off about losing and take out their frustrations on the Bears. Whatever - I'm still going to enjoy looking down the standings at the Vikings while I can.

We're Number Three!

The Illini had everything going right for them tonight, and dominated the entire game on their way to an easy 35-3 win over SIU. And everything I worried about in my prediction post - the turnover battle (which Illinois lost 3-2), needing to put the game on the shoulders of Nathan Scheelhaase (who went 14-18 for 231 yards, 2 TDs, no INTs, and a QB rating of 222.2 for the game), SIU being amped for the game - didn't matter. All of which means that we're still (at worst) the third-best program in the state right now. And at least I was pretty close on calling the Illini's point total for the game.

Some might think this is just a win over a cupcake, but even if that's true, it's better than the alternative (as Virginia Tech and Minnesota discovered today). At the very least, this is something to build on, with another winnable game coming up next week at home against Northern Illinois, which had to hold on for a 23-17 win at home against North Dakota today. It would be nice to get out to a 2-1 start before we run into the twin buzz-saws of Ohio State and a trip to Happy Valley after our bye week. While the competition this week may not have been as tough as I anticipated, it was nice to see our freshman QB make big improvements from last week. If that continues, I can see Illini football becoming fun again in the not-too-distant future. And next year, it will be nice to open with a game like this instead of being fed to the Tigers.

Where's The Fire?

Apparently there isn't going to be much fire coming from Knoxville. Bruce Pearl admitted giving "misleading and incorrect information" (i.e. "lying") to the NCAA during their investigation of the Tennessee basketball program, and as a result his bosses slapped him with a punishment so the NCAA would get off their backs. Pearl will have to forfeit $1.5 million in salary over the next five years and cannot recruit off-campus for a year. And if you look really closely, you can see the marks where the ruler hit his knuckles.

So let me see if I've got this straight - 21 years ago, Pearl lied to the NCAA investigators about Deon Thomas. Now, he lies to the NCAA investigators about his own program. And yet people come rushing out to defend him. I especially love this quote from the cited ESPN article:

"Pearl recorded Thomas, who by then has committed to Illinois, admitting that he had received a car from an Illinois assistant and turned the tape over to the NCAA. Though the NCAA never was able to back up Pearl's claim, the subsequent investigation revealed other ridiculously minor violations and Illinois was handed a one-year postseason ban because the NCAA would have looked foolish if they had investigated Illinois for a year and not punished them in some way."

(Italics mine. Oh, and some of the other quoted material may represent my interpretations of these events.)

In other words, Pearl's allegations were completely bogus, but he's still a good guy because he was a "whistleblower". Don't get me wrong - I think whistleblowers provide a great service to society, but only if they're telling the truth. If you're a lying whistleblower, it kind of defeats the purpose.

Remember how Kelvin Sampson took Oklahoma to the Final Four? No, you don't, because now when you think of him you think of how he drove the Indiana basketball program off a cliff with his illegal and unethical behavior. So let's hope that even if this is Pearl's only actual punishment, the incident helps change the perception of Bruce Pearl from wronged man to wrongdoer. After twenty-plus years of waiting for vengeance, that would still be pretty sweet.

It Was (Almost) Twenty Years Ago Today...

The big question for the Fighting Illini football team this week is whether they will finish it as the third or the fourth best college football team in the state. Yes, right now I'd put U of I third of the three FBS teams - in the 2000s, Northern Illinois has 68 wins and 4 bowl bids; Northwestern has 62 wins and 5 bowl bids; Illinois has 45 wins and 2 bowl bids (yes, they're both BCS bowls, but there are no others). Southern Illinois, Saturday's Illini opponent, may be an FCS team, but they're no pushover, with seven straight seasons of nine or more wins. It's typical Illini luck that Ron Guenther finally schedules a pre-season game against a non-FBS opponent, and they come into the game ranked #2 in the FCS poll the week we play them. At least the game's not in Carbondale, so I guess that counts as progress. However, even with the home crowd, we can't presume a win for the Illini, especially since this will be like SIU's Super Bowl (much like Bradley's shot at the U of I basketball team last November, and remember how that turned out).

It's hard to draw conclusions based on the one game each team has played so far, particularly since SIU's was a 70-7 thrashing of Quincy. Oh, wait, it was the NAIA team, not that Quincy. But looking back at the last couple of years, one worrisome pattern has emerged that would favor SIU, and not the Illini - turnovers. I know it's a cliche to talk about turnovers, but in the last two seasons, SIU has been +8 and +17 in turnover margin, while the Illini have been -6 and -4. We saw what Scheelhaase did against Missouri in the second half, so we have to hope that he doesn't have to win the game for us, meaning he'll need a big dose of help from the running game.

Therefore, it's fitting that Saturday's game will mark the (almost) 20-year anniversary of Howard Griffith's record eight-TD performance against, yes, SIU (I was at that game - wow, am I getting old). Illinois will have to follow that script and pound the ball on the ground, keeping the pressure off Scheelhaase and (knock on wood) minimizing turnovers. I'm seeing a close game, but the home crowd will be abuzz from the celebration of Griffith's achievement (and abuzz from a full day of tailgating) and that should help to pull us through this one with our first win of the season.

Prediction - Illinois 31, SIU 24.

There's Smoke. Now Let's See Some Fire.

Oh, please, let this be true! According to ESPN's report of a potential investigation into Bruce Pearl's Tennessee basketball program:

With its football program already under an NCAA probe, the University of Tennessee is facing an investigation into its men's basketball program.

NCAA representatives are checking, in part, excessive telephone calls and the use of unauthorized phones to contact recruits, sources told ESPN.com Thursday.

It would be perfect retribution if Bruce Pearl would get into hot water with the NCAA over telephone calls, considering that his illegal recording of a phone conversation with Illini recruit Deon Thomas helped set the Illini basketball program back for a decade and unfairly tarnished the reputations of Jimmy Collins and Lou Henson (this may be a reason why Henson has not yet been inducted into the Basketball Hall of Fame). Let's hope there's something to this story.

R.E.S.P.E.C.T. - Gettin' Some From Fox TV

Good news, fellow Bears fans - Fox Sports doesn't think our team sucks! Well, maybe they do, but at least they think our season-opening clash against the similarly putrid Lions isn't the most unappetizing matchup this Sunday.

As proof, they'll be sending Thom Brennaman and Brian Billick to cover Sunday's game. As you can see from this chart, there are three crews below Thommy and Billick in their pecking order. The #7 crew is off this week (there are only six games on Fox this Sunday), and the #5 and #6 crews are both covering the NFC West intra-division matchups. So we have that going for us for now, but I have a feeling we'll be getting a steady diet of Kurt Warner with Chris Myers or Chris Rose by the end of the season.

Oh, and some sympathy is in order for poor Thommy. Instead of enjoying his beloved Reds battling for their first division title in 15 years, he'll be stuck with this stink-bomb of a football game. I suspect he'll at least be keeping an eye on the baseball scoreboard and trying to work in references to the Reds game as often as he can. If there's an over-under on how many times he mentions the Reds during this game, take the over.

At Least They Beat the Spread

Not much needs to be said about the specifics of Saturday's 23-13 Illini loss. In summary - Illinois executes well in the first half, Missouri adjusts in the second half, forcing the freshman QB to make big plays to win, which he was unable to do. However, the game was competitive throughout, which is more than I (and the oddsmakers) expected. It's difficult for me to find fault with the players or coaches for their effort. Against a team like Youngstown State (Penn State's opener), Eastern Illinois (Iowa's opener), Middle Tennessee St. (Minnesota's opener), or Towson (Indiana's opener), it would have been enough for a victory. But instead, Ron Guenther's insistence that his rebuilding team needed to open against the superior Tigers on a "neutral" field, year after year, has left the team 0-1 for the fourth straight year.

The best thing about Saturday's game is that it means this series has come to an end. Good news is on the horizon for the Illini's next head coach, however - after 18 years Guenther has finally figured out the knack of scheduling. Check out the 2011 schedule, which features eight home games, including five straight to start the year, with the first two against Arkansas St. and South Dakota St. That schedule will certainly help the new regime get off to a quick start next year and maybe even (gasp) make it to a bowl game, which is (almost) enough to make you feel sorry for Ron Zook, who's probably wondering why he never got to have such an advantageous schedule.

Mr. Bright Side

Today I'm choosing to look at the bright side of things.

Let's start with the Cubs (3rd highest MLB payroll), who beat the Mets (5th highest MLB payroll) in the battle of "teams who are getting the least bang for their buck". Thanks to winning seven of Mike Quade's first ten games as manager, the Cubs now have 58 wins. With 27 games left, they only need to go 5-22 to avoid losing 100 games, and 9-18 to exceed the win total of the putrid 2006 Cubs (which was looking doubtful not too long ago). Hey, why stop there? If the Cubs can go 15-12 the rest of the way, they wouldn't even lose 90 games! Go for it, Cubbies!

On to the Bears. Instead of panicking about a winless preseason, consider this - in 2008, the Detroit Lions went 4-0 in the preseason, then proceeded to go 0-16 in the regular season. Therefore, it's only logical to expect that a team that goes 0-4 in the preseason will go 16-0 in the regular season! It's official - you can book your tickets to Arlington Texas for Super Bowl XLV!

And to top it all off, college football starts tomorrow too! All this good fortune at once!

Snowball, this is Satan. Satan, this is...hey, where'd Snowball go?

Last December, the Missouri basketball team snapped a nine-game losing streak against the Illini in the Braggin' Rights basketball game. Does this mean that there's a chance that, for the sake of balance, the Illini football team is about to break their five-game losing streak in the Arch Rivalry on Saturday?

Nah, that won't happen. Prediction - Missouri 34, Illini 10.

More Sports Schadenfreude

On August 11, in this very blog, I stated flat out that I'd be rooting for the Reds - or more accurately, rooting against the Cardinals - to win the NL Central this year. Also on August 11, the Cardinals finished a three-game sweep of the Reds in Cincinnati and moved into first place by one full game (two games in the loss column). It looked like I had planted the kiss of death on Cincinnati by throwing my support behind their team.

However, in the last three weeks since that "telling sweep", an amazing turnaround has happened - the Reds have won 14 of their last 18 games, and the Cardinals have lost 13 of their last 18 games, so that the Reds have gone from a one-game deficit to a commanding eight-game lead in the division race. Oh - and the Cardinals' poor stretch started with losing 2 of 3 in St. Louis to the Cubs. Yay, Cubs!

Even better - the Cardinals now find themselves five games behind the wild-card leading Phillies. And enjoyable as it was to see Matt Holliday play a fly ball off his nuts last October, it's obviously much better if the Cardinals miss the postseason, which is looking more likely every day.

It's Football Season!

Now that the calendar has turned to September, I get to turn my attention away from the train-wreck that is the Cubs and focus on football. I'm glad to see that Phil Steele is not the only one predicting "big" things for the Illini this year (if you consider the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl "big"). Yahoo! Sports college football expert Tom Dinehart predicts that Illinois will upset Missouri on Saturday, going so far as to say that the stars are lining up for the Orange-and-Blue this year. I guess in Tom's world, having a lame-duck coach who's had one winning season in five years and is starting a freshman QB and breaking in coordinators on both sides of the ball constitutes "stars lining up".

But good news is on the horizon for the Illini football team - the Big Ten announced its realignment plans for football once Nebraska joins the conference in 2011. The Illini's division will include Ohio State, Indiana, Purdue, Wisconsin, and Penn State. This is good news for our yet-to-be-named coach next year - with fellow doormats Indiana and Purdue, around, there might be a couple of easy wins to be had every year. And if our knucklehead AD could figure out that we are trying to rebuild our program and not worry about strength of schedule as if we were competing for a national championship, I can see a scenario where Illinois at least starts becoming bowl-eligible on a regular basis - a marked improvement over the last 15 years of Illini football.

There's more good news out of the realignment announcement - the new divisions won't affect the basketball team. That's good, because having Ohio State, Purdue, and Wisconsin in a basketball division would make things awfully tough on the Illini every year, while Michigan State would have a cakewalk every year with Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, and Northwestern in their division. But since there is a conference tournament, there will be no divisional alignments in basketball, so after the Illini get back to where they should be this year, they shouldn't have any trouble sustaining it.

Thanks to Bears, Quarterback Controversy Continues

Now that the starters are off the field in tonight's Bears-Cardinals game, let's look at the box score to see how the Cardinals' two struggling quarterbacks did:

Derek Anderson - 7 for 12, 94 yards, 1 TD, 111.1 QB rating

Matt Leinart - 9 for 10, 84 yards, 1 TD, 135.0 QB rating

Yes, that's right. Matt Leinart has a 135 rating in this game. The Cardinals had a quarterback controversy coming into this game, and they still do, but now it's because the Bears defense made each quarterback look equally good.

And as I'm writing this, Bears sideline reporter Lou Canellis asked Julius Peppers if he's happy with the Bears' first-team defensive performance*, since they held the Cardinals to 14 points. Um, Lou, if you checked out the blogosphere, you might have read that during the first two preseason games, the two QBs whom the Bears "held" to 14 points led their offense to a combined total of 3 points against first-teamers.

*To Peppers's credit, he said he was not happy with their performance.

I'm not saying the Cardinals' performance tonight makes the Bears defense look really bad, but...I can't think of another way to finish this sentence.

Great Timing!

Just one day after I say that Matt Leinart will provide a test for the Bears first-team defense on Saturday, Cardinals coach Ken Whisenhunt pulls the rug out from under my prediction, naming Derek Anderson as his starter instead of Leinart. Poor Whisenhunt - after enjoying Kurt Warner's production the last two years, choosing between these two QBs must be like choosing between a case of jock itch and a case of hemorrhoids (note - it's an analogy only. I'm not saying Whisenhunt has either malady, or that either QB is either malady).

In any event, the Bears should be familiar with Anderson - last November, he helped gift-wrap a 30-6 Bears victory over the Browns. Anderson was 6-17 passing for 76 yards, with 2 interceptions and a nifty QB rating of 10.5 before spending the end of the game on the bench. Anderson has been marginally better than Leinart this preseason (24-41 for 193 yards, 1 TD, 2 INTs). However, the touchdown came in the 4th quarter of the first preseason game (against the Texans' backups), and last week he made 2 poor throws into the end zone, forcing his team to settle for a field goal when they should have had an easy TD. Consequently, even with the change in starting QBs, it looks like the point of my original post still stands. If the Bears can't stop Anderson, we're in for a long season.

Testing, Testing...

I haven't said too much about the specifics of any Bears preseason games, and for good reason - preseason football results are mostly meaningless ("my borderline NFL players are better than your borderline NFL players"). If you don't believe me, ask the NFL owners, who are trying to extend the regular season to 18 games while eliminating 2 preseason games (yes, I know it's about increasing revenue, but there's more revenue to be had because they'd be exchanging two meaningless games for two games that count).

Nevertheless, this Saturday's preseason game against the Arizona Cardinals offers an intriguing test for the Bears' defense, but not in the way you'd think. This is not the same Cardinals team that came to Chicago last November and steamrolled the Bears 41-21 (after jumping out to a 31-7 halftime lead). Without the retired Kurt Warner and the injured Larry Fitzgerald, the Cardinals offense has struggled in their two preseason games. Matt Leinart (Warner's replacement) has completed 10 of 13 passes but only for 77 yards in the two games, and the Cardinals' first-team offense has thus far generated only 4 first downs and no points.

Therefore, the Bears defense is in a no-win situation this week. If they perform well, it doesn't say much, because everyone's first-team defense has stopped the Cardinals. But if the Cardinals offense plays well this week after looking so bad for the last two weeks, it will be a sign that the defense is in trouble and that Bears fans are in for a difficult season.

Remember the Maine?

Apparently I was so happy the Cubs traded Aaron Heilman last year that I didn't notice that they actually received players in return. But they did, and one of those players, Scott Maine, is now on the major league roster. He was called up to replace Justin Berg...no, Jeff Gray...no, Brian Schlitter...no, Mitch Atkins...ah, some hard-throwing, generic, young right-handed middle reliever. I can't tell those guys apart - for all I know they're all the same pitcher.

And it's always great when two of my favorite things - Cubs baseball and Spanish-American War slogans - intersect.

Bears Sign Veteran Backup QB; Earth Continues Spinning on its Axis

At least one of the five sacks Jay Cutler absorbed during Saturday's Bears pre-season game was such a hard hit, it even knocked some sense into the Bears' front office. Faced with the prospect of a Cutler injury leaving the offense in the hands of Caleb "Mister" Hanie, Dan "Pac-Man" LeFevour, or the recently signed "With this offensive line, defenders will be stepping all over me like I'm a welcome" Matt Gutierrez (combined total - 9 NFL passes), the Bears relented from their hard-line stance last week by signing Todd Collins as a backup. Collins isn't an all-pro, but at least he has experience running an NFL offense, along with a career passer rating of 76.0 (for comparison's sake, Kyle Orton's career rating is 76.9).

Kudos to the front office for waking up and prying open their wallet to address one of the team's many glaring weaknesses.

The Widowmaker Strikes Again

During the 1949 season, just four years after managing the Cubs to the NL pennant, Charlie Grimm resigned as manager to become general manager. Since then, 21 different men have started a season as Cubs manager. Some arrived with a fabulous track record (Leo Durocher, Dusty Baker). For others, it was their first shot at managing (Lee Elia, Whitey Lockman). All had one thing in common - they couldn't get the team back into the World Series (let alone win it).

Lou Piniella clearly belongs in the "fabulous track record" group. Piniella managed the Reds to a World Championship and led the Mariners to four postseason appearances (the only ones in franchise history). In his two first years, he did a fantastic job with the Cubs, becoming the first manager to lead the team to back-to-back postseason appearances since Frank Chance. Piniella's managing played a big part in this; unlike Dusty Baker, who loved his "proven veterans", Lou played the guys who deserved to play - he benched Cesar Izturis for Ryan Theriot, and put rookie Geovany Soto on the playoff roster (and even started him in game 2 of the NLDS). But both years, the team was swept out of the postseason, holding a lead for a total of 4 innings in the the 6 losses.

In 2009, the Cubs made several major changes to their roster - at Piniella's request, they "got more left-handed", signing Milton Bradley and trading fan favorite Mark DeRosa to open up second base for Mike Fontenot. Despite a rash of injuries to key players (Ramirez, Lilly, Zambrano, Dempster), season-long slumps (Soto, Soriano), and the constant distractions brought on by Bradley, the Cubs held first place as late as August 4 and finished with a winning record. While Piniella should be given some credit for keeping the Cubs afloat, his managing was part of the problem - playing Koyie Hill literally every day while Soto was hurt; playing Aaron Miles at all; his constant refrain of "look, what do you want me to do?" in response to reporters' questions (answer: "your job"). However, the Cubs certainly seemed poised to at least compete for the division title again in 2010 and didn't look like one of the worst teams in baseball (on paper, anyway). But obviously, that didn't work out, and now Piniella is left with this mess as the final impression of his tenure as manager of the Cubs, and the job has claimed another victim who came in with great credentials.

Even all-time greats can go out on a sad note: Willie Mays flopping in the outfield in the 1973 World Series; Bob Gibson serving up a game-losing grand slam to Pete LaCock in his final inning in the major leagues; Carlton Fisk being released by the White Sox less than a week after setting the record for most games caught. And so it goes for Piniella - his 1835 wins are 14th all-time, and of the managers ahead of him, only four (Torre, Cox, LaRussa, and Mauch) aren't in the Hall of Fame (Torre, Cox, and LaRussa will be eventually). In spite of the 2010 season, the fact that he's seemingly been detached and uninterested for most of the season, and the way his managerial career ended with a 16-5 loss, I'd still say he's still one of the all-time greats (I'm not the only one, either), and (even if it's faint praise), the best and most successful Cubs manager since World War II.

Pathetic, Parts 1 Through 3

Pathetic, Part 1

If you haven't seen this play...wow! I'd call it a little league play, but I don't think even a little leaguer would let this happen, let alone a catcher who's supposed to be a defensive specialist. At least I think he's supposed to be a defensive specialist - his OPS is barely over .500, so he must be good on defense, right?

Pathetic, Part 2

If you wonder why Cubs players suffer from brain-lock, maybe they're just following the cue of Cubs management, as seen by this note at the end of today's game recap.

The Cubs called up OF Sam Fuld from Triple A Iowa to take the roster spot of 1b Derrek Lee, who was traded to Atlanta for prospects on Wednesday. The Cubs had told 1b Micah Hoffpauir he was being promoted, but because they just sent him down Monday he isn't eligible to come back up until next week.

I guess it's not too much of a stretch to go from not knowing that John Grabow shouldn't get a multi-year, $7.5 million contract to not knowing how the rules for calling players up from the minor leagues work, leaving Xavier Nady as the only true 1b on the roster. Way to go, front office!

Pathetic, Part 3

The 2006 Cubs, who lost 96 games despite the 3rd highest payroll in the NL (7th highest in MLB), were 53-69 after 122 games.

The 2010 Cubs, who have the highest payroll in the NL (3rd highest in MLB), are 50-72 after 122 games. Yes - this team has a chance to be worse than the team that completely quit on Dusty Baker in his final season as Cubs manager.

And not so pathetic

Everyone says people will come to Wrigley Field to sit in the sun and drink beer, regardless of how bad the product on the field is. Well, apparently there are limits to how many of those people there really are. Check out this "highlight" from Wednesday's game, and how many empty seats there are in the bleachers (on a gorgeous Wednesday afternoon, with school not yet back in session). Today's game had a paid attendance of 30,687 - that's about 10,000 less than capacity. And those attendance numbers don't figure to improve as the team continues to lose and the kids go back to school. The last time there were this many empty seats was the end of the aforementioned 2006 season, which led to Jim Hendry's offseason free agent spending spree (Soriano, Lilly, Marquis, DeRosa). This year, he won't be able to "fix" the team's problems by throwing money around, so I'm going to look at the silver lining at say that the next couple of years I'll have plenty of material to blog about.

DLee Dparts

That Derrek Lee is one smart guy. Three weeks ago, he rejected a trade to the Angels, who at the time were 8 games out of first place. His reward? A get-out-of-jail-free card in the form of a trade to the first-place Atlanta Braves. Good for Derrek. In the last three weeks, he's gone on a bit of a hitting tear (especially against the Cardinals - 4 HR in 3 games), so he's no longer last among NL first basemen in OPS; in fact, he's a slight upgrade over the guy he's replacing, Troy Glaus.

A cynic might say that Lee's hot streak has come with his team completely out of the running and is just a salary drive in what's probably Lee's last shot at a big free agency payday. However, I'm stuffing a sock in that cynic's mouth and duct-taping over it. Instead, I'll choose to remember Lee for his fantastic 2005 season in which he led the NL in hits, doubles, batting average, slugging, OPS, OPS+, and total bases. I still think Lee should have won the MVP award that year (he finished 3rd) and would have had a better chance if his pinhead manager hadn't put two OBP sinkholes in the two spots in front of Lee in the lineup every day.

As for the trade, the Cubs received salary relief for the last 6 weeks of Lee's contract plus three pitching prospects from the Braves. The last time the Cubs received three pitching prospects in a trade with the Braves was in 1999 when they traded Terry Mulholland and Jose Hernandez for Ruben Quevedo, Joey Nation, and Micah Bowie. Yikes - that didn't work out too well for the Cubs. But that was Ed Lynch's trade. I'll just check Hendry's trade record on Braves' pitching prospects...hmmm, let's see...here we go. Juan Cruz for Andy Pratt. Umm, uhhh...maybe the third time's the charm?

NOOOOOOOO!

Surprise - it looks like he's back again. And the worst part? Not that it means the Bears can kiss their hopes of finishing in second place good-bye. That might work out in everyone's favor, as four straight seasons of missing the playoffs would have to mean the end of the Angelo-Smith regime in Chicago.

No, the worst part is that now we're going to have to go through this drama queenery and media kvelling again next year.

Anyway, I've developed a theory - I think that he thrives on media attention, so I'm not going to write his name anymore. I'll try and pass this idea along with the hope that if everyone follows my lead, and no one pays him any attention, he'll just go away forever.

Spoiler Alert!

At the end of play Monday, the Reds hold a one-game lead over the Cardinals for the NL Central lead, and the Giants hold a half-game lead over the Cardinals for the NL Wild Card.

The Cubs' records against those three teams so far this season:

Against Cincinnati: 3-10

Against San Francisco: 1-3

Against St. Louis: 5-4

So as of right now, the Cubs are keeping the Cardinals out of the postseason - not just by beating the Cardinals more often than not, but also by curling up into the fetal position against the two teams the Cardinals are chasing. When your team is 19 games under .500, ruining your archrival's season is the best you can hope for. Keep up the good work, Cubbies!

Pizza Pizza!

I don't know who Phil Steele is, or what kind of prediction algorithm he uses, but he projects that Ron Zook & Company are going bowling this year! Granted, it's the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl, but after appearing in only 3 bowl games in the last 15 years, any postseason game will do, even if it requires spending Boxing Day in Detroit. This would be a big deal for the Illini football program, because if you earn one bid to the Little Caesar's Pizza Bowl, you get the second bid for free.

As for the Illini basketball team, actual good news may be in store. According to SI's Andy Glockner, the Illini were one of the unluckiest teams in the NCAAs last year and are one of his five teams that can expect a turnaround in that department. As he puts it:

The Illini pretty much return everyone from a team that was mildly unlucky last year, finishing about a game and a half worse than expected, which likely cost them an NCAA tournament bid....Still, if they can get a boost from former Illinois Mr. Basketball, Brandon Paul, who shot the ball terribly last year, the Illini should be a serious threat in the Big Ten.

Considering the Cubs' lousy record in one-run games, I think it's about time for one of my teams to have some good luck come their way. And if it's going to happen to one of my teams, I'd prefer it not to be a team that would just use it to get to mediocrity - I'd like it to be the one that could actually do something worthwhile with it.